DARING DAQMAN BAGS 11.5 WINNER: As ever, Daqman defied the so-called experts and picked an 11.5 offer in a race of just seven runners at Ascot yesterday. It won at 8-1, and he also added a 4-1 scorer at the track he calls his favourite:
WON 8-1 Alyssa (from 11.5)
WON 4-1 Life Less Ordinary
DAQMAN IN FRANCE: DAY ONE: Today, as well as Ascot in England, we have Day One of the Arc meeting at Chantilly, with Daqman challenging Pricewise in the 2.50 and 3.25 Chantilly, and in the 3.05 and 3.40 Ascot. The score stands at 74-32 in Daqman’s favour. Daqman’s bets for the day are divided between the French and the at-home bets (see below).
TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s verdict on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, plus the major back-ups races, like the big Abbaye sprint and the Lagardere two-year-old test for next year’s Classics.
MOONSHINER’S FIRST GLIMPSE OF GOLD
1.00 Chantilly (Prix Chaudenay) This is a test of future French Gold Cup (Prix Du Cadran), Grand Prix de Paris and Royal Oak winners. Vazirabad won it last year and is favourite for the Cadran at 3.25 pm today.
Hughie Morrison’s Marmelo was beaten at Deauville in a trial for this; Doha Dream has still to prove his stamina; but this Classic-trial performer (third in the Niel) is related to quality stayers on the dam’s side.
Moonshiner won the Prix de Lutece (15f) which was Vazirabad’s stepping-stone last season, and 3.95 offers on BETDAQ against the odds-on favourite were tempting.
1.35 Chantilly (Prix de Royallieu) The Juliet Rose, third to Left Hand in the Vermeille, swerves a rematch in the Arc de Triomphe to run here.
She has most to fear from Dermot Weld’s Ballyroan runner-up, Almela, who was impressive at Galway on the last day.
Though she’s four, giving weight to the second-season fillies, she’s likely still improving after only five races in her life; never been out of the first two. But her weight concession may be the deciding factor.
2.50 Chantilly (Prix Dollar) Just one success in 14 years for English raiders, after starting the century with back-to-back wins.
This usually goes to older horses (three-year-olds have had only two wins in the 16 seasons) but Zarak, second to Almanzor in the French Derby and again at Deauville (Heshem behind), misses the Arc for this Group-2 race.
Yorker has won two at Group-1 level in Turkey but was unable to score at York in a home Group 3.
Success for James Fanshawe’s Saint-cloud Listed winner Arthenus would be a boost for the Arc chances of New Bay who beat him in a Group 3 at Deauville.
I have to stick with Zarak, since I thought Almanzor should have run in the Arc. Let’s hope the form noose doesn’t tighten round my neck.
3.25 Chantilly (Prix Du Cadran, French Gold Cup) Here’s the champ, Vazirabad, winner of eight out of nine races, his only defeat when dropped back to 12f in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.
But Vazirabad has not scored beyond 2m, so it’s all to play for in Saturday’s marathon, with the weather fine except for a shower or two yesterday; the going is likely to be good.
Just one win in six seasons. But there’s a strong quest for more gold by a potential six-strong raid on Saturday’s French Gold Cup, Prix Du Cadran, from English yards.
Quest For More, who misses the Melbourne Cup this time around (ninth last year), landed the Lonsdale Cup at York in August, and stepped up to 2m 2f for the first time when narrowly nosed out of the Doncaster Cup after trying to make all.
With the Cadran trip all of 2m 4f, I would be aiming Quest For More at the 2m Champion Stayers at Ascot in two weeks’ time.
Burmese (Marcus Tregoning), fourth at Doncaster, was fifth in the Ascot Gold Cup (2m 4f on soft), and looks one paced.
Amour De Nuit (Sir Mark Prescott) has already tried a big step up from 2m to the near 2m 6f of the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot; he was nine-lengths sixth after failing to settle.
Cayirli (Seamus Durack) was second but hasn’t won since his debut maiden, always a bad sign. He’ll need everything to fall right for him.
Nearly Caught (Hughie Morrison) has to prove his stamina for this, after back-to-back wins at Deauville (15f). He had been third in the Northumberland Plate
It’s hard to oppose Vazirabad but 14.5 offer Mille Et Mille, the runaway winner last year, has his ground again. Like last year was unplaced in the Gladiateur, but was given a waiting ride that day.
When sent to the front – on soft ground he didn’t like – Mille Et Mille wasn’t beaten far by Order Of St George in the Ascot Gold Cup. Will a marathon on the first day be a pointer to the Arc?
ASCOT: 12.0 OUTBACK TRAVELS SO WELL
2.30 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) Only one older horse (over four) has won this. It’s four-year-olds 6, three-year-olds 3.
So, on the stats, the front three in the market have work to do but we all know how good is Sir Michael Stoute at improving horses like Arab Spring and King’s Fete.
He’s bought them both back to score recently at this Group-3 level, though both are giving weight to Group-2 winners Sumbal, Western Hymn and Move Up.
Sumbal is a soft/heavy performer and Move Up’s Pattern success came in Turkey, so I’m relying on Frankie Dettori to break Western Hymn’s bridesmaid sequence.
3.05 John Gosden will have Shalaa (five in a row in 2015) as near to perfection as he can but expects her to come forward in time for British Champions Day in two weeks’ time.
I can’t have Don’t Touch, who struggled to beat that right loser Danzeno in a Listed (though beat Strath Burn), and Windfast (holds Naadirr and Raucous) for in–form Brian Meehan is also around that level.
