GLORIOUS DAY OF SUPER BANKER: Daqman landed four winners from just six races on the festival cards at Glorious Goodwood and Galway yesterday, including a bold banker nap on a 5-2 winner, all of them a reminder of BETDAQ value. Daqman’s headline was super confident: ‘Kings WILL be feted at Goodwood’:
WON 5-2 KING’S FETE (banker nap)
WON 9-4 THIKRIYAAT
(2nd 9-2 Forge for 11-1 forecast)
WON 7-4 FRANKLIN D (saver)
WON 10-3 GOLDEN SPEAR
NOW HE LANDS 60 BIG RACES: Daqman made it 60 up in feature races against Pricewise, taking the week’s tally to 3-2 and the season’s overall total to 60-27. The saver on Franklin D meant he did not waste a penny on his tips for the big handicap, where Pricewise was a loser. ‘But we won’t count that,’ says Daqman. ‘Give the chap a chance!’
TODAY: It’s a great racing day today with the Nassau Stakes and Stewards Cup at Goodwood, but Daqman naps in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Galway.
SEEKING MORE MAGIC AT GOODWOOD..
2.00 Goodwood (Stewards Cup Sprint) Not a favourite in sight in the decade among the winners of this Consolation for those missing the cut in the Cup.
Some 15 horses here are denied a chance of the main prize by only a couple of lengths (6lb-7lb). Eight horses only a pound or two higher are in the Cup itself.
You can, therefore, reckon on such class at the top of this handicap that the bottom half, particularly those below 9st have little or no chance.
Famous last words, after I yesterday dismissed the older horses and Take Cover won aged nine.
But we have to take a view, if we’re going to bet. That race was hard enough to divine with 17 runners, but how are you going to whittle down 28 in this and another 28 in the Cup?
Answer: it must be by stats; stable form; and past results; knowing that there are not too many monsters like Take Cover.
The 19.5 BETDAQ offer Hoof It won the Stewards Cup proper way back in 2011 off a 15lb higher mark and has his similar conditions today.
He misses the cut by a couple of pounds after returning to form with a second to the likely Cup favourite, Orion’s Bow, just 15 days ago in the Scottish Stewards Cup.
Seeking Magic (16.5 in the orange, as I write) won this very Consolation race in 2013 from, in second, none other than Take Cover.
If the vibes about Dancing Star for the Cup are right, then we must consider lightly-raced Projection (7.2), who gave that one weight when fourth at Newmarket early in the month.
CLASSIC-HOPE TABLE TOP AT TASTY 11.5
2.35 Goodwood This is where Sir Michael Stoute launched Ormonde and Hardwicke winner, Dartmouth, one of three in this race. He has two runners today.
Shraaoh didn’t act on the soft at Royal Ascot ands is worth another chance with Sir Michael landing a hat-trick yesterday.
Mark Johnston has won it four times and has four runners. Nothing new there, then.
Beaverbrook, Emperor Napoleon, Knights Table, Move Up, Regal Monarch, Shabbah and Soldier In Action have all made the running at one time or another, so you can expect a fast-run race.
Shabbah and Dal Harraild are set to run a dead-heat if reproducing their Ascot form.
The extra trip should suit Wall Of Fire but he is friendless in the BETDFAQ market. Knights Table is a St leger entry. I like him and the improver Gold Faith at 11.5 and 13.0 respectively.
3.10 Goodwood (Nassau Stakes) Minding is a Fortune Cookie, but she’s hardly a cracker here, more a pre-cooked main course at the high table which ordinary punters can’t get a taste of.
But, as a judicious hub to your Daq Multiples, she affords some leverage for all your mixed bets.
Bathos can finish off Goodwood, where I began.. with Mark Johnston. But first the nap at Galway and then the Stewards Cup analysis, final big line-up on the Sussex Downs.
LUCK BE A LADY FOR THE GALWAY NAP
3.15 Galway (Ladbrokes Hurdle) Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have won this three times in the decade and Willie is winning every other race he attempts at Galway (currently 10101). Ruby’s ridden four winners for him since Monday.
Westerner Lady is a tad higher in the weights than winners of this but she is gets 3m and I can see Ruby attacking this field.
Little Haarth came good on the last day but has a lot to find with Westerner Lady on a line through Master Appeal.
The Cromwell-Kane duo are having a great time but Plain Talking had a hard race when he won earlier in the week. Delegate is still a novice. Totalize has to give weight all round.
That leaves her Killarney runner-up, Ibsen, as the danger to Westerner Lady. Including the claim, Ibsen is now a stone better off for less than three lengths but tends to be a flatterer.
