NAP START THEN DAQMAN’S WORD IS HIS BOND AS RED MAKES ALL: Daqman stepped up his stakes yesterday and made 35 points profit on the day with two winners from three bets, including his Lingfield nap at 9-4. Red Bond made all at Newcastle as Daqman said he would, though he didn’t anticipate his being eight lengths clear at the line.
WON 9-2 RED BOND
WON 9-4 EL GHAZWANI (nap)
DAQMAN ACCOUNTS UPDATE NH: November 10 to January 31
📈 Daqman 28, Pricewise 13 (+311.40 to -81.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 37% (+203.40 from 10-27) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: 0% (-12.00 from 0-1) (2019: 47% +249 from 8-17)
📈 All Daily Naps 43% (+10.34 from 34-78) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 52% (+40.69 from 11-21) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 50% (-08.58 from 1-2) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye naps accounted on an annual basis; all others seasonal
DAQMAN LAUNCHES DUBLIN FESTIVAL WITH NAPS ON TWO CARDS: A fabulous opening day at the Dublin Festival (with an Irish nap), a mock-Cheltenham card at Musselburgh (Scottish nap; English trainer), two tough handicaps at Sandown and the Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield. You’ll find them all in Daqman’s bets or his Fortune Cookies Saturday list. Headlines:
🔹 LEE LOOKS IMPROVING OUTSIDER
🔹 SEE YOU LATER FOR A PLUS TARD
🔹 THE FORM IS IN THE NOTEBOOK..
🔹 THIS DUEL IS AN ABSOLUTE MARE
🔹 THOSE WERE THE DAYS MY FRIEND
🔹 BRAVE NEW WORLD FOR MIRANDA
🔹 HAT-TRICK BY CHARM OFFENSIVE
🔹 BEN, BEWARE THE SHARK ATTACK!
LEE LOOKS IMPROVING OUTSIDER
12.50 Leopardstown (2m 6f novice hurdle, Grade 1) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive.
Favourites do well in this and though, at seven, Latest Exhibition is a bit old (8-10 in the decade to five and six year olds), he’s had only five races under Rules, never out of the first two.
By Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare, ‘he’ll stay all day’, according to Wexford trainer Paul Nolan, best known for Joncol and Noble Prince.
Latest Exhibition’s sire is the dam’s sire of Fury Road, who completed a hat-trick, stepped up to 2m 7f at Limerick on the last day, a Grade 2 hike after winning 10 lengths in a Grade 3.
Given a higher rating than both Latest Exhibition and Fury Road is Willie Mullins’ 4.2 BETDAQ offer Elixir d’Ainay, beaten easily on the last day but with big-field Navan winner Longhouse Poet in third.
And the easy winner that day? The Royal Bond star, Envoi Allen, who skips this Dublin festival and goes straight for the Ballymore at Cheltenham.
Collateral form in two races at Navan in the autumn suggests that Cobblers Way has a lot to find; Assemble even more so.
But the baby of the race, Home By The Lee has not been hurried and ‘could be anything’. He was given a boost when his Fairyhouse maiden runnner-up, Alone, scored easily at Gowran.
I’ll take Elixir d’Ainay to boost Ballymore player, Envoi Allen, but it’s tight at the front of the market. Best outsider: Home By The Lee (22.0).
SEE YOU LATER FOR A PLUS TARD
1.25 Leopardstown (Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, 2m 1f, Grade 1) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive.
Both runnings of this have been won by Min, whose Punchestown victory in December was ‘unbelievable’ (quote unquote trainer Willie Mullins) after three bad mistakes.
But the hat-trick depends on below-par performances by either, or both, of A Plus Tard and Min’s stablemate Chacun Pour Soi, winner and second at Leopardstown over Christmas but with A Plus Tard drawing away under pressure.
Cilaos Emery is on the upgrade latish in life but A Plus Tard has that ‘improver’ look, aged only six, as arch-rival to Chacun Pour Soi Invincible on his day (beat Defi Du Seuil in the Punchestown Ryanair) but Chacun comes with a health warning. He’s had only four chases, with big breaks in between, running just three times since coming over from France three years ago. Chacon a son gout, but not my idea of a solid selection.
THE FORM IS IN THE NOTEBOOK..
