OAKS WINNER AND THE 20-1 THIRD: Daqman’s 1-2-3 produced winner and third in the Oaks yesterday, Minding (WON 10-11) his only Fortune Cookie of the first day at Epsom – there are three this afternoon – and Harlequeen (3rd 14-1) his 21.0 BETDAQ outsider, staked to win 110 points, 40 for the place.
FORTUNE BUILDS UP TO 94 POINTS: Fortune Cookies now go 94 points in profit to 20-point level stakes; the new sequence of Pot-of-Gold bets 34.50. Daqman and Pricewise (he was on the gamble Tullius) drew 1-1 after Harlequeen’s place, and the score is now 35-14.
DAQMAN’S DOZEN DERBY-DAY COOKIES
ANTE-POST 4.30 Epsom Derby
BANKER NAP 2.35 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.30 Epsom Derby
CHALLENGE Daqman-Pricewise head-to-head: 2.00, 2.35 and 4.30 Epsom.
DAQ MULTIPLES Doubles 2.30 with the Derby
DERBY ABC GUIDE Wednesday Archive
FORTUNE COOKIES Arabian Queen, Found (both 3.45 Epsom), US Army Ranger (4.30 Epsom)
OUTSIDERS 13.0 and 14.0 in the Dash
PLACE LAY 4.30 Epsom
POT-OF-GOLD 3.45 Epsom Dash
STATS Cloth Of Stars Ticks 10 Derby Boxes
VALUE BETDAQ Derby overround 102%; Dash 105%
CLOTH OF STARS TICKS TEN DERBY BOXES
BREEDING Cloth Of Stars, Deauville, Idaho, Port Douglas, Ulysees, US Army Ranger
CLASS Cloth Of Stars, Deauville, Harzand, Port Douglas, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
DISTANCE Across The Stars, Red Verdon, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
DRAW Across The Stars, Algometer, Biodynamic, Cloth of Stars, Deauville, Harzand, Idaho, Massaat, Port Douglas, Shogun, Ulysees, Wings Of Desire
FORM Algometer, Cloth Of Stars, Harzand, Moonlight Magic, Red Verdon, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
FIGURES Across The Stars, Algometer, Cloth Of Stars, Harzand, Massaat, Red Verdon, Ulysees, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
JOCKEY Across The Stars, Cloth Of Stars, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
PREP RACES Cloth Of Stars, Deauville, Massaat, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
RATINGS Massaat 116, Wings Of Desire 114, Deauville 113
GOOD GROUND Algometer, Cloth Of Stars, Humphrey Bogart, Moonlight Magic, Port Douglas, Red Verdon, Shogun, US Army Ranger
GOOD-SOFT Algometer, Cloth Of Stars, Massaat, Moonlight Magic, Red Verdon, Ulysees, Deauville
SOFT-HEAVY Cloth Of Stars, Harzand, US Army Ranger
STAMINA Across The Stars, Biodynamic, Cloth Of Stars, Deauville, Harzand, Idaho, Massaat, Port Douglas, Ulysees, US Army Ranger
TRAINER Across The Stars, Cloth of Stars, Deauville, Idaho, Port Douglas, Ulysees, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire
TOTAL Cloth of Stars 10, US Army Ranger 9, Wings Of Desire 9, Across The Stars 6, Deauville 6, Massaat 6, Ulysees 6, Harzand 5, Port Douglas 5, Algometer 4, Idaho 4, Red Verdon 4
Note: Total is for good-to-soft ground. Form = won 50% starts. Figures = In first three all starts after debut.
RANGER WILL KNOW HOW TO FINISH THE JOB
4.30 Epsom (Derby Stakes, ABC Guide Wednesday Archive): I’ll cut to the chase. I’m sticking with US Army Ranger. There are a lot of pluses in the list above but negatives strip the opposition naked, starting with his own stablemates.
Idaho, Deauville, Port Douglas and Shogun simply haven’t won their races. Such horses don’t win Derbys. That also goes for Across The Stars, Biodynamic and Humphrey Bogart.
If the Deauville tongue-tie is off-putting, how about Port Douglas’s being festooned in tongue-tie and blinkers? They don’t win Derbys.
What such a horse can do, and do very well, given the job of storming a pace, is take the sting out of the opposition and set it up for one with a high enough cruising speed to take the baton and finish the job.
Port Douglas did that flagship work so well that the cruiser, US Army Ranger, got up alongside a million miles clear but ran too green to take the Chester Vase off him; got to the front and wandered and wondered – what do I do now? – almost dropping the baton, which Port Douglas didn’t completely let go of.
It must be said that rider of both winner and second seemed to tread water momentarily, waiting for the Ranger to finish the job. That race, and subsequent homework at Ballydoyle, will ensure he knows that job today.
Cloth Of Stars was supplemented by Andre Fabre after an easy win – his fourth, from good ground to heavy – in the Prix Greffulhe, a trial previously won by Montjeu (French and Irish Derbys) and Pour Moi (English Derby).
