JOIN THE DAQMAN VALUE HUNT FOR THE BIG BET IN THE EBOR: Daqman has had Group-race winners every day in York week but has missed ‘the big one’ so far, a 10-1 handicap hit beaten on the nod. Can he strike today in the Ebor Handicap, which he’s won at 5-1 and 20-1 in the decade for BETDAQ punters at 10.0 and 29.0? He took 13.5, 26.0 and 60.0 value this morning. Headlines:
🔹 WHOSE RATINGS FAILED THE TV TEST?
🔹 UPBEAT ABOUT CELEBRATION MILE..
🔹 FRANKIE AND BEN TO CHIME IN EBOR
🔹 GETTING OUT WITH THOR’S HAMMER!
THIS WEEK’S DAQMAN WINNERS
WON 5-1 JAPAN (Juddmonte International)
WON (2ND 10-1) VALE OF KENT (bull’s-eye bet)
WON 2-1 ALPINE STAR (Debutante Stakes)
WON 11-10 THREAT (Gimcrack Stakes)
WON 10-11 LOGICIAN (Great Voltigeur)
WON 4-9 STRADIVARIUS (Lonsdale Cup)
WON 1-4 ENABLE (Yorkshire Oaks)
DAQMAN’S CURRENT ACCOUNTS
Daqman 61 Pricewise 28 Daqman 448 points clear to 10pt stakes
Bull’s-eye naps (7-14 for 50% strike rate) 259 points, recommended stakes
Supernaps (18-27 for 67% strike rate) 98 points up to 20pt stakes
WHOSE RATINGS FAILED THE TV TEST?
DAY-3 VERDICT: I believe I’ve won one argument with ITV Racing this week (who’s world champion)? Here’s another, following on Matt Chapman’s observation that Stradivarius had stood still in his rating, claiming that it revealed he’s beaten the same old same old, proving that the crop of stayers aren’t worth much.
Perhaps he’d like to check out the thread of Stradivarius’ official ratings, alongside any movement in those of Enable and of his precious Crystal Ocean.
Enable 120, 122, 126, 128, 125, 125, 126
Crystal Ocean 129, 129, 125, 125, 125, 127, 127
Stradivarius 116, 118, 118, 118, 118, 118, 120, 120, 120, 120, 121
Using his logic, would he now like to tell us that Crystal Ocean had dipped in his rating and has failed to re-establish himself at the top; or that Enable is, like Stradivarius, plodding along at the same level with nothing to beat?
Battaash? The ITV team chant was less confident was absent but one who went for him right at the ‘off’ was guest Kevin Blake, a man who does his homework and an influence for credibility and track assessment if not always ‘the word’ on the day.
Can we expect goings-on in the transfer market? I hope so. Or will viewers, so used to the dumbing down everywhere, swallow the tipping-in-the-round throwaway style of so-called experts which takes time away from genuine assessment.
I’ll bet you a pound the ‘Battaash’ cry will be back, but this time they’ll want to nominate him ‘world champion.’ That’s just my crystal ball speaking, of course. A drop in the ocean, Mr Chapman?
YORK TRAINERS UPDATE: William Haggas (20), John Gosden (14), Kevin Ryan (14), Sir Michael Stoute (10), David O’Meara (9), Richard Fahey (9) Charlie Appleby (8), Aidan O’Brien (8), Michael Dods (7), Tim Easterby (7), Richard Hannon (7), Charles Hills (6), Saeed Bin Suroor (6), Andrew Balding (5), Mark Johnston (5), John Quinn (4), Dermot Weld (4), Tony Martin (3), Karl Burke (3), Tom Dascombe (3), Hugo Palmer (3), Michael Bell (3), Roger Varian (3).
JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori (24), Jamie Spencer (13), William Buick (12), James Doyle (10), Oisin Murphy (9), Daniel Tudhope (9), Ryan Moore (8), Paul Hanagan (8), Silvestre De Sousa (7), Philip Makin (7), Andrea Atzeni (5), Jim Crowley (5), David Allan (4), Robert Winston (4), Tom Queally (4), Ben Curtis (3), George Baker (3), Harry Bentley (3), Paul Mulrennan (3), Richard Kingscote (3), Luke Morris (3).
SATURDAY FAVOURITES: 1.50 70% and one joint; 2.25 10% and one co; 3.00 20% and three jt/co; 3.40 0%; 4.10 0%; 4.45 20%; 5.20 20% plus two jt.
DRAW: 1.55 10-17 60%; 2.25 avoid stall 1; 3.40 90% in double figures, 15-22 80%; 4.45 avoid stall 1.
GOING: Good to firm, good in places (partly cloudy)
UPBEAT ABOUT CELEBRATION MILE..
2.05 Goodwood (Ladbrokes Celebration Mile) Third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, fourth in the Irish and in the St James’s Palace Stakes, Skardu drops a grade here. Today’s race is a modest renewal but he clearly lacks finish and his stable has just had 20 consecutive losers.
Sussex Stakes fourth Happy Power (BETDAQ 6.4) is little more than a length behind him on collateral form, and represents the form line that wins this Mile.
Duke Of Hazzard took a Group 3 here last time and the filly, Nyaleti, the only older horse, is a winner at Listed level on the course but only fifth in this race last year.
Beat Le Bon improved to win the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood but, for this tilt at the Pattern, I needed a price, and got it on BETDAQ: 5.4 this morning.
2.25 York (1m 6f Melrose Handicap) A mini-Ebor for three-year-olds, featuring Frankie on John Gosden’s First In Line, bred in the purple, with Golden Horn’s dam a half-sister to the Daylami mare who was first in line to visit his sire, New Approach.
A rare (these days) Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse, Land Of Oz, is given a chance in top company, improved a stone this season and getting a stone from First in Line (BETDAQ 4.9).
