FULL DERBY-DAY SERVICE AND A 26.0 BET TO BEAT THE FAVOURITE: It’s Derby Day! What better after wacky results on the first day at Epsom than a freaky nap at 7.8 on BETDAQ. Daqman finds value in the Dante winner and in a dark horse for Ireland at 26.0 but it may take more freak weather to stop the favourite, Bolshoi Ballet. Stats and facts are listed below and a full ABC guide appeared in Daqman on Thursday.
RAIN THEN SNOWFALL IN 16-LENGTHS DETTORI OAKS SENSATION: Daqman’s Oaks bet, staked twice to win a total of 100 points, Divinely (3rd 20-1), was the value he promised but fell foul of a wet afternoon and a wonder ride by Dettori on 16-lengths winner, Snowfall. The first Fortune Cookie, Al Aasy, described as a Nijinsky in his stable, found such daisy-cutting qualities crushed by Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup.
SUN SHINES ON THE LADS AT EPSOM
RAIN: yesterday changed the results and changed parasols to umbrellas. Today the sun is shining but it won’t dry up to the ‘good to firm’ it was early in the week; probably ‘good’, may be ‘good to soft in places’ Times were all around 6 secs slow yesterday.
EPSOM DERBY RESULTS BY STALL: Last 11 years: 8, 7, 5, 10, 12, 8, 9, 14, 10, 7, 12
RESULTS BY RATING: Last 11 years: 108, 113, 121, 109, 119, 118, 110, 109, 117, 118, Nil
PRIZEMONEY WON AND TODAY’S OFFICIAL RATINGS: 119 Mac Swiney £389k; 117 Bolshoi Ballet £76k; 114 One Ruler £87k; 112 Hurricane Lane £112k; 112 Gear Up £109k; 111 Mohaafeth £33k; 111 Youth Spirit £59k
WINNING TRAINERS WITH RUNNERS: Aidan O’Brien 8, Charlie Appleby 1, Jim Bolger 1, William Haggas 1.
WINNING JOCKEYS WITH RIDES: Frankie Dettori 2, Ryan Moore 2, William Buick 1, Kevin Manning 1.
OWNERS: Sue Magnier and Michael Tabor have been among co-owners ‘The Lads’ to land the Derby nine times; Bolshoi Ballet would be No 10.
KEY RACE: Dante Stakes (eight winners), won this year by Hurricane Lane
EXPERIENCE: Two to four races (8/11) but must have won Group race (8/10). See ABC guide in Daqman on Thursday.
BALLET A STEP FROM DERBY GLORY
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (The Derby): 1m 4f; 3-yo-colts; 12 runners; £647k
1 BOLSHOI BALLET Mac Swiney, one of Jim Bolger’s pair of Guineas winners in May, was only fourth behind six-lengths Leopardstown Trial winner Bolshoi Ballet.
The Galileo colt has all the attributes: relaxes, travels, lengthens, quickens off a pace, and only the bad luck of deteriorated ground would stop him winning today.
I was putting up two Frankel colts as his main rivals for those who don’t like short shots, but there was some doubt this morning about the participation of Mohaafeth so that leaves Hurricane Lane and my dark horse.
2 SOUTHERN LIGHTS Step forward the Sea The Stars colt related to High Chaparral on the dam’s side. Had to be switched when checked in the Leopardstown trial. Stable in better form now and the ‘hidden horse’ of the race.
3 HURRICANE LANE They reckon High Definition misses this as a ‘good thing’ for the Irish Derby, in which case this Frankel colt, unbeaten winner of the Dante Stake, must be considered here, after outpacing High Definition, the favourite, in third. Stamina-packed pedigree.
4 MOHAAFETH William Haggas has two massive improvers in the yard: one he calls Nijinsky is Al Aasy, beaten by the ground yesterday; the other is this Frankel colt out of a Sea The Stars mare.
Mohaafeth was so underestimated they thought about the London Gold Cup, a handicap at Newbury, but he cantered over a 107 colt at Newmarket and, even lifted to 111, can be upgraded.