There’s some thing gawn wrong with the handicapping system if he is on 109 and the one he beat two-and-a-half lengths in the Greffulhe is 112.
That Cloth Of Stars misses the French Derby tomorrow speaks volumes. The race looks second class and he would have taken it for sure,
On collateral form, he finishes in front of Moonlight Magic, who got bogged down in the Ballysax mud behind Harzand, who looks a stamina-laden Cup horse but would come into it with rain this afternoon. I’ll lay against that happening.
With three times second out of four, Massaat has revealed a bridesmaid trend – lacks the killer burst at the finish – though it would be nice to see him find more at today’s trip and place for a small stable.
John Gosden goes for a huge double, running Dante winner Wings Of Desire here and the third horse, Foundation, at Chantilly as likely favourite for the French Derby. Ulysees beat nothing well at Newbury and needs to find another stone.
ORDER-IN: 1 US Army Ranger, 2 Wings of Desire, 3 Cloth of Stars
WORD HAS IT THAT STOUTE WINS THE OPENER
2.00 Epsom Sir Michel Stoute has landed this race three times in the decade and Poet’s Word runs instead of Stargazer who won the Stoute prep for this at Sandown. Is he a better animal than Stargazer or is he deputy dawg because of injury to that one? We are not told.
Talking of dogs, Gawdawpalin looks like one, mustering only a 75 rating against those at the top of the handicap with 95 but, beware, Sylvester Kirk also farms this race: two winners since 2009, at 10-1 and 16-1.
However, ‘Gawdy’ was a long way behind Cartago at Newbury, along with Prince Of Arran. Soldier In Action was last, struggling when hampered. Intriguing that he was fourth in the Stargazer race and the ‘moral’, runner-up giving the weight to Derby hope Red Verdon at Chester.
All points to a duel between Cartagoa nd the unexposed Poets Word, though one or two others are also ‘dark’, Banish in particular.
SAYANA THE BANKER TO PAY FOR YOUR DAY
2.35 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) Sayana is a very strong traveller who looks sure to poach this Group 3 from a set of handicappers, and seems to be the banker to win the spending money for the day. Fill your BETDAQ wallet.
3.10 Epsom (Coronation Cup) My Fortune Cookies, Found and Arabian Queen, have a huge task against King George winner Postponed.
But, if Arabian Queen runs keen on ground with some cut, she could set up a sensational set-to, with Found and Simple Verse two fillies of power and substance potentially capable of cracking the entire horse, Postponed, who prefers a sound surface.
The fillies’ allowance puts them within striking distance; their age advantage takes them past him if they have made normal improvement.
Found beat Golden Horn last year and ran him to half a length in America. I took the 3.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
POT OF GOLD WINS 84 POINTS: IT’S MAGIC!
3.45 Epsom (Dash) A revitalised Duke Of Firenze, winner of this in 2013 from stall 19, returns three years on as favourite from the adjacent stall 20 after scoring at York, only his second win since.
But the three successes were for different stables – Stoute, Cowell and now Griffiths – and I reckon he’s a ‘holiday horse’, one who relaxes in a new environment snd then goes stale again.
It’s just as bad to be ultra-consistent like Maljaa and Seeking Magic because the handicapper won’t let go. Neither has won of his current mark, albeit Seeking Magic was controversially disqualified at Goodwood.
And he was second in this race, beaten a head, off 4lb higher in 2014. The winner, Caspian Prince (stable out of form) is now 6lb worse off.
Stalls 14 to 19 have won six out of 10, more fuel to t he case for Seeking Magic (13.0 on BETDAQ) but also a box ticked for the chances of Mukaynis (14.0 offers), an impover who stays further but might have the legs for this.
I think Seeking Magic should be where Duke Of Firenze is in the market, 7.0 this morning, and I shall back him as if he were that price, a triple bonus in a 105% orange which makes up the Pot Of Gold bet: 7 x 7 for 50 points but keep the stakes at 7 x 12 = 84 (bonus of 34 points)
ORDER-IN: 1 Seeking Magic, 2 Maljaa, 3 Mukaynis
DAQMAN BETS (staked as stated)
2.00 Epsom
BET (to win 30) 6pts win CARTEGO and (to win 20) 8.5pts win POET’S WORD
2.35 Epsom
GOLD BANKER BET: 30pts win (nap) SAYANA
3.10 Epsom
BET (to win 30) 10pts win FOUND
3.45 Epsom
POT-OF GOLD BET (wins 84): 7pts win SEEKING MAGIC, plus..
BET (to win 30) 3.5pts win MALJAA and 2.3pts win and place MUKAYNIS
4.30 Epsom (THE DERBY)
ANTE-POST BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 10pts win US ARMY RANGER
TODAY (to win 30): 5.5pts win WINGS OF DESIRE
LAY for a place (to lose 10pts): HARZAND
Daq Multiples
BET 4 x 2pt win doubles Cartego and Poet’s Word (2.00 Epsom) with US Army Ranger and Wings Of Desire (4.30 Epsom)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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