FIVE BANKERS IN A ROW AND 80 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman bounced back to form big time at Goodwood yesterday with his fifth consecutive winning banker, Montiridge (WON 5-6) – odds against on BETDAQ in the morning – and a total of 80 points profit (actually 79.96) on a day of four winners. Here’s how the day went (best-return form figures 111221):
Race 1 FORGOTTEN VOICE (WON 3-1)
Race 2 MONTIRIDGE (banker nap, WON 5-6)
Race 3 WENTWORTH (WON 6-1), Cape Peron (2nd 5-1)
Race 4 SWISS SPIRIT (2nd 6-1), Glass Office (4th 25-1)
Race 5 No bet
Race 6 WINNING EXPRESS (2nd 2-1)
Race 7 RETIREMENT PLAN (WON 4-1)
12 HIGH-STAKES WINNERS OUT OF 15: The Montiridge banker and a place lay on Dance And Dance brought Daqman’s 10-points-plus bets to 12 out of 15 (80%) and 17 from the last 22 (that’s a 77% strike rate). His bankers are 1011111, his naps 1111110211221 and his lays 111. Bets since July 21 are:
WON 5-4 (July 21): 12pts DANK (nap)
WON 6-4 (July 21): 13pts STRONGLY SUGGESTED
WON 5-4 (July 22): 10pts DJINNI (nap)
WON 5-6 (July 23): 20pts CUT THE CARDS (banker nap)
WON 6-4 (July 23): 12pts BENNACHIE
WON 8-15 (July 24): 10pts ROSIE PROBERT (nap)
WON 3-10 (July 25): 20pts PORTRAIT (banker nap)
WINNER (July 25): 10pts MARS (lay 2nd 8-11)
WINNER (July 27): 10pts CIRRUS DES AIGLES (lay 4th 6-4)
WON 2-5 (July 29): 20pts ROSIE PROBERT (banker nap)
2nd 10-11 (July 30): 10pts DAWN APPROACH (nap)
3rd 11-4 (July 30): 10pts PARBOLD
2nd 3-1 (Aug 01): 10pts ELIK (nap)
WON 5-6 (Aug 02): 20pts MONTIRIDGE (banker nap)
WINNER (Aug 02): 10pts DANCE AND DANCE (lay, 0)
2.05 Goodwood (Stewards Sprint) A string of big-priced winners at SP (10-1, 12-1, 28-1, 18-1, 22-1) and not much rhyme or reason in the stats but we’ll try to find a good long-shot.
Winners of this consolation and of the Cup itself later on have come from the low-four stalls (five), from 10 to 16 (eight) and from 19 to 22 (four).
You need a sharp sort but one with the stamina to outstay them at the finish: 8 out of 10 winners in the decade had been tried over 7f.
That deletes Yeeoow, Out Do, La Fortunata, Arctic Feeling, Dominate, Chooseday. I would add to the list Tax Free and Noverre To Go, whose 7f attempts were very early on in their careers and found them out.
Baby Strange, Noverre To Go, Tax Free and Piscean have all flopped in this race before. Seeking Magic and El Viento have run well in it.
There’s only been one winner in the decade below 9st so, on my stats, I am choosing from Enrol, Goldream, El Viento, Picture Dealer and Best Trip.
Best Trip (massive at 45.0) is really versatile, winning from 5f to 7f, a horse who can lead or go with the leaders, and the booking of Silvestre De Sopusa looks significant.
Enrol (9.0) is a more realistic choice: can travel well in touch (Doncaster, May) and comes with a strong run at this trip (Newmarket June): not given a hard time when chance had gone over 7f at Royal Ascot.
El Viento (17.0) has the headgear back on for the first time this season and claiming off these sprinters has a good record this year.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Enrol is the class horse; El Viento has been this way before; Best Trip is overpriced: 1 Enrol, 2 El Viento, 3 Best Trip.
2.40 Goodwood Every favourite in this has been turned over in the decade. Mark Johnston, who saddles three runners, has won it twice in five years, Sir Michael Stoute twice in six, including one off 9st 7lb, where Bold Sniper resides today.
Bold Sniper beat three last-time winners at Ascot three weeks ago and before that had this week’s Gordon Stakes winner, Cap O’Rushes, just behind him when third in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot but is badly in with the winner that day, Elidor.
Bold Sniper’s recent win came at the expense of Café Society (London Bridge third) who had beaten Royal Signaller in the Bibury Cup at Salisnbury in June.
The line suggests that Royal Signaller (a Goodwood winner from a stable that’s won this race twice) is 3lb well in here, yet he is 17.0 in the BETDAQ market as I write.
Pethers Moon was the unlucky horse in the King George V handicap, failing to get a clear run but finishing well, and was then the moral, giving 7lb to Havana Cooler but beaten only threeparts of a length. However that was only the second race of the season for Havana Cooler.
