DAQMAN HAS 60 VALUE STRIKES: After near misses at home with his nap second and his win-and-place ‘hidden horse’, Heritage House fourth at 100-1, Daqman landed two winners in three races at Santa Anita for a profit on the entire day of 16 points and the 60 up against Pricewise of the Racing Post.
WON 91-10 HARD TO JUSTIFY (Porta Fortuna 2nd 19-5 same race)
WON 6-4 UNQUESTIONABLE (BETDAQ 4.7 taken)
*Daqman (60) and Pricewise (34) both have bets in the 2.05, 3.15, 3.45 Ascot; 7.10, 8.30 and 11.25 Santa Anita turf races.
🇺🇸 BREEDERS CUP SENSATION: Drama at Santa Anita yesterday when River Tiber (Aidan O’Brien) and Givemethebeatboys (Jessica Harrington) for yesterday’s racing and Bolshoi Ballet (also O’Brien) for today were all three scratched by the course vets. Big Evs won the £433k juvenile sprint, the sensation of the day.
37.0 HIDDEN HORSE AT ASCOT
⭕ 2.05 Ascot (2m 1f chase) Winning favourites: nil. Winners over the age of seven: only two in the decade. Two pointers identify just two horses here: Saint Segal and Frere D’Armes.
The stats don’t always work out but it’s certainly a surprise to see so few younger horses here in a class-1 handicap. Maybe it’s because of the testing ground.
Boothill will like it, after a fine Grade-2 novice career, including victory on the soft in the Wayward Lad at Kempton last December.
He’s already won a CD handicap here; he’s placed six times out of seven over fences; and he’s won three times after a break.
Saint Segal and Frere D’Armes are both winners on the soft, and their trainers have each scored with lightweights in the last three seasons of this race.
BETDAQ value 5.8 Boothill, 6 Saint Segal
⭕ 3.15 Ascot (2m handicap hurdle) Young horses prevail here but not at four; bit too young. I fancy a .hidden horse..
Camprond was fourth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival last year and followed up with a win at the Punchestown festival.
In fact, five times a hurdle winner and six times in the minor places, including third in that Coral Cup this year.
Camprond has won after a break; loved deep ground when trained in France; and comes here from a red-hot stable: Philip Hobbs and his team currently have form of 1101421.
BETDAQ value 37 Camprond
⭕ 3.45 Ascot (Autumn Gold Cup, 3m chase): Monbeg Genius’ winning sequence was spoiled only by his third to the subsequent Grand National and Punchestown Gold Cup winners.
But I worry that he didn’t score first time back last season and Jonjo O’Neill has managed just one winner at odds on from 20 starters recently.
I’ll try a win-and-place Yeah Man (BETDAQ 9.3), whose Gavin Cromwell yard was in cracking form at Cheltenham with three winners last weekend.
WARM ORDER AGAINST INSPIRAL
🇺🇸 7.10 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Filly And Mare, Turf 1m 2f) When Chad Brown landed this race on this track in 2014, the winner’s stablemate, Stephanie’s Kitten, who finished second, went on to win the following year, allowed to start at 12-1.
Last year the same stable had In Italian finish second to Tuesday (Aidan OBrien), despite losing a lot of ground adjusting to her wide draw from gate 11.
In Italian now tries to duplicate the Kitten act from the one stall, taking on the O’Brien filly, Warm Heart, adjacent in gate 2.
With The Moonlight offers a line to collateral form, beaten three lengths by In Italian at Keeneland, two lengths by Fev Rover in the E P Taylor at Woodbine, all at level weights.
Warm Heart (pictured below) is five out of six this season, including the Ribblesdale and the Yorkshire Oaks on fast ground.
Frankie Dettori on Inspiral for British champion John Gosden won the Sun Chariot the last day on firm ground but that race, and all her other success since a juvenile, has come over a mile.
