‘KING’ OF THE NATIONAL! HE’S OUT ON HIS OWN: Champion tipster Daqman makes every race a date with destiny and today he dares to lay the ante-post favourite, On His Own, and pick a cross-country horse, Balthazar King, to take chasing’s Aintree throne.
‘OVERS’ TO YOU, BIG-VALUE BETDAQ! Daqman is already celebrating the race with massive ‘overs’, the bigger offers he took on BETDAQ ante-post over and above the prices you can get on the day. Now he finds that other races on today’s card give punters a huge advantage.
All due respect to a lady but it’s BETDAQ which grabs my National headlines. Betdaq has been more than generous to me ante-post and this morning offers all through the day were mouth-watering for value.
I see Katie Walsh and Seabass as market leaders at the ‘off’ for the second year running. I think she’ll be placed for the second year running.
But I’m laying the ante-post favourite, On His Own. He is inexperienced and was overhyped for going well when, in truth, he fell last year.
My luck has not been a lady at Aintree. She has been a big tease this week, a right little madam! One day she serves shocks at up to 100-1, the next all four hot favourites score, with combined odds barely out of single figures.
The National field looks the biggest tease of all, a very open race. But, thanks to BETDAQ, I’m in front of the game. As at Cheltenham, betting ante-post on the exchange for Aintree has secured me a massive start on my personal Grand National book. Taking the average of bookmakers’ prices this morning, I have 25 points of ‘overs.’
What I need now is the on-the-day bet, already paid for in effect by my ‘overs’: a horse whose stable is flying, who likes the change in the going this week and who is still the ‘wrong’ odds.
Value betting becomes possible all day today when you check out the BETDAQ total percentages for each race: 102, 102, 103, 105, 102, 112, 109, at the time of writing.
Check out last year’s total probability at starting price and compare: you get a staggering difference: 124, 107, 125, 121, 152, 134, 126. Just look at that 152 (52% take-out) on the Grand National. Here’s what I have for this year’s race so far:
Jackpot bet (win 50) 2.2pts CAPPA BLEU 23.0 (now 10-1)
Jackpot bet (win 50) 2.4pts BALTHAZAR KING 22.0 (now 16-1)
Jackpot bet (win 30) 1.7pts JOIN TOGETHER 18.0 (now 16-1)
If you haven’t already done so, as a check during your own analysis, you will find my ABC guide with the ‘X’ Factor in the Daqman Archive, a quick flip of the cursor away, below my ‘Latest’ copy, which you are reading now!
1.45 Aintree (Mersey Novices’ Hurdle) Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty are looking for a hat-trick in this (after Spirit Son and Simonsig) on a day when Henderson could seal the trainers’ title, if Paul Nicholls fails to land back-to-back Grand Nationals.
Nicholls saddles Dodging Bullets, best horse in the field by a stone according to the ratings, but a flop at Cheltenham when stressed before the race.
Earplugs are fitted to help him today but it’s Nicholls who will need them if the Liverpool crowd roars home the Henderson (Utopie Des Bordes).
Don McCain describes Up And Go as ‘the perfect horse’ for the race but is worried about the ground.
I thought the little ferret of a mare Utopie Des Bordes was going to place in the Albert Bartlett over 3m, despite not liking the track, but she ran out of gas up the hill. She’s built to nip round here and 5.8 looks big.
2.15 Aintree (Magull Novices’ Chase) When I put up Baily Green and Overturn after their second and fourth at Cheltenham as horses to follow for the rest of the jumps season, it was for totally different reasons, the one, Baily Green, because he’d run well, second to Simonsig, the other, Overturn, because he’d be more suited to Aintree and the better ground.
I thought Baily Green would wait for Punchestown and I didn’t expect them to meet here but meet they do, with Grand Annual winner, Alderwood, standing in the way of a 1-2.
It’s a hard race to call and the trio are separated by only 0.70 points on BETDAQ as I write. But I would always come down on the side of the improver and the younger horse. Baily Green is both.
2.50 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle) All the stats for this were made meaningless by a four-timer from Big Buck’s.
Meister Eckhart and Master Of The Sea, second and fourth at Cheltenham, didn’t do a lot for Medinas’ County Hurdle form yesterday, while World Hurdle placed horses,
Celestial Halo and Smad Place, have it all to do to reverse the form with the winner, Solwhit.
And I can’t have the King-George-placed Grands Crus trying to do a Big Buck’s, with few positives from his trainer’s mouth in the trade paper this morning.
All week we’ve had the problem: will the favourite double up from Cheltenham or will a hard race then have left this one behind? So far Cheltenham form has proved definitive in the championship races. Solwhit would prefer a softer surface but there was no doubting his authority at Cheltenham.
Holywell has improved 22lb since December. That’s a big plus, but the minus that goes with it is that he’s done for his chance in handicaps now, so destined to be an ‘in-between’ horse unless he can step up here.
3 25 Aintree (John Smith’s Chase) Don’t Push It, the 2009 winner of this, went on to take the 2010 Grand National. Is that a pointer for last year’s John Smith’s winner, Saint Are, for today’s big race?
Success for Opening Batsman would please Nicky Henderson’s fans: his Roberto Goldback was fifth behind him in the old Racing Post Chase on the way to National this afternoon.