2.00 Leopardstown (Arkle Novice Chase, 2m 1f, Grade 1) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive.
Willie Mullins would be five in a row in this if his horses hadn’t fallen in the lead at the last in 2017 and 2019. ‘That’s Jumps racing!’
Don’t you just hate wise guys who say that; they’re on a par with the woman to whom I complained about the winter, as I froze to the rail at Wincanton the other day. ‘It’s the same every year,’ she said, not realising that she had come very close to being buried in the final ditch!
Thanks to Willie running four out of the seven starters I can get a price about Notebook here, unable to show myself at Closutton ever again by backing two of Henry De Bromheads’ in a row, following A Plus Tard.
This is no country for old men – Melon and Cash Back have had their day – and Fakir D’Oudairies had his winning run cut short here at Leopardstown over Christmas. Notebook beat Fakir after Fakir beat Melon (Navan, November).
‘It’s never as easy as that’ (there’s another one of those platitudes) but Notebook still has improvement in him at age seven and this could be the middle leg of a sensational treble for Rachael Blackmore, if she has opened with A Plus Tard and goes on to take the Champion Hurdle with Honeysuckle.
2.35 Leopardstown (2m 1f Grade B chase) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive.
This seems to be a pinstickers’ race but is it pure luck that Paul Nolan has had the winner twice in four seasons at 14-1 and 16-1?
If he remembers how he produced Quamino (BETDAQ 16.5 early mouse) to score off 132 last year, maybe he can work the oracle again because, in a better race, Quamino’s rating is up to 136 but his weight is down 2lb on a year ago.
THIS DUEL IS AN ABSOLUTE MARE
3.10 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Hurdle 2m) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive. See also ‘A Cheltenham Taste Of Honey’ (Wednesday)
Favourites win this but that little man with the platitudes has grown bolder. He’s telling me: ‘You cannot be serious. Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore to beat Willie Mullins with three straight Grade-1 wins of Ladbrokes Chase, Arkle and Champion Hurdle?’
Will Honeysuckle become the fourth mare to win the Irish Champion Hurdle? Is she as good as Dawn Run or Apple’s Jade? Or even Like-A-Butterfly? In fact, she is only 4lb behind and a year in hand of Apple’s Jade when that one won last year’s race.
But she has to win on her Leopardstown debut, dropped back to 2m for the first time since she set out on her career of six wins without defeat.
She fits the bill for what is required when the mantle is vacant: a young improver. I once asked a stalwart punter the best way to pick winners. He said: Hindsight seen in advance (come again?)
In other words, can you imagine looking back on Petit Mouchoir or Supersundae winning this at the ages of 9 and 10? That usually happens only when the winner is on a sequence of championships already.
Both are previous winners and only Brave Inca bounced back and he did that in an unexceptional year.
Sharjah has beaten both Petit Mouchoir (over the Leopardstown CD on the last day) and Supasundae (in the same race the year before), a race previously won by Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly et al in the annals of Irish champion hurdlers.
So do we go on potential (Honeysuckle) or established form (Sharjah). At this trip on this course, it must be Sharjah.. but such a duel is a nightmare for punters.
THOSE WERE THE DAYS MY FRIEND
3.45 Leopardstown (Ladbrokes Hurdle 2m) See past records and stats preview in Tuesday’s Daqman Archive.
Charles Byrnes, who plotted back-to-back wins in this, goes for the hat-trick with the ominously-named Thosedaysaregone, who was one of the movers and shakers with bookies last night (in from 25-1 to 16-1).
There was also money for Unexcepted and Buildmeupbuttercup at the front of the market. Those two are the right age and from the right place in the weights, according to the stats.
But here’s one that could contract during the day. Take an early position about 10.0 BETDAQ offer Tiger Tap Tap, whose defeat of Home By The Lee at Naas could look hot after the opening novice hurdle.
Similarly, Thatsy offers would quickly get eaten up by many a hungry mouse if his Galway conqueror, Latest Exhibition, won that opener instead. The rule is: keep your Daq up, and become a mouse-mover and shaker yourself by being bang up to date with the markets.
The Mousedoctor looks long-term prepped for this by master of the art of plotting up a handicap winner, Tony Martin. I took 16.0 BETDAQ offers.
