DAQMAN SIX HIT IS HEARTACHE FOR THE LAYERS: After a 12-1 winner and third consecutive super nap on Thursday, Daqman yesterday played up the winnings with a sensational SIX winners including the nap, Heartache (WON 6-4), among four out of four in his Daq Multiples trebles and accumulator:
WON 6-1 THE GRAPE ESCAPE (from 10.0 on BETDAQ
WON 9-4 PIVOINE (trebles and acca)
WON 2-1 DESERT SKYLINE (from 4.9 on BETDAQ)
WON 13-8 TIME TO STUDY (from 4.1 on BETDAQ, trebles and acca)
WON 6-4 HEARTACHE (nap, trebles and acca)
WON 8-11 ON TO VICTORY (trebles and acca)
239 POINTS PROFIT FROM 10 WINNING BETS: Time To Study and Desert Skyline in the Doncaster Cup took Daqman to a 74-16 lead over Pricewise, clear by 313 points. Daqman’s profit on the day yesterday from a total of 10 winning bets was 239 points.
DEFOE CAMP IN FINE FORM FOR LEGER
3.35 Doncaster (St Leger) See ABC Guide in Tuesday Archive
The rain reigns again! After a drying day and officially good-to-soft going yesterday, a shower this morning and another heavier one about 2 o’clock is forecast for Doncaster today for a final Classic in which the ground could have a big say.
Stradivarius and Count Octave, first and second in the Queen’s Vase on a fast surface, have no known form with cut in the ground. Douglas Macarthur’s two wins have both been on firm. Raheen House and Venice Beach have both scored two each on good.
SOFT GROUND: Capri had a sequence of four soft-ground successes last season and his Irish Derby win came on a slow surface though officially described as good. Crystal Ocean quickened well on soft ground at Goodwood for the Gordon Stakes, which is often a pointer to the Leger.
RATINGS: Capri was bound to get a high rating following his Irish Derby success – probably lucky to beat Cracksman that day – but, after his 120, there are no fewer than seven contenders between 113 and 116.
EXPERIENCE: Nine of the last 10 winners had previously raced between five and seven times only, so five of today’s field look exposed. Douglas Macarthur has had 10 races, Capri nine, Raheen House, The Anvil and Rekindling eight each.
IMPROVERS: Key to betting success at this time of year is to find the improvers. Crystal Ocean has powered from 89 in May to 114, Defoe from 88 to 113 in a similar period, Count Octave from 86 to 104, Stradivarius from 78 to 116.
FORM: Runners-up to Defoe in his four-race sequence have been Group 3 at best, though he won with panache, clearly stays, and quickens on soft.
It’s a worry for Crystal Ocean fans that all his key form is with the Group-2 horse Permean and with Khalidi, trained by John Gosden, who therefore has a benchmark for Stradivarius and Coronet.
STAMINA: Will Crystal Ocean get the trip? ‘His family is a bit delicate, and I’m wondering,’ says the trainer, who handled half-brother Hillstar. No worries for Capri but not since Nijinksy (1970) has a horse done the Irish Derby and English St Leger double. Coronet, Defoe and Stradivarius are certain stayers.
JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori, who has won the Leger five times, prefers the filly Coronet to Stradivarius, whose Goodwood Cup form got a boost yesterday when the third to finish, Desert Skyline, stormed home in the Doncaster Cup.
Dettori has been missing strike badly at Donny this week with seven straight rides finishing second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth. No winners. In fact, only one in the last fortnight among 14 in the frame without scoring.
TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien (Venice Beach) and John Gosden (Coronet and Stradivarius) have won the Leger four times each, but Ballydoyle is only 1-23 in the decade. Out of form: Joseph O’Brien (Rekindling), 1-26.
VERDICT: The Roger Varian stable flying, the jockey Andrea Atzeni (two out of the last three Legers) in dazzling form at Donny with three big winners this week, and a colt that stays, likes soft ground and is improving all the time. If you’re lost in a sea of speculation, it’s Defoe to the rescue at an each-way price: 7.6 on BETDAQ as I write. Crystal Ocean (6.4) the danger.
LOOK FOR MERLIN MAGIC ON FAR RAIL
1.50 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) All the week on the straight course, the stats have favoured high numbers but results on Town Moor have seen low numbers best, as when Music Box steamed up the far rail and pipped my bet, Eternally, who had raced down the stands’ side.
Last year’s winner off 95, Captain Colby is better off with the third, Harry Hurricane (placed two years running), but it’s a stronger race this time around, by a couple of pounds.
It’s 6-3 four-year-olds over five-year-olds in the decade, and horses of those age groups who have won on soft ground are: Under The Covers (drawn 3), Compas Scoobie (in 9), Stake Acclaim (10), Major Pusey (12) and Bossipop (13).
Under The Covers could well lead the far side, while Bossipop, Major Pusey and Compas Scoobie still have to prove themselves at this class-2 level. So I’m going to Stake Acclaim (11.5 on BETDAQ).
Those that worry me among the remainder are the improving Merlin (16 BETDAQ offers), who will be thereabouts under wee Georgie Wood on that far rail, and the consistent A Momentofmadness (also 16.0), who could be the one up the stands’ side if the low numbers finally run into churned-up ground.
2.25 Doncaster (Park Stakes) Is there a Limato (2013 winner of this) among these three-year-olds? On the ratings, it would have to be Spirit Of Valor, if you can forgive him his defeat by Breton Rock and Home Of The Brave in a messy race at Goodwood, which turned around the July Course form of the first two (Aclaim behind, also hampered).
Nathra just about beats the penalised Breton Rock on Newbury form but James Doyle will be anxious to restore Home Of The Brave’s dominance after leading everywhere but on the line at Goodwood, though worse than good to soft is an unknown for him, and Spirit Of Valor needs the ground to dry further.
It’s all very tricky for punters but Aclaim’s return to form, second in a Group-1 at Deauville last time out, could be the answer. It’s a tough day of sprint and Classic so why not go for this late-season improver to land the naps hat-trick.
He’s an autumn horse who will enjoy the ground and get a tow from Home Of The Brave and Spirit Of Valor, who like to be in cthe front rank.
3.00 Doncaster (Champagne Stakes) I warned you on Monday that Charlie Appleby intended to win this for a third time. He has chosen soft-ground-loving Mythical Magic from three strong contenders.
Guineas-touted Dream Today, brother to this year’s 2,000-placed Al Wukair, looks a formidable threat, after his defeat of the highly regarded Gabr.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
1.50 Doncaster: Bull’s-eye bets to win 50
BET 5pts win and place STAKE ACCLAIM
BET 3.3pts win and place MERLIN
BET 3.3pts win and place A MOMENTOFMADNESS
2.25 Doncaster
BET 12pts win (nap) ACLAIM
3.00 Doncaster
BET 11pts win MYTHICAL MAGIC
BET 3.3pts win (stakes saver) DREAM TODAY
3.35 Doncaster
BET 5.5pts win CRYSTAL OCEAN
BET 4.5pts win DEFOE
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