Mehronissa, too, was in front of Strath Burn when they met in the Group-1 Haydock Sprint after she beat front-runner Ridge Ranger at Pontefract.
Ridge Ranger (14.0 on BETDAQ) is now weighted for revenge on Mehronissa, though her running style leaves her vulnerable.
I can well imagine Outback Traveller (12.0 in the orange) bouncing back to his Wokingham-winning form after a holiday. He travelled well in that cavalry charge and that seems to be what will win the day here against a frontal assault and a ring-rusty champ.
3.40 Ascot (Challenge Cup) The first four home in this each year since the track was remodeled have all come from stalls 1 to 13. Nothing has even placed from the wide five gates.
But residing there, and settled in at the front of the market, is the grey Librisa Breeze (stall 16), second in the Royal Hunt Cup and penalized 8lb for going one better on the same course in the International before a good run at Group-3 level on the last day.
Squats, runner-up in that International, will struggle to turn around the form and his Willie Haggas stablemate Afjaan – improved nearly a stone in six weeks- could be the one under Ascot ace pilot, Frankie Dettori at 12.5 in the BETDAQ orange.
Both Squats and Firmament, should beat Dutch Law at the weights on the form of another big handicap here at Ascot last month.
Remarkable (9.2 offers) is not the easiest to ride or train but has had a holiday since he ran well in the Jersey Stakes. Like Shalaa, he is one of the Gosden late-season army.
ALICE ODDS CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER
1.45 Newmarket and 3.50 Redcar The Ballymacoll Stud, which is hoping to win the Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2.30 Ascot) with Arab Spring, has Sir Michael Stoute (pictured) launch one of their favourite unraced two-year-olds, Pivoine, superbly named by Redoute’s Choice out of Fleur De Cactus.
Sir Michael hit a lean spell last month but finished September with a flurry of form: 22131. He has the Ryan Moore ridden Pivoine and – at Redcar – Convey (Jim Crowley) as the pick of his eight runners today, according to my man in the long grass.
Offers of 4.4.and 5.6 respectively means we can tilt at the two of them, stop at a winner, with a small-stakes double, just in case they both come up.
4.00 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) This used to be a picnic for three-year-olds but they have been held 6-1 since 2010, mainly through a sustained raid by French fillies and mares which has landed five Sun Chariots out of the last eight.
Here they are again, with Ervedya, Siyoushake and Volta confronting the back-to-form Aidan O’Brien three-year-old Alice Springs.
She rarely puts two races together but, perhaps most significantly, she has been beaten by the French on two sorties to Deauville this year, a disappointing seventh in their 1,000 Guineas and remote when favourite for the Prix Rothschild.
Yet Volta, third to the Guineas winner in the French Oaks, and second in the Rothschild, was 5.6 in the BETDAQ orange this morning when Alice Springs was 2.52.
Alice in wonderland, says the Racing Post. I say: curiouser and curiouser!
REDCAR: TROPHY TIP IS FOLLOW THE RATINGS
3.15 Redcar (Two-Year-Old Trophy) The 2014 winner of this, Limato, was exceptional. Even so, to be successful in this you had to have a rating of at least 95, which knocks out many moderate horses in a low-level renewal today.
A high, high draw also makes it difficult if not impossible: stalls 10 to 17 cover five of the last seven winners; the two others came from gate 3.
Combining the stats recommends Medici Banchiere (rated 99) and Repton (103), followed in the ratings by the maiden Mazyoun (Jim Crowley but in stall 18) and Orewa.
Medici Banchiere did enough in the July Stakes and the Gimcrack (both Group 2) to recommend him here, dropped two grades. Repton is also down in class from two 7f runs in the Pattern and is back to 6f. I took 8.0 and 6.2 respectively on BETDAQ this morning.
Orewa beat a big field at The Curragh but, on collateral assessment, the second (Wick Powell) and seventh (Lady In Question) appear to demote the form to sub-Listed level, though it’s early days.
4.25 Redcar (Straight-Mile Series Final) In the last six runnings of this, winner or second have come from stalls 1 and 2 six times (four wins).
So drawn today are Redcar specialists Abushamah (two wins there but 19.5 on BETDAQ as I write) in the one stall and 5.9 offer Father Bertie (Redcar form 2113 including this race last year) in two.
DAQMAN IN FRANCE (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 6pts win MOONSHINER (1.00 Chantilly)
BET 8pts win THE JULIET ROSE (1.35 (Chantilly)
BET 9pts win (French nap) ZARAK (2.50 Chantilly)
BET 2pts win and place MILLE ET MILLE and 4pts stakes saver VAZIRABAD (3.35 Chantilly)
DAQMAN AT HOME (staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 5.5pts win PIVOINE (1.45 Newmarket; if lose, 6pts win CONVEY (3.50 Redcar), plus 1pt win double the two
BET 5pts win WESTERN HYMN (2.30 Ascot)
BET 2pts win and place OUTBACK TRAVELER (3.05 Ascot)
BET 2.5pts win REMARKABLE, and 1.75pts win and place AFJAAN (3.40 Ascot)
BET (English nap to win 30): 6.5pts win VOLTA (4.00 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win REPTON and 3pts win MEDICI BANCHIERE (3.15 Redcar)
BET 4pts win FATHER BERTIE and 1pt win and place ABUSHAMAH (4.25 Redcar)
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