Duke Of Lucca, and Cannington Brook, second and sixth in the United House Gold Cup, would also boost Roberto Goldback, who was the winner that day at Ascot in November.
But Cannington Brook seems to prefer plenty of cut in the ground and Opening Batsman beat Duke Of Lucca well enough at Kempton.
Battle Group, who won easily over hurdles here on the first day, has the same rating over fences and was second in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark.
Cantlow was second in the Sefton here as a novice and third in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival last March. His switch to fencing hasn’t seen him in the same light but better ground should make a big difference.
4.15 Aintree (the Grand National) Your Grand National bet should never have fallen in his life; have already won beyond 3m and scored in a big field (of 16 or more runners).
You need him to be a clean-winded, straightforward horse, one who’s never had to resort to blinkers, visors, cheekpieces, eye-pieces, all those aids which in a race like this reveal that, to put it simply, he needs help!
The following have at least three of the four attributes: Across The Bay, Ballabriggs, Balthazar King, Cappa Bleu, Imperial Commander, Join Together, Major Malarkey, Mr Moonshine, Mumbles Head, On His Own, Oscar Time, Rare Bob, Saint Are, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy and Teaforthree.
I will take out those I’ve already backed and those with the aids I’ve criticized; I’ll remove horses aged 12; and I’ll dismiss soft-ground-only winners, and I reckon those off 10st 6lb and lower simply don’t have the speed this year.
That leaves On His Own, Rare Bob, Saint Are, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree. I think Teaforthree is better in soft ground; On His Own was looking good last year before he fell, but then he did fall. Like Saint Are, and such as Lost Glory, he is inexperienced.
Seabass seems to me the sort to be up there all the way and just not have the legs left to win it; a formidable conundrum for Katie Walsh. Sunnyhillboy also has a place chance only, with his hike in the weights from last year. Rare Bob’s class stands out in the bottom half of the race.
Jackpot bet (win 30) 1.1pts win and place RARE BOB at 28.0
Every year the Grand National produces a story worthy of front-page headlines: Red Rum’s hat-trick; cancer-victim Bob Champion’s win on the crock Aldaniti; Mon Mome at 100-1; Tony McCoy at last the winner on Don’t Push It. This year, which of seven stories might they tell? First my order-in:
1 Balthazar King PRO Brilliant jumper who broke Irish stranglehold on marathon cross-country events. CON Has tended to be a front-runner and most National winners come from a midfield position, held up. VERDICT Rely on Richard Johnson to settle him
2 Join Together PRO Narrowly beaten in Becher Chase, staying on strongly over the National fences; ground will suit and trainer and jockey won last year. CON Has two ways of running and obviously needs to be on a going day. VERDICT The market will tell you if today is the day.
3 Seabass PRO Ran really well last year to be third; trained for the race and always gives his running. CON Another who likes to be up there and 5lb higher than 2012. VERDICT Heartbreaking, as he’s placed again without winning.
4 Cappa Bleu PRO Fourth last year and jockey Paul Moloney’s last four National mounts have finished 4344. Trained specially for the race. CON Needs to have improved his jumping, having lost ground at several fences last year. VERDICT Third or fourth.
5 Rare Bob PRO Well handicapped and returning to form at the right time. Trained for the race and stable going well this year. CON Overall form uninspiring VERDICT Classy lightweight.
6 Sunnyhillboy went so close last year but is 10lb higher.
7 Chicago Grey 4m winner who has had wind op and is 9lb lower than last year but has jumping issues.
8 Teaforthree 4m winner who jumps well but another who likes to bowl along with the leaders.
9 Colbert Station choice of Tony McCoy but if he took so long to decide he can’t be anything special.
10 Imperial Commander the class horse of the race but with too much weight.
11 Saint Are a 3m hurdle winner so likely marathon stayer but only seven years old.
* Seven stories to tell: Seabass first winner for a lady rider; Chicago Grey the second winning grey in succession; Rare Bob for champion jockey of the future Bryan Cooper.
Join Together means that Paul Nicholls comes from behind to pip Nicky Henderson for champion trainer; or, alternatively, Nicky Henderson seals a great year with Roberto Goldback.
Maybe record-breaking Irish trainer this year, Willie Mullins proves he’s On His Own.. or is it one wacky headline I couldn’t dream up, a Foinavon year which causes a Major Malarkey!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win UTOPIE DES BORDES and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) UP AND GO (1.45 Aintree)
BET 7.2pts win BAILY GREEN (2.15 Aintree)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) SOLWHIT, 1.4pts win and place HOLYWELL (2.50 Aintree)
BET 3.4pts win CANTLOW, 2.7pts win OPENING BATSMAN and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) BATTLE GROUP (3.25 Aintree)
LAY FOR A PLACE 10pts On His Own ANTE-POST: win-50 jackpot bets: 2.4pts win BALTHAZAR KING at 22.0 and 2.2pts CAPPA BLEU at 23.0. Win-30 jackpot bets: 1.7pts JOIN TOGETHER at 18.0 and TODAY: win-30 jackpot: 1.1pts win and place RARE BOB at 28.0 (all 4.25 Aintree Grand National)
BET 0.7pts win and place PAINTBALL (5.10 Aintree)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Baily Green, Overturn (2.15 Aintree), Hoarding (3.00 Lingfield), Seabass and Cappa Bleu (4.25 Aintree)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
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