Eminence (7.2) looks a big danger stepped up to a trip that should suit, after his King George V third at Royal Ascot, and this could be a head-to-head between Detori and Ryan Moore.
The Eminence form could give Sir Ron Priestley a boost for the Ladbrokes March Stakes (3.50 Goodwood) when John Gosden runs another lightly raced cracker in Promissory. I’ll stick with Gosden.
2.40 Goodwood (Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes) As well as Land Of Oz, Sir Mark Prescott could be in the money with the Frankel grey filly, Alpinista,
an easy winner at Epsom, a good trial for this course.
Boomer (at 3.45 offers) is a classy sort and a big danger but 6.0 Alpinista puts her in the category of BETDAQ morning value.
FRANKIE AND BEN TO CHIME IN EBOR
3.40 York (1m 6f Ebor Handicap) On the ratings, this is now a Group 3 masquerading as a handicap, with all bar four of the runners separated by a mere 5lb. It’s the way the game’s been going.
In fact, the likely favourite has not raced at Group level, despite pressure from his owners to do so. His eight wins from nine suggest that King’s Advice is well up to this task today, albeit 42lb higher than when his winning sequence began in the Spring.
He’s packed in nine races in five months but seems to lose none of his enthusiasm and this may be his stepping-stone to the Irish St Leger; the Pattern at long last!
Baghdad, Barsanti, Ben Vrackie, Cleonte, Desert Skyline, Dramatic Queen, Max Dynamite, Mekong, Mustajeer, Prince Of Arran, Raheen House, Raymond Tusk, Red Galileo, Red Verdon, True Self, Weekender and Wells Farrh Go have all won or been placed at Group level
Four-year-olds have won only three Ebors this century, just as winners older than six are rare, and horses drawn in single figures usually get well swallowed up.
That gives us a stats short list of: King’s Advice, Red Verdon, Weekender, Desert Skyline, Kellys Dino and Prince Of Arran.
I’m not a great Ed Dunlop fan but he has campaigned Red Verdon at the highest level and the way he was ridden to victory in the John Smith’s Silver Cup here at York on the last day was perfection for the track by David Allan.
Allan now switches to Wells Farrh Go, dual winner at York who is likely to try to try to make all today and will have been saved up for this handicap debut by local trainer, Tim Easterby. May need rain.
Frankie Dettori rides Ben Vrackie, a Fortune Cookie, slowly into his stride (and later ‘not clear run’) behind Kings Advice and Desert Skyline at Newmarket but said afterwards to be ‘still on course for the Ebor.’
He had been only once out of the frame since his debut and just failed to catch Baghdad in the Duke Of Edinburgh (1m 4f levels) at Royal Ascot.
Desert Skyline, who has been running in Group 1 and 2 for most of his career, is 10lb better for around three lengths with Kings Advice on Newmarket (July) form.
Winner of Cesarewitch, Northumberland Plate and Marsh Cup, Withhold is up 26lb but a big player again. Mekong could be good enough, though only four.
I’d want to be on True Self if the ground came up soft, but best of the Irish in the conditions is Mustajeer, who got going too late when fourth a year ago.
He’s 6lb lower now but had a good draw last year and his stall 2 today means he’ll be having to weave through from the back again, unless plenty of use is made of him early. He has a champion to help him in Colin Keane.
Prince Of Arran is the ‘hidden horse’, 8lb better with the winner, Withhold, for a near-three-lengths defeat in the 2018 Northumberland Plate and third in the Melbourne Cup.
Reappeared at Glorious Goodwood, his first run in England since the 2018 Chester Cup. Has had health problems but connections are confident of a decent run.
Daqman’s order in: 1 Ben Vrackie (13.5 on BETDAQ), 2 Mustajeer (26.0), 3, Prince Of Arran (60.0), 4 Wells Farrh Go, 5 Desert Skyline, 6 Kings Advice, 7 Withhold.
GETTING OUT WITH THOR’S HAMMER
3.50 Goodwood (Ladbrokes March Stakes in memory of John Dunlop) There’s a situation here similar to the Mile earlier on, Manuela De Vega having run fourth in the Epsom Oaks but lacking a finish in two attempts since then.
Sir Ron Priestley and Promissory, both St Leger hopes, have ‘improver’ written all over them, Sir Ron up 19lb since his exploits began in the Spring, and the 3.9 offer Promissory, a 1,100,000gns daughter of Dubawi.
5.20 York (5f handicap) The getting-out stakes isn’t, unless you’re a layer. To be fair, although it’s an apprentice handicap, there’s been only one winner bigger than 7-1 SP.
Stick with Yorkshire stables and with boys who no longer claiming or who claim only 3lb. I was impressed with Phil Dennis (Excellent Times) earlier in the week; Michael Dods has won this race twice in the last three years, and Que Amoro (12.5) scored at the last meeting on this course.
Wedding Date (17.5) won here in May; Richard Hannon stable in form; and suited by a strongly-run 5f and Terry ‘Thor’s Hammer’ Hansen is a capable rider.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 York (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win WISSAHICKON
2.05 Goodwood (each to win 20)
BET 4.5pts win BEAT LE BON
BET 34.7 5pts win HAPPY POWER
2.25 York (win 30)
BET 7.5pts win FIRST IN LINE
BET 4.75pts win EMINENCE
2.40 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 4pts win ALPINISTA
3.40 York (bull’s-eye bets to win 50, win 20 place)
BET 4pts win BEN VRACKIE
BET 2pts win and 5pts place MUSTAJEER
BET 0.85pts win and 2.5pts place PRINCE OF ARRAN
3.50 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 6pts win (nap) PROMISSORY
5.20 York (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win QUE AMORO
BET 1.25pts win WEDDING DATE
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