BRAVE NEW WORLD FOR MIRANDA
2.05 Musselburgh (Scottish County Hurdle) This right-handed flat track is ideal for Miranda (3-4 still standing). She came back into training late in the autumn, returning to form at the Christmas meeting at Kempton, and was a Spring mare last year.
She is worth following now after the winning start to her new world of handicapping.
2.40 Musselburgh (Scottish Champion Chase) Miranda’s trainer, Paul Nicholls, goes for a hat-trick in this race with Greaneteen, who is still in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He is bred for further but his freegoing style is better suited to 2m and a flat track and, though he won on heavy at Ascot, he’s landed back-to-back wins on good to soft and is another Spring horse for Ditcheat.
It may help the Greaneteen cause that Locker Room Talk is a front-runner. He also helps make a price for the favourite.
HAT-TRICK BY CHARM OFFENSIVE
3.15 Musselburgh (Edinburgh National) Paul Nicholls goes for a Saturday hat-trick here with Wonderful Charm, having finally given up hope of the Grand National (form figures P00) with this 12-year-old.
Sam Waley-Cohen (3lb) helps to reduce an unfair 9lb penalty for winning a nothing hunter-chase on the last day. It’s nearly two years since he warranted such a rating (pulled up Cheltenham Festival).
There’s talk of the Cheltenham Foxhunter but I’d rather see this flat-track winner (here at Musselburgh) in the Foxhunters at Aintree. He was 7.0 on BETDAQ for today’s race, early mouse.
They’ve backed Chic Name in first-time cheekpieces, but he’s another who has been racing in a different discipline: cross-country at Cheltenham seems far removed from railing round the Musselburgh oval.
Bob Mahler might enjoy this marathon trip but trainer Warren Greatrex is missing strike badly. No winner for a month and recent form figures of 3203223.
A 15.0 BETDAQ bet early on, Brian Boranha has been given a chance by the handicapper, 9-10lb better off now with the North Yorkshire Grand National one-two, Little Bruce and Sumkindofking, whom he might have beaten but for falling at the last. The champion elect, Brian Hughes, rides.
BEN, BEWARE THE SHARK ATTACK!
3.00 Sandown The Musselburgh raiders are among 14 Paul Nicholls runners today, with Harry Cobden on six here at the Esher track, where the heavy ground and 3m should suit Dan McGrue, though perhaps worryingly big at 19.5 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
Remastered has had a wind op since beaten a neck, trying to give 9lb to Potters Corner. Similarly, Ask Ben (BETDAQ 7.0) just failed to reach Goodbye Dancer (3m) at Cheltenham, giving the winner 12lb, and I hope to see him better placed when he gets to the bottom of the hill today.
I can’t risk Ask Dillon and Bold Plan while their jumping is so iffy but Big Shark (11.0 offers taken) is still unexposed. Go Whatever was a long way behind him in the autumn but has stepped up in grade and won twice since on winter ground.
Golan Fortune has had his problems since second in this in 2018; back to form last time but that was 77 days ago and the spacing of his races suggests he is still fragile.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 6.25pts win ELIXIR D’AINAY
BET 1pt win and place HOME BY THE LEE
1.25 Leopardst own (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win A PLUS TARD
2.00 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 8.75pts win (Irish nap) NOTEBOOK
2.05 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 6pts win (English nap) MIRANDA
2.35 Leopardstown (win 20, win 10 place)
BET 1.25pts win and 3pts place QUAMINO
2.40 Musselburgh (win 10)
BET 5pts win GREANETEEN
2.55 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win COURT HOUSE
3.00 Sandown (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win ASK BEN
BET 2pts win BIG SHARK
3.10 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 11pts win SHARJAH
3.15 Musselburgh (win 30, win 20)
BET 2pts win and place BRIAN BORANHA
BET 3.5pts win WONDERFUL CHARM
3.45 Leopardstown (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, win 10 place)
BET 5.5pts win TIGER TAP TAP
BET 3.25pts win and place THE MOUSE DOCTOR
FORTUNE COOKIES
NOTEBOOK 2.00 Leopardstown
GO WHATEVER 3.00 Sandown
HONEYSUCKLE 3.10 Leopardstown
CRIEVEHILL 3.35 Sandown
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