BETDAQ value 3.45 Warm Heart, 7.0 In Italian
TAKE MAWJ MAGIC IN THE MILE
🇺🇸 8.30 (Breeders Cup Mile, turf) The Godolphin ‘boys in blue’ could enjoy a one-two from different trainers with Mawj (Saeed Bin Suroor) and Master Of The Seas, stabled with Charlie Appleby who has won this race for the last two seasons.
Come-from-behind Master Of The Seas may not be inconvenienced by a wide stall (14), while Mawj, who made all over an extra furlong in the £245k Queen Elizabeth 11 Challenge Cup at Keeneland in mid-October, looks poised as favourite from gate 6.
Outsider Lucky Score and hat-trick-seeker Du Jour (Bob Baffert) are in the percentage stalls 5 and 8, which have placed all three times in the last three Breeders Cups run at Santa Anita.
Ryan Moore on Astronomer needs to get across from gate 9 for an early position; he led in a Grade 2 here a month back and was beaten a neck.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.75 Mawj
STEEL YOURSELF FOR FRANKIE
🇺🇸 9.50 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Turf, 1m 4f) The Epsom Derby one-two on firm ground, Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, face off for a third time.
They were first and fourth – same order – in the Irish Champion Stakes (1m 2f), a length apart, King Of Steel closing too late, Auguste Rodin ridden out.
The gaps between the 10-furlong brigade narrowed in the late summer, when Nashwa was beaten a length by Mostahdaf at York and half a length by Auguste Rodin in that Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.
Under Frankie Dettori, King Of Steel, who had won the 1m 4f Ascot Derby (King Edward VII Stakes) on firm, also dropped back to 10 furlongs when returning to form in the Champion Stakes at Ascot the last day.
Stir this mix and see what you get but not before you add the trickiest ingredient: Auguste Rodin failed completely when travelling from ireland for the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas (12th of 14) and the King George (10 of 10), favourite for both.
BETDAQ value King Of Steel (7.5 offers) looked a different animal when winning the Champion Stakes and he outstayed subsequent St Leger winner, Continuous, on firm at Royal Ascot. Lightly raced so should be able to take this job on.
CARAVEL CAN DO THE DOUBLE
🇺🇸 11.25 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, 5f) English raiders have won this only once in the decade and that was at Keeneland. In the absence of Bradsell, the Kings Stand winner, the dream is kept alive by a rare Epom hero these days.
We must pin our hopes on Live In The Dream, who beat British Champion sprinter Highfield Princess and Bradsell in the Nunthorpe.
But that opens the door for a second year to the mare Caravel (gate 3),to be saddled by another Louisville, Kentucky, trainer in Brad Cox.
A 12-time winner, she made all in this race last year at Keeneland, with Highfield Princess nearly two lengths back in fourth.
After her Nunthorpe, Live In The Dream took in the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland in October but was beaten more than three lengths, giving 4lb to the first three, including the winner, Arzak.
This was another big step forward for Arzak, who was seventh and last to Out Shot at Saratoga in July, but kicked clear of the same horse to win the Woodford.
BETDAQ value 3.6 Live In The Dream, 5.8 Caravel, 9.4 Arzak
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Ascot (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win BOOTHILL
BET 2.5pts win SAINT SEGAL
2.25 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win THYME HILL
3.15 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 1.4pts win and place CAMPROND
3.45 Ascot (win 20, Jumps nap)
BET 2.4pts win YEAH MAN
7.10 Santa Anita (win 15)
BET 6pts win WARM HEART
BET 2.5pts win IN ITALIAN
8.30 Santa Anita (win-20 Flat nap)
BET 7.25pts win MAWJ
9.50 Santa Anita (win 20)
BET 3pts win KING OF STEEL
11.25 Santa Anita (win 20, win 12)
BET 4pts win CARAVEL
BET 1.4pts win ARZAK
BET 2pts win (saver) LIVE IN THE DREAM
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