The enigma is Mark Johnston’s Royal Skies, who was on the bridle at this distance in a two-miler in the pattern, and was progressive before that.
DAQMAN’’S VERDICT: It’s a very hard race, in which the choice must be ‘wrong’ prices and improvers, which dictates 1 Havana Cooler, 2 Royal Skies, 3 Royal Signaller.
3.15 Goodwood (Nassau Stakes) Three-year-olds have won 25 of the last 33 (since 1980) and appear to have this one in the bag via the English (Sky Lantern) and Irish (Just The Judge) 1,000 Guineas winners and the potential of Integral.
Johnny Murtagh on Ambivalent will test them. I put her in front of the older horses because, in my view, the Meydan form, represented here by Sajjhaa, has not been working out on turf over here.
Among the Classic generation, I’m leaving out Ballydoyle’s Just Pretending: the Curragh Oaks, in which she was third (Magical Dream sixth) was run in as low time, and her splitting Riposte and Elik in the Ribblesdale no longer looks absolute top drawer, with both beaten since.
Just Pretending had run third to Just The Judge in the irish Guineas and Just The Judge was treated with disdain by Sky Lantern in the Coronation Stakes.
There are three major problems for punters however: the form of the Coronation and the two Guineas are at a mile not this 10 furlongs (the only three-year–old winners at this trip are Banoffee and Winsili); secondly, we don’t know whether Hot Snap, who beat Sky Lantern in the Spring, can bounce back here after her flop (beaten favourite) in the Guineas.
It may have been firm ground that stopped Hot Snap (a daughter of Pivotal) in the Guineas, so she may have been unlucky again today with the drying ground.
Thirdly, the doubt about Sky Lantern is that no filly has ever been able to go on to a four-timer here (or nearly so) after Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Falmouth (pipped controversially by Elusive Kate.
DAQMAN’S BIG-RACE VERDICT: Inexperience may slot Integral into a place at best; no filly has won this since 1979 without Group performances on her CV.
Just The Judge carries the Qatari flag instead of Oaks runner-up Secret Gesture and may have revenge on Sky Lantern at this trip after the Guiness winner’s succession of hard races.
Winsili’s chance may have been ruined by stall 15 (no winner in the decade higher than 10). So it’s 1 Just The Judge, 2 Sky Lantern, 3 Integral.
3.50 Goodwood (Stewards’ Cup) There’s been only one winner over the age of six in 35 years. Just one outright favourite has scored in the last 15 seasons.
Six of the last eight winners carried 9st 1lb or more. Seven northern-trained horses have won this century. Richard Hughes (3) and two each for Jamie Spencer and Kieren Fallon are scores for the winningmost jockeys.
But perhaps the most significant stats are that seven Stewards’ Cup winners in the decade had run well in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and seven had races over 7f on their CVs, suggesting that the cavalry charge requires a stamina finish.
Rex Imperator fits this profile. York Glory just about fits all the stats, as Wokingham winner (Shropshire second,) Dinkum Diamond third, Prodigality 10th, 7f-placer Louis The Pious 12th).
Dean Ivory’s York Dash winner Tropics has been second over a mile. Heavens Guest has won at 7f. Ninjago (Jersey Stakes 8th with Blaine in rear) has been placed over 7f.
Burwaaz (in rear Royal Hunt Cup, previously placed 7f) ran well enough at Royal Ascot, but not in the Wokingham. A tail-flasher, Burwaaz is clearly quirky andfblinkers may help. Ninjago would be only the second three-year-old winner in 29 years and he’s missed a recent race because of firm ground.
York Glory, the 2011 winner Hoof It (clearly aimed only at this race), and Rex Imperator all have Group-1 entries.
DAQMAN’S BIG-RACE VERDICT: I’m impressed with the progress of York Glory (12.0 on BETDAQ), and put him first since Rex Imperator (17.0) keeps going up in the weights for being placed, I fear Hoof It (19.0), back on his 2011 winning mark of 111. The 1-2-3: 1 York Glory, 2 Hoof It, 3 Rex Imperator
DAQMAN’S BETS:
selections are to win 30 points. Value is where races are 110% or less in the BETDAQ orange. Gold Value means Daqman opposed the favourite in such a punter-friendlylist.
BET 3.75pts win ENROL, 1.8pts win EL VIENTO, and 0.6pts win and place BEST TRIP (2.05 Goodwood)
VALUE BETS: 6pts win on each HAVANA COOLER and ROYAL SKIES, and 1.8pts win and place ROYAL SIGNALLER (2.40 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.2pts win JUST THE JUDGE and 2pts win (stakes saver) SKY LANTERN (3.15 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BET: 2.7pts win YORK GLORY, 1.8pts win REX IMPERATOR, 1.7pts win HOOF IT (3.50 Goodwood)
VALUE BET: 12pts win (nap) KASTINI (8.00 Lingfield)
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