100% BIG-RACE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Cheltenham Trials Day. And the Great Yorkshire. The action comes thick and fast, yet there’s only one Pricewise bet for Daqman to attack (1.50 Cheltenham). Our man is spoilt for value in that race, since the BETDAQ list this morning totalled little more than 100%, creating a level-playing field for punters.
HOW DAQMAN STARTS THE WEEKEND: Today at Doncaster and Cheltenham and tomorrow on Champion Hurdle day at Leopardstown, Daqman will be putting his bets on the line:
Bull’s-Eye Bets profit 48.50
Lays results 1111111111
Bankers results 11111
Bankers profit 77.81
Challenge: Daqman 13, Pricewise 8
SMAD VALUE! PLACE YOUR BETDAQ BET
12.40 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) Alan King farms this. Form figures since 2007 are 11110, including subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit, runner-ups Franchoek and Walkon, and third Grumeti.
The King runner today, Karezak, has something to find, which first-time blinkers did not on the last day. Ibis Du Rheu is said to need the run, and likely to be the one to take out of the race.
But this looks like a Henderson benefit. Peace And Co was impressive at this level at Doncaster, while supposed second-string Bivoiuac increased his advantage over Storm Force Ten in two December races.
We saw again yesterday victory for a second-string outsider (Champagne Rian won 20-1) over a stablemate favourite (Red Devil Lads 9-4, pulled up), so I’ll have my pound on Bivouac at 11.0.
1.15 Cheltenham A cracking contest. The exuberant Garrahalish (9.0 win and place on BETDAQ) won well at Towcester – so already a hill-climber – but equally important was the way he settled when ‘the ‘moral’, dropped back in trip at Ascot. He finished late for second, giving weight all round.
Carole’s Destrier, Perfect Candidate and Stellar Notion have all front-run, so there should be some pace on. Generous Ransom is handicapped to turn the tables on Stellar Notion but will his jumping hold up.
1.50 Cheltenham The Giant Bolster won this lormer Argento Chase last year on the way to his Gold Cup thurd, and the race had a Gold Cup runner-up (Exotic Dancer) in 2007.
In fact, the enigmatic ‘Bolster’ has been in the frame three times for the gold, yet you can’t be sure what kind of race he will run, though he is never to be discounted at Cheltenham.
Dynaste is another Cheltenham horse (form figures there 220121), winner of the Ryanair last March. He redeemed his 2013 flop in the King George by running up to Silviniaco Conti in December’s renewal, though he was armed to the teeth (literally) with aids; yes, including a tongue-tie.
Black Thunder, still unexposed after eight chases, improved in a tongue-tie to run second in the United House Gold Cup before taking in an ‘easy’ at Sandown, sidestepping the Hennessy.
But winner of the Hennessy, with an even bigger climb up the ratings (17lb), Many Clouds looks the one most likely to, as far as March gold is concerned.
On paper he appears to have improved past Black Thunder, who beat him at Haydock as a novice. The handicapper says Many Clouds is 6lb better, though his 10lb rise after the Hennessy looks harsh.
It’s level weights today, of course, with the exception of Smad Place, needing the race and well behind in the Hennessy after making mistakes but 12lb better off with the winner today.
Twice third in the World Hurdle, and second in the RSA after only three chases, Smad Place was pressing Dynaste for favourite in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
It’s a fascinating race. The betting, too, is exciting, with the orange adding up to only fractionally over 100%, paying out as much as is bet in a punter-friendly market.
VERDICT: It’s plenty soft enough to see Dynaste at his best, and it’s guesswork how The Giant Bolster will perform. Black Thunder seems on the upgrade again but was easy to back this morning, and the Hennessy holds the key, with Smad Place better than his finishing position (tired and made errors first run back that day) and suited by the conditions.
2.25 Cheltenham Easter Day runs here instead of in the Great Yorkshire, getting the ground he needs for certain, whereas Donny should be drying out in the forecast sunshine.
Only one winner in the decade carried more than 11st 3lb but this is a shorter handicap, 8lb covering four-fifths of the field, and Easter Day should now pick up the thread of his defeat of the RSA Chase winner 16 months or so ago.
Annacotty was only eighth in that RSA and Little Jon is a struggling novice. Yet these are the two market rivals to Easter Day, which makes him a nap.
3.00 Cheltenham This is a hot one, if past results are any guide. At Fishers Cross (2013), Bobs Worth (2011) and Wichita Lineman (2007) all went on from victory here to win at the festival.
Value At Risk annihilated his field at Newbury and the runner-up has won since, albeit in a low grade. Vago Collonges got his act together in a hood last time and the new tongue-tie could bring about further improvement: I took 8.0 win and place with the Value saver to cover my Risk on the win part of the part.
MILAN CAN SCORE IN GREAT YORKSHIRE
2.05 Doncaster Ruby Walsh – on his only ride of the day – renews his partnership with Analifet (2-2 last season), who hadn’t made her effort when falling at Leopardstown on the last day and would have finished in front of Princess Leya, who is second favourite here. That makes Analifet a good bet at around 3.8 on BETDAQ.
3.15 Doncaster (Great Yorkshire Chase) As ever in Fleet Street (I should know, I was racing editor there for 16 years), they couldn’t get the advertising changed when Easter Day was withdrawn last night, so no morning prices.
Only the advertising department thinks that the end of the day on newspapers is half-past five, and not a single editor will stand up to them. Bookies’ early fixed odds are not there for your benefit, but purely for advertising purposes, so the snake eats its tail.
My ABC Guide (Wednesday in the Archive) had this race between three, with Doncaster specialist Night In Milan better off at the weights with Grandads Horse, who beat him a head over course and distance in December. Drying ground is in Milan’s favour.
The doubt about If In Doubt is whether just two beginners’ chases are enough for the leap forward into this much stronger company, though he was a Listed-level hurdler (2nd in last year’s Lanzarote).
Royal Player is also inexperienced over fences but, if you fancy stablemate If In Doubt, you’ll need a saver on this one.
Scottish Grand National winner (2013) and second (2014) Godsmejudge bids to enter the record books as the first to win this race on his seasonal return.
He, too, has a stablemate, Medermit, in the race, back to form at Aintree but running in his first handicap since 2011.
VERDICT: This has always been Night Of Milan’s target. The sunny day is in his favour and, though he’s higher in the weights than when he failed in this last year, his CD second to Grandad’s Horse suggests that he’s still progressive. A fair each-way bet at 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
The Hobbs pair, If In Doubt and Royal Player, are inexperienced by the stable is having a fine season, starting so well, they topped the trainers’ table for a while.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 3pts win BIVOUAC and 6pts win (stakes saver) PEACE AND CO (12.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3.75pts win and place GARRAHALISH (1.15 Cheltenham)
BET 8.5pts win SMAD PLACE (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win ANALIFET (2.05 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win (nap) EASTER DAY (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET 4.2pts win and place VAGO COLLONGES with 2.75pts (win-stakes saver) VALUE AT RISK (3.00 Cheltenham)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 5pts win and place NIGHT IN MILAN (3.15 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pts win trebles and 1pt acca ANALIFET (2.05 Doncaster), EASTER DAY (2.25 Cheltenham), PEACE AND CO (12.40 Cheltenham) and VALUE AT RISK (3.00 Cheltenham)
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