ECLIPSE: RELY ON THE RACE OF THE DECADE: ‘The most pivotal race you’ll see in many a year, one of the best this century; franked by superlative efforts from the beaten horses’. What race is that? What is its relevance to today’s Eclipse Stakes at Sandown?
DON’T FORGET YOUR BETDAQ OPTIONS: Daqman’s win-50 Bull’s-Eye Bet did the business in the market yesterday if not on the track (9-2 from a huge early-mouse 11.5 on BETDAQ), so an easy trade. Says Daqman to TV fans: don’t get distracted; keep your eye on the ball or your early positions might be expensive.
* BULL’S-EYE BET’S 182 POINTS: Currently 182 points in profit with five wins from eight races, the Bull’s Eye Bets (to win 50 points) are in the 2.40 Sandown, one of them at 12.5.
* DAQMAN 47, PRICEWISE 16: Daqman leads Pricewise 47 returns to 16 on the Flat. They have head-to-heads today in the 2.40 and 3.50 Sandown, and the 2.55 and 3.30 Haydock.
BRAZOS’ 12.5 ON BETDAQ IS ALL WRONG
2.05 Sandown The ground conditions ruined my selections yesterday: I am not talking about whether it’s firm or soft, but that punters are ignored and we are not told the true facts.
What happened to the pogo-stick measuring device? Why can’t Stewards tell us every hour, and between races, what the stick yields? And can the results then show a return for the ground as it really was.
All yesterday’s times at Sandown were slow so in no way can we be talking about the kind of fast ground which put me off backing the 8-1 winner Milly’s Gift (see Daqman Archive).
‘Milly’ was drawn low in a sprint (no winners higher than gate 7) and, in this opener today, seven of the last eight winners have come form stalls 1, 2 and 3.
One Chance was held by Wind Fire and Hay Chewed, despite a low draw over CD recently when Wind Fire was in a wide stall but managed to cross over in a clever ride by Jamie Spencer (credit where it’s due).
Oisin Murphy takes over now from another ‘bad’ draw, with the form boosted since by a Listed win for Hay Chewed at Ayr.
But One Chance and Hay Chewed were both hammered by Shamshon in May: Frankie Dettori’s mount has stall 2 (and is 9.8 on BETDAQ as I write).
Extortionist is in the mix on his Group-3 place at The Curragh; Steps, too, if it rains. Oh, this weather!
2.40 Sandown Three-year-olds have done well in the opener but won this one only once in the decade; Ifwecan will probably set the pace, and I’m worried about the trip for Lyn Valley.
Velox has a featherweight and his Epsom race has been a good guide to this; claimer, Cam Hardie, takes his weight down to the three-year-olds level. This boy is magic, with 30 in the first four from 39 rides in the last two weeks.
Russian Realm could go well but was a failure at Royal Ascot and I’m attracted to Baltic Knight, Brazos, Gabrial’s Kaka and Snowboarder, because all been tried in the Pattern.
The ‘wrong price’ at 12.5 in the BETDAQ` orange early mouse was Brazos, hampered and unlucky not to be placed in the Group-3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
When Brazos won at Ascot in May, the grey was giving 13lb to Listed placed Wee Jean (runs in the 3.15 today) who then beat twice Listed placed Penny Drops.
2.55 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks) Luca Cumani, who trains Velox, is due for a winning run. This is one of his favourite races, his latest success starting at 20-1.
His Silk Sari was the stable second-string on this course in May but ran well, beaten less than a length by Sultanina, with the first nine in the race Listed winners or better.
This is a stunning Oaks on form, featuring last year’s Epsom Oaks winner, Talent, and the Fillies’ and Mares’ Champion from Ascot last October, Seal Of Approval.
What makes it harder is that those I have mentioned so far have all won on soft ground, and the ratings say there is only about 5lb between four in the race, bringing in two I haven’t even mentioned, both unbeaten!
The answer, of course, is to take an early-position BETDAQ value. I believe the improver is Silk Sari (11.5, as I write) and, while you can trade later on offers I’m looking at now (in a 107% orange), I cannot see the time-of-the race market, so I’ll charge to the account a ‘save’ on Seal Of Approval.
3.15 Sandown A bunch of nearly horses (fillies actually, looking for black type), including Royal Ascot runner-up Queen Catrine, could be confounded by Belle D’Or, half-sister to a 1,000 Guineas winner and from a yard with 2,000 and Oaks winners in adjacent boxes at home.
3.30 Haydock (Old Newton Cup) There’s another Cumani here, in a race he won three times between 2004 and 2008, all with horses of Havana Cooker’s age. His edge here is stamina.
Rain has frightened away some of the opposition and it should also favour the lower echelons of the handicap, but the wetter the better for Blue Surf, Dashing Star Magic Hurricane, Pallasator and Quiz Mistress, all winners on soft-heavy.
Quiz Mistress looks the one as a starter at 8.4, since our position could change dramatically after the Lancashire Oaks. Quiz Mistress was fourth in that race won by Sultanina with Silk Sari third. Good runs from them could see the price we hold cut in half.
3.50 Sandown (Eclipse Stakes) If Kingston Hill takes his chance today, so do I. Never has a race been so pivotal for many a year than the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. The beaten horses that have franked the form with superlatives.
Though Night Of Thunder won, the performances of the runner-up, Kingman (won Irish 2,000 and reversed Newmarket form at Royal Ascot) and third, Australia (won two Derbys) make this one of the best, if not the best, Classic this century.
Kingston Hill, only eighth, but with the French Derby winner behind him, might have gone very close to stopping Australia at The Curragh but was feeling the sting in the ground.
If Australia were running in this today, he’d be around even money but I could get 5.8 Kingston Hill, because of doubts about the ground. And because of The Fugue.
But, as I said in my ABC guide, despite all the plaudits for her Royal Ascot win in record time, the handicapper insists that The Fugue improved only a pound to do that job.
In fact, despite 10 races and three Group-1 successes since, The Fugue is only 7lb higher than the mark which resulted from her winning the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in August, 2012. And she was last of seven last year in this Eclipse, a race rarely won by a mare.
The riposte could be: yes, but rarely won by a three-year-old these days. As I’ve said, I believe the 2,000 Guineas, and subsequent proof of the current crops’ continued improvement, makes that race exceptional and all (nearly all) who raced in her.
Enigmas of the Eclipse are Verrazano, the Queen Anne runner-up, and True Story, only a talking horse so far but who may come alive in a visor.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, but Bull’s-Eye bet to win 50)
BET 3.4pts win SHAMSHON (2.05 Sandown)
BULL’S EYE BETS (each staked to win 50 points) 10pts win VELOX and 4.3pts win BRAZOS (2.40 Sandown)
BET 2.8pts win SILK SARI and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) SEAL OF APPROVAL (2.55 Haydock
BET 7.5pts win BELLE’D’OR (3.15 Sandown)
BET 8pts win HAVANA COOLER and 4pts win QUIZ MISTRESS (3.30 Haydock)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) KINGSTON HILL (3.50 Sandown)
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