TOP-CAT DAQMAN’S FOUR WINS MAKE IT 317 POINTS IN A WEEK Daqman complained about the quality of racing on Thursday after five winning days in a row so his neck was on the line yesterday. His answer? FOUR winners include THREE IN A ROW at Cheltenham for a profit of 54.90 on the day, taking his total to 317 points from 14 winners in the six winning days out of seven. What a week!
🐱 WON 15-2 CAPTAIN TOM CAT
✔️ WON 5-1 ROUGE VIF
✔️ WON 7-2 MOLLS MEMORY
✔️ WON 2-1 GALVIN (Fortune Cookie)
50 TARGET OVER PRICEWISE? HE’S ALREADY ON 51: UP 594 POINTS Daqman had also declared his intention to reach 50 strikes against Pricewise this weekend but no sooner had he pledged it than he took their scores to 51-29 with two out of three in their head-to-heads yesterday, putting Daqman more than 594 points in front of his archrival to 10-point level stakes: +416.86 profit to -177.84 loss.
EX-O’BRIEN SIR DRAGONET TURNS HIM OVER IN COX PLATE UPSET: After Anthony Van Dyck’s win in last week’s Caulfield Cup, Chester Vase winner Sir Dragonet, formerly with Aidan O’Brien but sold to a stable in Victoria, beat O’Brien’s Armory in the $5million Ladbrokes Cox Plate at Moonee Valley early this morning.
Today’s other headlines:
🔹 WEMBLEY FINAL FORTUNE COOKIE
🔹 ANNA’S TOP AND THAT’S OFFICIAL
🔹 ORVAR THE VALUE AT BETDAQ 9.2
🔹 CLOTH CAP RATES BULL’S-EYE BET
WEMBLEY FINAL FORTUNE COOKIE
⚠️ HEADS UP Daqman’s first Fortune Cookie of the NH season yesterday, Galvin (WON 2-1), is followed today by one of the last on the Flat, Wembley in the Futurity at Doncaster. There are five hot two-year-old races:
⭕ 1.35 Saint-Cloud (Criterium International) Group 1 won by Aidan O’Brien with Roderic O’Connor (2010) and Johannes Vermeer (2015). Today he runs Van Gogh, second in the Champion Juvenile at Leopardstown, against Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten La Barrosa.
⭕ 1.45 Doncaster This Listed threw up Night Of Thunder, subsequent winner of the 2014 running of the 2,000 Guineas from Kingman. O’Brien runs Lipizzaner (Ryan Moore), fourth in the Norfolk Stakes and second in the Anglesey.
Just Frank made all to win a Sales race at Newmarket but is rated 7lb below Zamaani, who was giving 7lb to the winner when half-a-length second in the big-field Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar.
But at the offers (BETDAQ 6.0) it might be worth taking a chance with Helmont. The second, third and fourth have all won since he did a Houdini act to squeeze through and score at Haydock. The worry is that second run is always the real test.
⭕ 2.50 Saint-Cloud (Criterium de Saint-Cloud) The Aga Khan’s unbeaten colt Makaloun is taken on by the winner of the fillies Criterium on Arc day, Tiger Tanaka.
O’Brien has booked Pierre-Charles Boudot (198 winners this year) for Bolshoi Ballet, while David Menuisier saddles Belloccio.
⭕ 2.55 Doncaster (Futurity Trophy) This race used to throw up Derby winners – the last one, Camelot (2011) – but is on a Guineas four-timer after Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko.
Our Fortune Cookie – Wembley (Aidan O’Brien) – is generally around 12-1 for the Guineas and 20-1 for the Derby after running up to Thunder Moon in the National Stakes and St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst.
One Ruler (Charlie Appleby) could get a Saint-Cloud boost as a comfortable winner over Wembley’s stablemate Van Gogh at Newmarket. Holds Megallan on Newmarket form.
State Of Rest was close-up third in Chindit’s Champagne Stakes, despite losing his right-fore shoe during the race.
King Vega has twice finished second, coincidental to his stable’s missing strike badly yesterday with three seconds consecutively.
⭕ 3.35 Newbury (Horris Hill Stakes) This one once produced Persian Bold, Kris and Kalaglow in just four years. Not so strong these days but went to subsequent Sussex Stakes winner, Mohaather, in 2018.
