14-1 AND 12-1 BIG-RACE WINNERS ALREADY: Big-race king Daqman starts February with 11.5, 8.2 and 7.0 shots today after January brought him the 14-1 Somerset National winner, the 12-1 Thyestes scorer and the 4-1 North Yorkshire National hero.
CHECK OUT THE UPDATE OF DAQMAN’S RECORDS: It’s all recorded in the Daqman Library (just a touch on the green Daqman icon), with his tipping headlines as they happen, plus a check on his results in the rivalry with Pricewise.
DAQMAN 7-2 UP OVER PRICEWISE IN 2014: He beat Pricewise 7-2 in January and is 18-6 in front overall, since challenging the trade-paper tipster on November 23. Here are recent Daqman winners from the head-to-head:
WON 9-2 CASTILO DEL DIABLO (8.6 on BETDAQ)
WON 6-1 SAPHIR DU RHEU
WON 6-1 IRISH SAINT (10.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN (win and place 15.5 BETDAQ)
1.50 Sandown Every pound on their backs will count double in the mud today, and four of the last five winners have come from the two bottomweights in this handicap, one of them Eastlake.
He’s up 23lb but is claimed off to the tune of 10lb and has been progressive since last year. Where’s A P McCoy, who will no doubt ride him at Cheltenham, weight or no weight?
Answer: Wetherby, where I’d rather back two of his – Flemenson and Shutthefrontdoor – than get involved in this tricky one at Sandown.
1.35 and 3.20 Wetherby No penalty has been carried successfully in the three runnings of the novices’ hurdle (1.35) but those on 10st 12lb look a moderate lot today.
And Flemenson’s step up in trip should see him home, as a son of Flemensfirth out of a Strong Gale mare. Sir Mangan dominated a field at Sedgefield but won in a slow time. I don’t think we’ll see such Mangan ease here.
McCoy can double up with Shutthefrontdoor, not disgraced tackling the undulations and tough fences of Cheltenham on good ground and a soft-ground lover during his hurdles career.
2.05 Ffos Las (Welsh Champion Hurdle) Whisper was once reckoned a Champion Hurdle horse by Team Henderson but he’s proved slower than that on the track, needing a longer distance and heavy ground.
He has both today, gets 21lb with which to turn over Sandown December form on good to soft with Saphir Du Rheu, and is also better off with the runner-up, Home Run.
2.25 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase) Only one winner in 30 years has been over the age of seven, but Oscar Whiskey will be odds on to mess up the stats at the expense of the improver, Benvolio.
The old cynical adage ‘back the outsider of three’ would need Manriverstocross to do better than just getting in this run to help him qualify for handicaps at Cheltenham.
2.40 ffos Las (West Wales National) This brought the house down last year, with the game victory of Carruthers. If courage wins today, it would be Mountainous, who showed massive determination to land the Welsh Grand National but drawing from the depths of a horse can leave its mark.
One of my 13 to follow, De La Bech also showed courage at Chepstow, albeit a lesser race earlier in December but he’s a seven-year-old on the upgrade (forget his dislike of Cheltenham last time) who preferred deep ground when he was hurdling.
A measure of the quality of this race is revealed by Smoking Aces. Racing off 122, he had to carry 11st 5lb in a class 3 last time but has only 10st 1lb here, stepped up a grade.
Since Jonjo wants him in the Aintree Grand National line-up, he needs to earn a couple of penalties quick to get anywhere near making the cut. He also needs to improve his jumping.
Alfie Spinner, who seems to have been around forever, has good form at long trips, but has yet to win off 3m and keeps edging up the weights, a pound at a time.
Emperor’s Choice wins at this time of year, with all his success in January (1 win), February (2), March (1) and April (1). Has his ground today. Trainer Venetia Williams is having a great run of form.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: De La Bech gets 16lb from Mountainous here, and I took 8.2 from BETDAQ layers this morning. Emperor’s Choice (7.0) looks laid out for the race and, with the Betdaq list of offers adding up to only 107%, I could back a second runner.
2.55 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap) Emerald Wilderness won this from stall 7 last year and has had the luck of the draw again in 9 from a 5lb lower mark.
