WELCOME TO DERBY DAY ON BETDAQ: Daqman has prepped you for the race so you are a thoroughbred punter and, if you are just starting out with the BETDAQ exchange, you are guaranteed NO COMMISSION, despite the fantastic value to all customers of ONLY 103% the entire Derby field this morning. Compare that with the Total SP of 118% for the last two years.
* See How They Won road to Epsom: Tuesday’s Daqman
* ABC guide to all 16 runners: Wednesday’s Daqman
* Yesterday: 7-2 nap on Derby eve
* Today: Daqman’s verdict on the big race
7-2 NAP AND 10 WINNERS IN 9 DAYS: Daqman missed out on the Oaks when his 14-1 BETDAQ bet, Dance Sequence (2nd 7-1), wandered as she challenged the winner (‘with a leg in four counties,’ as they say). But Daqman already had a nap in the bag!
WON 7-2 TEEJ A (Friday nap)
WON 9-4 WANNABE BRAVE (Thursday)
WON 3-1 CHANGE SINGS (Wednesday nap) BETDAQ 4.1
WON 9-4 CRIMSON ROAD (Tuesday) BETDAQ XSP 3.57
WON 11-2 MYSTERY MONARCH (Monday) BETDAQ 7.71 taken
WON 6-4 MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Sunday)
WON 9-2 INISHERIN (Saturday)
WON 10-11 ROSALLION (supernap) Haatem 2nd 6-1 same race
WON 9-4 ELECTRIC STORM (Friday nap) BETDAQ 6.4 taken
WON 1-2 ROYAL RHYME (Thursday supernap)
WISDOM OF THE DERBY DRAW
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (The Derby) ABC GUIDE: See Daqman Thursday.
ONLY half a dozen in the Derby field have a rating which would have won the last 14 Derbys. And, again, just six are drawn where the winners come from.
In the ABC guide, only three contenders commanded a full set of keys for rating, form, stamina and stable.
If those keys, together with the draw, unlock the door to this year’s £882k Derby winner’s prize, you have one horse.
🎩 ANCIENT WISDOM is boosted to ABCDE, where E is key for the draw, with Aidan O’Brien losing that final key, with his main contenders in the market, City of Troy and Los Angeles, departing from gates 1 and 4.
Only one winner in 14 has coped with the clear disadvantage of being drawn lower than 5: subsequent King George winner Adayar (Charlie Appleby) got a bad start from the one stall, which helped to determine his route and conserve his energy.
🎩 CITY OF TROY tries to ‘do an Auguste Rodin’, running badly in the Guineas but taking the main prize at Epsom, but his chance of a copycat Derby win are much slimmer from the one stall; Auguste Rodin came out of gate 10.
🎩 LOS ANGELES is known for lazy homework, so it can hardly be that gallops reports which has closed him in on City Of Troy in some bookmaker’s lists, more likely the worry that City of Troy remains last year’s talking horse until he proves himself again.
Los Angeles comes out behind Ambiente Friendly on a line through Illinois and, in turn, Ambiente Friendly has ground to make up on Ancient Wisdom, if last year’s form holds good.
This also applies to Dancing Gemini, only fifth to Ancient Wisdom in the Doncaster Futurity, and just a length better on this year’s form than Diego Velasquez, who has been switched to tomorrow’s French Derby.
So it all seems to make a case as easy as ABC, with the economics of the market helping, to plunge on Ancient Wisdom.
But Ancient Wisdom was fair walloped by a colt called Economics when he ran away with the Dante.
Economics was pulled out of the Derby, after bleeding from the nose, and he’s on the easy list.
The only future entry connections will now own up to is the Irish Champion Stakes in September, which in itself is an admission that the Dante trip suits him and he would be no Derby horse.
If, after today’s race, he is seen as six lengths better than the Derby winner, he will never have to race again!
In fact, several Derby stars have been placed in the Dante without winning it. Ancient Wisdom may add to the list, if the going hasn’t dried up too much.
