33.0 AND 40.0 BIG-RACE BETDAQ VALUE: Price-wise and daring, Saturday-king Daqman finds some fabulous offers on BETDAQ: 33.0 and 40.0 among them this morning.
20-1 COINCIDENCE DOUBLE IS ON THE CARDS: His shorter shots include Gabrial and Lily’s Angel. So we’re still looking at 20-1 or more if you fancy a coincidence double on Daq Multiples.
25 POINTS PROFIT FROM THREE WINNERS: Daqman was in the money yesterday from Araldur (WON 2-1), Ulys Du Charmil (WON 15-8) and Purcell (WON 4-5) for a profit on the day of 25.30.
2.05 Kempton Fitness and the right draw in a targeted race. What more do you want: they could be turnkey facts again for last year’s winner, Shamaal Nibras, who was always going to attempt a repeat.
But also low drawn and targeting a win when fresh – as last season – is Glen Moss, one of several interesting bookings for William Buick today.
2.20 Doncaster Mile Gabrial has been placed in Group 1 behind Frankel and in Group 3, and Richard Fahey reckons his horses more forward than most.
Chandlery is a Group-2 winner who has been off the track with a broken pelvis and, though working well at home again now, is unlikely to be asked serious questions first time back.
Highland Lodge, weighted to reverse Salisbury places with Sovereign Debt, took a Group 2 in Germany but has never won on his reappearance; in fact, all his success has come between June and August.
It’s one thing that Gabrial can go close on form and another that he seems set to score by default, with his nearest rivals having issues. It all makes for massive value in his 4.9 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.15 Kempton (Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes) A bet in a fillies’ race at this time of year would not require any further proof that I am overdue a visit by the men in white coats.
There will be a thousand of them – fillies I mean – looking for some black type to enhance their paddocks prestige in Listed races like this one through to the end of the season in November.
But Ger Lyons is over from Ireland with a filly unbeaten on a man-made surface, Polytrack at Dundalk, Tapeta in Dubai. Three from three, Lily’s Angel has already won a Listed.
David O’Meara has been unlucky with the draw with his pair, Dutch Rose (first try at a mile) and Switcher (has had a run back), who has Radio Gaga breathing down her neck on Ascot form of last backend, if it could be believed. Also out in the Sunbury car-park in 13 is Burke’s Rock (Buick).
In any case Dutch Rose has it to do in the book with Stirring Ballad (also had a run back) if Goodwood form is repeated eight months on. My dutching will not be Rose but split stakes on Lily’s Angel and Stirring Ballad.
3.30 Doncaster Big-odds winners abound in this, 66-1, 40-1 and 33-1 in the last eight years. None over the age of five. Stalls 1-to-4 have landed four out of six, and the low numbers should get a pull today from Richard Fahey’s plan to bounce out Farlow (from 3) – ‘we need to be more positive with him’ – and he’s quite bullish about him ‘getting it together’, although 40.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
There’s no doubt Farlow is on a winning mark here, being 8lb and 10lb better off with the winner, Thunderball, in his last two races, both at Doncaster.
He’s drawn right next door to stablemate Johannes, who used to win first time every season and is in good form at home: 64.0.
Spinatrix (7) is also known to take them along; otherwise the high draw has the pace through Tax Free (19). We may again see that V-formation down the middle of Town Moor, as we did at the Lincoln meeting, but Tax Free’s draw suggests a split. Either way, you will need a bet on each side.
The obvious answer is Duke Of Firenze (from 15), front-paged as a Stoute herald for the season, but he’s needed a run in his first two campaigns.
King Of Jazz was favourite in the Thunderball race at the Lincoln meeting, when Shropshire was second and Farlow was behind. At 13.5, Jazz is value to recoup the losses from stall 14.
5.00 Kempton (Queen’s Prize) Hans Adielsson experiments with his four-time winner Buckland, up a total of 26lb as he’s climbed the grades, and today sent out over 2m for the first time.
We don’t need Kurt Wallander to detect that Buckland is up against it here: I was hoping he’d be favourite and therefore a sitting-duck for a lay, but he’s roosting on 6.0 as I write, which nearly dissipates the risk and makes him a punt!
However, his style of running suggests he would need to settle, with Woolfall Treasure likely to go haring off in front at a rate of knots.
Since Desert Recluse, Masterful Act, The Tiger and Topolski are also known pacesetters, we could be in for some hot early fractions in a very fast race. It’s the kind of line-up which produces a shock result.
That’s why I shall have a pound on Theology, whose Louth yard does really well with what it’s got, and who would have had these for breakfast as a Group performer a couple of years ago (beaten only eight lengths in the St Leger).
Theology was in fair form over hurdles in February, and Steve Gollings has booked William Buick, so he shouldn’t be 33.0.
Albert Bridge and Mubaraz are capable of winning and, of the pair, I much prefer Albert Bridge (6.2), the Cesarewitch seventh who was just pipped on his reappearance run last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win on each GLEN MOSS and SHAMAAL NIBRAS (2.05 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 7.6pts win (nap) GABRIAL (2.20 Doncaster)
BET 5.7pts win LILY’S ANGEL and 4.8pts win STIRRING BALLAD (3.15 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.6pts win KING OF JAZZ, and 0.75pts win and place FARLOW (3.30 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 5.7pts win ALBERT BRIDGE, and 0.9pts win and place THEOLOGY (5.00 Kempton)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, so you know the offers he took if you divide 20 by the stake. In jackpot bets, the stakes are raised to win 30 or more.
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