He’ll be as big a price as last year (12-1) because he’s done little or nothing in between, and he’s 10 years old now (as is Mia’s Boy), but those around him in the top half of the draw have their flaws, too.
Apostle is seemingly a 7f horse. Snow King finished last on his two starts in 2013. Rebellious Guest, though back to form, hasn’t won at this level since August, 2011. Verse Of Love is a once-a-year horse and his wins are at 7f, excepting Chester, which is even tighter than Lingfield.
Shamdarley goes to post without a run for 175 days and with Marco Botti’s star suddenly slipped over the horizon. Ditto Odyssee. Botti is getting nothing (0%) from his horses, according to the trade paper.
True To Form beat Emerald Wilderness over 1m 2f here. That was the last time he won a race (December, 2012) and he’s got the ‘coffin box’ stall 1, but has been highly tried recently and is poised for a win sooner or later off his current handicap mark.
Royal Prize has put in three decent efforts at Newmarket since scoring at Kempton in September, 2012, but that’s put him up almost a stone since then without a pot to show for it.
However, he goes well fresh for a stable in form. And don’t worry about his absence for 127 days. Royal Prize (7.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) won first time back last year and, as a four-year-old should have improved. You’d think he’d be ‘got up’ for this.
Main danger may be the Deauville and Maisons winner Moonday Sun (stall 11), who has had one – satisfactory – run at Kempton since joining Amanda Perrett and is dropped in class.
The stable has had three runners on AW in 2014, a winner and two seconds, and this morning’s 11.5 on BETDAQ is terrific value.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Early-mouse BETDAQ punters seemed to overlook the two best horses in the race, Moonday Sun and Royal Prize. For third spot I take Emerald Wilderness, who will have had this race as a target.
3.35 Sandown Roalco De Farges returns after nearly two years to the scene of his impressive second in the Sandown Gold Cup but he’s never won when fresh and all his success has come with the word ‘good’ in the going return.
On Trend (8.0 on BETDAQ as I write) tries for back-to-back wins in similar conditions off a 10lb lower mark, and put in a fair round, fourth, at Kempton three weeks ago.
Jump City was runner-up, well in front of On Trend that day (Relax behind) and seemed to get the 3m well but all his success has been over shorter and he’s in and out of blinkers.
Ardkilly Witness has been in the first three every time (5-5) going right-handed but his winning form, too, is at 2m 5f and his only chase success came when he was left clear by fallers in a small field.
Pete The Feat gets further than today, which is useful, but he’s never won off such a high mark and, at 10, is unlikely to improve into it.
He was well in front of Theatrical Star when he fell two out at Chepstow in October, but his December win at Fontwell has cost him the ratings rise.
On Trend had a rear view of the Fontwell action but the handicapper has seen fit to drop him 11lb in the ensuing six weeks.
Soll has a big chance at the trip and in the company and the conditions, with form up to 25f of 211211, the last one a CD success on heavy last Spring.
Seventh in the Grand National and fifth in the London National, he is a huge horse who will shrug off the weight, returned to his milieu: 7.6 on BETDAQ, as I write.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Roalco De Farges would be involved at his best, On Trend has been given a chance by the handicapper, Ardkilly Witness loves to go right-handed, and Theatrical Star will enjoy the step up in trip.
It’s a very open race that’s likely to be decided by which horse has the stride to devour the heavy ground, jump through it and enjoy the slog up the final climb. The answer is Soll.
3.40 Fairyhouse Sherika is back over fences off a mark far lower than when winning over hurdles at Thurles. A Davy Russell scoop.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each, except in Daq Multiples)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) WHISPER (2.05 Ffos Las)
BET 3.3pts win EMPEROR’S CHOICE and 2.7pts win DE LA BECH (2.40 Ffos Las)
BET 3.3pts win ROYAL PRIZE and 2pts win and place (outsider of the day) MOONDAY SUN (2.55 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win SOLL (3.35 Sandown)
BET 4pts win SHERIKA (3.40 Fairyhouse)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble FLEMENSON (1.35 Wetherby), WHISPER (2.05 Ffos Las) and SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (3.20 Wetherby)
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