I take Los Angeles for second on the grounds that he’s not flashy at home and his trial win at Leopardstown could have brought him forward no end.
Betdaq Betting Exchange : DAQMAN’S one-two at morning offer on BETDAQ: 6.8 Ancient Wisdom, 7.4 Los Angeles,
COLLECT EARLY ON COLUMBINE
⭕ 2.00 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) This early clash of the generations for fillies and mares over a mile+ is currently 5-3 to the four-year-olds in the last nine seasons, with just one winner in seven years bigger than 9-2 at SP.
On Lays Logic, I can’t back Running Lion, whose sole success on turf was a Listed on the soft. I took 5.6 on BETDAQ Chic Columbine.
The three-year-old gets 12lb weight for age from the Gosdens’ grey. Won four in a row last autumn, acting on most surfaces: places on firm twice; wins on AW, then good, then soft twice on turf. After the break, scored again on heavy at Saint-Cloud.
⭕ 2.35 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) Stalls 1, 2, 3 have won eight out of 10 in the decade, all ages including the then eight-year-old Regal Reality from Highland Reality by just three parts of a length.
Epictetus won the Blue Riband Trial here over 1m 2f (soft) before taking a mile Group 3 at Goodwood (soft).
He reappeared, gelded, at Ascot on the first of May and is big value each-way in an eight-runner race if there’s still cut in the ground. BETDAQ 9.7
‘LETHAL’ DASH AT THE DOUBLE
⭕ 3.10 Epsom (Dash; 3yo only; class 3) Punters are set a daunting task before the Derby: find the winners of a big-field Dash TWICE!
It may help to look at extremes of the draw. The two races together have produced winners from stalls 1, 1, 2, 5 and on the other side 13, 14, 16, 17, 19.
Myconian (BETDAQ 52.0) is interesting out of gate 6: Tom Marquand rode her 6th of 23 in the Windsor Castle and 5th of 14 in another big field at Meydan.
Sturlasson (BETDAQ 10.5), stall 17 of 17, ran away with a big–field maiden at Navan the last day and Oisin Murphy now takes over.
⭕ 3.45 Epsom (Dash; all ages; class 2) Looking For Lynda, from the one stall, and Lethal Nymph (from 2) appeal at the weights, both placed in big fields the last day.
Hollie Doyle now takes over on Looking For Lynda, who failed by only about a length to give 10lb to Night On Earth in April.
Lethal Nymph has dropped a stone since last Spring, and was back to form for a claimer, second at York the last day.
Silky Wilkie (15) was runner-up in this race last year when 8lb higher and denied a run.
He’s down 11lb in weight and has cheekpieces first time.
BETDAQ value 5.9 Silky Wilkie, 8.6 Looking For Lynda, 21 Lethal Nymph
‘ORDER’ IN: THE REST NOWHERE
⭕ 6.15 Doncaster: Are you drowning your sorrows, or still cheering them on to the best champagne?
Try a helter-skelter ride on the Frankel colt High Order, still in the ‘Ascot Derby’ (King Edward V11 Stakes) but ‘a bit of a lad’.
He and enjoyed not seeing another horse when he made all at Southwell in April!
High Order, who could be the second royal winner of the week, after Gilded Water’s success at Chepstow, needs experience and the first time cheekpieces to help him concentrate out on his own. BETDAQ 4.0
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 14, nap)
BET 3pts win CHIC COLUMBINE
2.35 Epsom (win 10 total)
BET 1pt win and place EPICTETUS
3.10 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win STURLASSON
BET 1pt win and place MYCONIAN
3.45 Epsom (win 20)
BET 4pts win SILKY WILKIE
BET 2.6pts win LOOKING FOR LYNDA
BET 1pt win and place LETHAL NYMPH
4.30 Epsom (win 30)
BET 5pts win ANCIENT WISDOM
BET 4.6pts win LOS ANGELES
6.15 Doncaster (win 12)
BET 4pts win HIGH ORDER
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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