And, Lord Scoundrel apart, Gordon Elliott has had a shocking week (five in a row failed to finish; strike rate 1-13).
Westerner Lady, offered at 5.0 on BETDAQ this morning, will have to improve again to beat Ibsen and Plain Talking but I shall bet that she does, with circumstances seemingly against them.
HOLD TIGHT! THE CUP IS A POT OF GOLD
3.45 Goodwood (Stewards’ Cup) Fast and furious but with the top weight more than a stone behind yesterday’s King George Stakes winner.
Yet the top three in the handicap – Baccarat, Ridge Ranger and G Force – plus Jamesie, Toofi, Ninjago, Dinkum Diamond, Moonraker, Rivellino, Duke Of Firenze, Growl and Raucous have all attempted Group company.
If you check those out, as with the Consolation race, the quality stops at the 9st mark. Except for Raucous.
Since William Haggas has won this twice in the last eight years (at 12-1 and 40-1), Raucous must be taken seriously, as his recent third to The Tin Man at Newbury recommends.
But there are worrying signs. Tongue-tie and cheekpieces suggest vulnerability; as a three-year-old very much so, unless he’s a Magical Memory, one of only two of that age to score since 1983; and is the edge blunted by his having to emerge from stall 20?
Yes, if the sprints so far this week are any indication; no, on the last three results of this, won twice by high numbers. In that sort of situation, it always seems best to have one each side of the draw.
The key trend is that eight out of 10 winners came from the Wokingham: Spring Loaded and Toofi were seventh and eighth at Ascot; Dinkum Diamond, Ninjago and Poyle Vinnie further behind.
Toofi was 2nd, Rivellino 3rd, Dinkum Diamond 4th and Suzi’s Connoisseur 7th (not clear run) to Magical Memory in this Stewards Cup last year; Ninjago 2nd and Alben Star third in 2014; Jamesie 6th in 2012.
LOW-DRAW VERDICT: Red Pike should lead them along. Dancing Star is another three-year-old with top form, her Goodwood runner-up in June subsequently finishing third (Ridge Ranger fourth) to yesterday’s King George fifth, Marsha.
G Force, fifth to Take Cover in the 2014 King George Stakes, is a winner of the Haydock Sprint and is probably aimed that way again, though has changed stables since. This is his first handicap since May, 2014, after a string of decent efforts in Group 1 and 2.
Withernsea has won only on the soft. Orion’s Bow is up 37lb for his five-timer and has probably copped it now, particularly on firm ground (he’s a Pivotal). Verdict: the comparatively fresh G Force at 33.0 on BETDAQ.
HIGH-DRAW VERDICT: Baccarat is badly handicapped with Rivellino and Alben Star on his 2014 Wokingham win.
Toofi hasn’t won since breaking his maiden; always a bad sign. Rivellino has scored only on AW. Shared Equity is high in the handicap now.
Kimberella and Poyle Vinnie come close together on Chester form and Growl has a pull for an earlier win by Kimberella there.
Hold Tight is highly regarded, lightly raced and is related to Group winners Airwave and Jwala. Verdict: Another fresh horse, Hold Tight at 37.0.
There are strong vibes forDancing Star (7.0), who is backed separately to win 30, and I shall take the three-year-olds to continue their good run, adding Raucous at 18.0
POT-OF-GOLD BETS: I think G Force and Hold Tight should be no more than 16.0, requiring 3.3-point bets to win 50. I shall keep the same stakes and so return more than double my money (105 points G Force and 118 Hold Tight) if one of them wins.
STEWARDS’ CUP ORDER-IN: 1 Dancing Star, 2 Hold Tight, 3 G Force 4 Raucous
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated; Pot Of Gold bets have declared bonus targets over 100 points; see copy)
2.00 Goodwood
BET 5pts win PROJECTION; 2pts win and place SEEKING MAGIC, 1.5pts win and place HOOF IT
2.35 Goodwood
BET 2.8pts win KNIGHTS TABLE and 2.5pts win GOLD FAITH
3.10 Goodwood
FORTUNE COOKIE: 20pts win Minding
3.15 Galway
BET 3.5pts win WESTERNER LADY (nap)
3.45 Goodwood
POT OF GOLD BETS: 3.3pts win and place each on G FORCE and HOLD TIGHT, plus (to win 30) BET 5.3pts win DANCING STAR and 1.7pts win and place RAUCOUS
6.00 Goodwood
BET 3.5pts win and place BATHOS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Minding (3.10 Goodwood), Westerner Lady (3.15 Galway) and Bathos (6.00 Goodwood)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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