BELL TOLLS FOR THE LAYERS AS DAQMAN LANDS A BIG-RACE NAP: Daqman landed his nap in the Lanark Silver Bell at Hamilton last night when the three-year-old Mahrajaan was pushed clear of older horses and, with two winners, made it a profitable day.
WON 3-1 CAIRN ISLAND
WON 6-5 MAHRAJAAN (nap)
DAQMAN DARES A LAY AT GOODWOOD: WILL IT BE A CELEBRATION? Daqman takes a 51-30 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post into Celebration Mile day at Goodwood today. The archrivals also clash in the Beverley Bullet. Daqman dares a lay in one of the big races, with his record on 70%. Current standings:
DAQMAN 51, PRICEWISE 30
SUPERNAPS 15-19 (79%)
LAYS LOGIC 12-17 (70%)
BULL’S-EYE NAPS 1-3 (33%)
MUTASAABEQ BETDAQ VALUE 6.0
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood (Celebration Mile) SEE Daqman Archive, Thursday.
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: Three-year-old Acanella (16-1) under champion-elect Colin Keane beat Champers Elysees (4yo) in the Group 3 fillies and mares at the Curragh last night though, officially, she was rated only 96 to the runner-up’s 113.
My form-and-facts column on this Celebration Mile showed Benbatl honours likely on the ratings but, since then, Pret A Plonger anoraks and bloggers, followed today by the Trends man among the ‘200 experts’ of the trade paper, have echoed the Benbatl cry.
Trends can be cherry picked so let’s do a bit of cherry picking of our own. Benbatl has won only once in England in more than four years (June, 2017); at the time that was his only home success since his maiden.
And his trainer warns that he will improve for the run today, suggesting it’s a pipe-opener with known targets abroad again.
Why do we BETDAQ punters enjoy hype? We say ‘thankyou very much’ because we know that overbetting spells L-A-Y. But my rule for a lay, based on minimum overall success rate, is 3-1 or less.
And this morning Chindit was edging favouritism over Benbatl. SP only goes on the account; otherwise such bets might be disputed in the broad arena of offers.
LAYS LOGIC: Only one horse aged eight (Stormy Antarctic) and NONE aged seven (Benbatl) has won this race in the 53 runnings since it started in 1967.
The eight-year-old winner was Premio Loco (2012) and, on the face of it, you’d be loco to back an older horse today, even a six-year-old: only four have ever won, though three of them recently and the domination of the race by second-season animals (11 in a row at one stage) seems to have faded, though they are well clear: of the 53, three-year-olds 34; 4-y-o 8; 5-y-o 6.
But further examination reveals that no three-year-old even took part in one of the recent Celebration wins by older horses; and last year there was only one. Today’s Classic-season trio are Chindit, Mutasaabeq and Perotto.
Chindit has faced an array of champions in defeat: St Mark’s Basilica, Poetic Flare (twice) and Palace Pier. Both he and Mutasaabeq set themselves up for the Guineas with first-time wins in the Spring and finished only a length and half apart at Newmarket.
Mutasaabeq is a ‘character’ but was half Chindit’s price, only 6-1 for a Guineas, and showed the last day that Charles Hills has now established some mind control; he quickened exceptionally at Haydock.
Perotto has course advantage – a winner twice there – but so has Jim Crowley as the jockey on Mutasaabeq, having ridden Goodwood winners of just under £4million in prizemoney.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 6.0 Mutasaabeq
TINDERBOX COULD CATCH FIRE
⭕ 1.50 Goodwood (Prestige Stakes) Bet of the day: Chapman to call Al Rufaa the ‘roughy who isn’t one’. In fact, ‘Rufaa’ is Swahili so it’s another fair bet Chapman knows what it means (‘kind and affectionate’).
Al Rufaa (2.25) is one of two rides for Frankie Dettori on Team Gosden runners at Goodwood today, starting in the opening race with the grey filly Tinderbox (1.50).
Her defeat of Silk Romance at Kempton 17 days ago was franked good and proper only yesterday when Silk Romance reappeared and landed the odds by more than five lengths at Newmarket.
‘Won going away and one for the pattern,’ was the Raceform verdict on yesterday’s winner and I fell over myself to get on Tinderbox at 7.6, checking the race replay to see how comfortably she beat Silk Romance at Kempton.
Can she beat another Kempton winner, Dabeh, who was placed at Deauville the last day without having the best of runs? For sure yesterday’s results could make Tinderbox catch fire in the market!
BETDAQ value 7.6 Tinderbox
BUICK BACK ON 9.0 CRUSADE
⭕ 2.05 Beverley (Silver Cup) Life On The Rocks wasn’t fancied by his new stable (12-1 shot), who stepped him up to this 1m 2f at Ripon. He didn’t really give his consent and form figures of 4323 look ominous.
The cheekpieces are on Barn Owl who has twice failed to step up from his class-5 win over further. Farhan’s best form is with cut in the ground.
Titian won at Newcastle and his third, staying on, in a better grade at Doncaster suggests today’s the day at the trip. He’s obviously had his problems since then but that’s why he’s 5.8.
⭕ 2.45 Newmarket This Listed is a fine placing by Charlie Appleby to break Royal Crusade’s losing sequence in the pattern of eight Group races in a row, first run after being gelded. One of six rides at the meeting for William Buick.
At this time last year Buick rode the Crusade to victory at Deauville over Glen Shiel, now rated 116.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.0 Royal Crusade
LOW DRAWN, SIGNIFICANTLY
⭕ 3.15 Beverley (Bullet) Seven of the last nine winners shot to victory from stalls 1 to 4, where the three-year-old Significantly (out of 3) is primed for another good run this season.
Karl Burke’s colt has won at 6f so the tough finish of this minimum at Beverley is perfectly well within his sights.
Significantly came within half a length of a Listed success as a two-year-old and deserves this second chance after a season in which he scored back to back at Ascot, one on a sound surface, one on heavy.
Hurricane Ivor was beaten only a short head, trying to give Significantly 8lb in the good-ground race but has been withdrawn this morning, which leaves the nine-year-old Judicial and the soft-ground winner of this last season, Dakota Gold.
Tis Marvellous also prefers cut in the ground.
BETDAQ value 8.2 Significantly
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Goodwood (win-50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 7.5pts win TINDERBOX
2.05 Beverley (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win TITIAN
2.45 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ROYAL CRUSADE
3.15 Beverley (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win SIGNIFICANTLY
3.35 Goodwood (win 30)
BET 6pts win MUTASAABEQ
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