Charles Hills has struck form with three winners (3-8) in four days, and bookmakers who opened 16-1 Mujbar were knocked over last night (10.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook early this morning).
Laneqash split two Group winners the last day and, on that form, deserves to be the 2.53 in BETDAQ Betting Exchange this morning but there is no guarantee he will act on the ground.
The Kingman colt Existent loves it. He was given plenty of time to strengthen up after finishing midfield in the Coventry and ran over them on the Rowley Mile three weeks back.
Note that these three are 1, 3 and 5 in the draw and seem likely to control the pace of the race. I took 6.8 Existent.
ANNA’S TOP AND THAT’S OFFICIAL
⭕ 2.05 Cheltenham Co Meath trainer John McConnell sent over a filly off only 10st 5lb to win this from the front in 2018, and tries for a repeat via Anna Bunina, with Richard Johnson booked. Heavily supported last night.
Anna’s bid for a hat-trick was foiled when aiming high at a Grade B and catching a hidden horse who has won just as easily on the Flat since.
Anna finished 10 lengths in front of the third, who has won either side of the race. The fourth horse home was Cerberus.
Cerberus was beaten three lengths by Allmankind in the Triumph Hurdle and nine by the same horse in the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle, after Allmankind had also beaten Botox Has in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham.
My handicap from all that the collateral form has Allmankind, Botox Has and Anna Bunina within a pound of each other at the weights they must carry under the conditions of this race!
Yet, if their official ratings are all converted to 12st, Anna Burina is well clear, partly thanks to the filly’s allowance. I took BETDAQ 4.5 this morning.
ORVAR THE VALUE AT BETDAQ 9.2
⭕ 2.20 Doncaster Wrenthorpe did us a big favour at Nottingham 10 days ago, and he put back-to-back wins together at this time last year, though has never scored off today’s career-high mark.
Mighty Spirit was runner-up in a big field at York the last day and Ishvara was second in deep ground at Leicester.
Of the two, Mighty Spirit is down in the handicap and likes the ground but Ishvara has bridesmaid form figures of 2202 which have cost a rise in the ratings to 12lb above her last winning mark.
Come From The Dark is a Haydock specialist. He has no other winning form than the three strikes there within course figures on the Lancashire track of 10121.
Orvar won twice at Doncaster last year and might bounce back with William Buick booked. He’s 4lb better off with Wrenthorpe despite beating him into third at Chester in August, so 9.2 on BETDAQ looked the value this morning.
CLOTH CAP RATES BULL’S-EYE BET
⭕ 3.50 Cheltenham Older horses don’t win this (0-10 over the age of nine) and it’s three years now since Cogry scored, though placed in this the last twice.
His trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, is on only a 13% strike rate and his last three favourites were all losers (missing strike with returns of 202).
The form of Colin Tizzard (West Approach) is worse still at 1-22: four losing favourites in the last fortnight (missing strike 3242).
Frodon is the Cheltenham horse, with form figures here in the last four years of 0110021114, but his burden of 11st 12lb doesn’t sit well with the stats: five of the last six winners carried 10st 11lb or less.
The forecast rain would ruin it for Cobra De Mai, a winner at 3m 2f on the course but pulled up behind both Cogry and Frodon. This one needs a late assessment just before the race: is it his day?
The rain would need to have been relentless all night to change the ground in favour of Captain Chaos. Bob Mahler’s a Spring horse.
Manofthemountain has built up a flat-track sequence at a lower level, and I prefer Cloth Cap and Sensulano, in the frame 13 times in 17 starts, and unexposed at today’s trip.
Jonjo O’Neill had a winner at Cheltenham yesterday and Cloth Cap is 3113 on good ground in the last two years. Can go well after a break (third in the Scottish Grand National first run in the Spring of 2019). Cloth Cap 8.0 and Sensulano 14.0 BETDAQ bull’s-eye -bets
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 2pts win HELMONT
2.05 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win ANNA BUNNINA
2.20 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ORVAR
2.55 Doncaster
FORTUNE COOKIE (Flat)
BET 20pts win WEMBLEY, nap
3.35 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win EXISTENT
3.50 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BETS
BET 7pts win CLOTH CAP
BET 3.75pts win SENSULANO
4.10 Newbury (win 20 at 8.7)
BET 2.5pts win LITIGATOR
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