5 MAC SWINEY Strictly, the best three-year-old in the business after pipping stablemate Poetic Flare in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but he was well outpaced by Bolshoi Ballet in the Leopardstown Derby Trial and may not stay today’s trip.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.5 Bolshoi Ballet, 9. Hurricane Lane, 26 Southern Lights.
NOT SUCH A FREAK TO NAP AT 7.8
⭕ 2.00 Epsom Not a winning favourite in sight in the recent history of this handicap.
Though not looking quite ready – fizzy in the prelims and in the race – Patient Dream won well over the CD at the Spring meeting here but that was class 4.
King Frankel was an excellent second in the London Gold Cup at Newbury at this level but best at the weights may be Freak Out.
Tom Marquand takes over on the Kodiac gelding who steps up in trip with cheekpieces for the first time, after coming from last to second over a mile at Newmarket on the last day.
George Boughey is not only training them well, he’s placing them well and ready to win.
BETDAQ value 7.8 Freak Out
STATEMENT THE DARLING AT LAST
⭕ 2.35 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) The give in the ground should help Statement who didn’t like it firm in the 1,000 Guineas after being runner-up in the Fred Darling.
But probably more rain is needed for Parent’s Prayer who has twice finished in the first four at Group-3 level on the soft.
Maamora scored at Sandown in August over a mile, running on strongly as if the final hill won’t be a bother today.
After Nazuna ran second in a Group 2 at Newmarket, Roger Varian took her to the Breeders Cup so must think a lot about her. But she hasn’t raced this year and his fillies were all well beaten in the Oaks yesterday.
BETDAQ value 3.55 Statement
DREAM SET FOR A THIRD DIOMED
⭕ 3.10 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) Century Dream has won the Diomed twice in the last three years but has an outside stall this time after scoring from gates 1 and 3.
Oh This Is Us, beaten a length or less in this race twice, is eight now but, for sure, one or both of these two will get involved, though I fancy at least one new name on the results board.
Could be Prince Eiji. Oh This Is Us beat him a head in the Queen Anne Stakes Trial at Ascot in April, but that was Eiji’s first race of the season.
Bell Rock has won three starts on the Rowley Mile and was third in the Cambridgeshire, so Epsom hardly seems to suit.
Duke Of Hazzard tested his wind surgery – behind Oh This Is Us at Ascot – but the blinkers and tongue-tie are back on today. Should that prompt us to bet or should we think they’re having to throw everything back at him again. Frankie Dettori might help!
I can’t help thinking Century Dream is still capable of seeing this lot off. Would be much shorter if he hadn’t run behind Palace Pier in the Lockinge (Group 1).
BETDAQ value 3.3 Century Dream
MISSION POSSIBLE AT THE WEIGHTS
⭕ 3.45 Epsom (Dash) The stress for the mob in the middle of trying to hold their pitch and get across to one side or another usually leads to victory from one of the flanks: stalls 1 and 2 have taken the race a total of five times in eight seasons, the others coming from 14, 16 and 17.
Previous winner Ornate is drawn low, and I expect him to tow a surge on the outer fringe of the far-side group.
Recon Mission (stall 2) was well behind in Ornate’s year but has slipped down the handicap and was back to form the last day here at Epsom. Lord Riddiford (5) is 13lb lower on turf than for his fine run of form on AW.
On the stands’ rail, well-handicapped Sunday Sovereign, very lightly raced, and stablemate Copper Knight look a formidable force for Tim Easterby out of stalls 16 and 19.
But on York form, Mondammej (third, short of room) has a pull on Copper Knight and can breathe down his neck from gate 18. Stone Of Destiny is well drawn but high in the weights now.
BETDAQ value 15.5 Mondammej, 10 Recon Mission, 6.6 Sunday Sovereign
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 20, nap)
BET 3pts win FREAK OUT
2.35 Epsom (win 10)
BET 4pts win STATEMENT
3.10 Epsom (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win CENTURY DREAM
3.45 Epsom (win 50 x 2, win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win MONDAMMEJ
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win RECON MISSION
BET 3.5pts win SUNDAY SOVEREIGN
4.30 Epsom (win 50 x 2, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 6.25pts win HURRICANE LANE
BULL’S-EYE BET 2pts win SOUTHERN LIGHTS
BET 12pts win BOLSHOI BALLET
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
