TWO DAYS AT AINTREE: TWO NAPS UP: It’s that man again! Daqman, whose best bet was Silviniaco Conti (WON 9-4) on the opening day, yesterday had a 14-point nap on Josses Hill (WON 6-4 from 3.0 on BETDAQ) on Day 2 at Aintree.
NOW IT’S DAQMAN 6, PRICEWISE 0: Josses Hill steered Daqman further ahead of Pricewise in the feature races both have tipped in: 6-0 since the start of the Flat, 45-12 overall since the start of the jumps season. Now he goes for the 50 up today with win, place and lay:
NATIONAL PLOT 1
55-1 ANTE-POST COUP: Daqman has 56.0 Rocky Creek and 39.0 Balthazar King ante-post on BETDAQ.
NATIONAL PLOT 2
LAYS HAT-TRICK BID: He dares to lay two fancied horses in the big race (plus the 5.10 favourite).
IS THIS THE 2014 AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL RESULT?
A Across The Bay B Burton Port C Colbert Station
NO, IT’S A REMINDER TO READ DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE
Check it out in the Daqman Archive (Tuesday’s column CLICK HERE)
MORE FACTS AND FIGURES at the foot of this column
AT FISHERS CROSS THE BANKER
1.30 Aintree It looked like another old-firm match. Nicky Henderson (Oscar Hoof, Volnay De Thaix) is 112 in this since 2011 and Paul Nicholls (Lac Fontana) 111330 since 2004.
But Wilde Blue Yonder leapfrogged to the front of the BETDAQ market (104% orange) this morning, on the basis of having been only two-and-a-half lengths behind yesterday’s hero Josses Hill in Vautour’s Triumph Hurdle.
I’m never keen on early-season novice form (‘Blue’ won two in November) though his stable was under a cloud when he twice fell (when leading) before Cheltenham.
For me, the risk is not built into a favourite’s price, and this is another half-mile, with the form book telling us that front-runners Monkey Kingdom, Kayf Moss, Splash of Ginge and Volnay De Thaix could make it a very searching test.
Those with stamina in their pedigree are Kayf Moss, Kilcooley, Monkey Kingdom, No No Romeo, Oscar Hoof, Splash of Ginge, Un Ace and Wilde Blue Yonder. I took 7.0 Oscar Hoof for the in-form Barry Geraghty.
2.05 Aintree Sprinter Sacre and Tidal Bay have won this but last year Henry De Bromhead – responsible for Moscow Mannon today – sprang a 28-1 surprise, an even bigger shock as it followed a 1-7 favourite the year before.
Moscow Mannon needs more rain, and Tony McCoy on Arkle third Trifolium must go close – and win – if the ground turns soft-heavy.
But, assuming a good-to-soft surface, Next Sensation should hare off in front and set it up for a match between Balder Success and Hinterland.
Balder Success has been saved for this, and is a winner over further who will appreciate a stiff test. Hinterland was thought worth a crack at the Champion Chase but was badly hampered and unseated.
I could get 4.6 and 4.1 respectively on BETDAQ this morning and the 101% punter-friendly orange persuaded me to dutch.
2.50 Aintree Hats off to Big Buck’s and Solwhit who dominated this for five years. But it’s all change in the stayers’ arena this season, though Thousand Stars, aged 10, doesn’t seem to know it.
He’s been placed three times at the meeting, so why not step him back up in trip and have another go? I think they’ll retire him after this.
Zarkandar beat The New One and Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle at this meeting last year but World Hurdle third At Fishers Cross, who won the 2013 Sefton, is the three-miler here and A P McCoy is back to big-race form.
3.25 Aintree The top half dozen have a tough time in this Listed handicap, with best result in the decade for horses carrying more than 11st a modest 4321003023.
Favourites don’t fare much better but the only horses – Holywell and Wexstern Warhorse -to beat Victor Hewgo this year have scored two at Cheltenham (including the Arkle) and one at Aintree already.
ROCKY CAN LAND THE BIG PUNCH
‘Reynoldstown, Oxo, Mr What, Red Rum, Jay Trump, Anglo, Gay Trip, Party Politics, Corbiere and Bindaree were Grand National heroes all aged eight and four of them carried 10st 13lb or more. Easier fences mean more punch for youth and quality today. So let’s hear it for Rocky!’
4.15 Aintree (The 2014 Liverpool Grand National): When a young star is born in the National, he’s a tough-guy already placed in a major staying race, a massive galloper who jumps better than the proverbial stag.
And the juiciest bone from the stats of the modern race of modified fences must be that quality is centre table for this feast of a race, as revealed by weights carried of those who had helpings of the prizemoney in the last five years.
In 2013 three of the first four home were set between 10st 11lb and 11st 3lb and in 2012 three out of four between 10-10 and 11-6.
A loose canon won last year off 10st 3lb but, before that, Mon Mome started a run of four consecutive 11st-plus scorers. So expect the winner to come from somewhere between number 4 Triolo d’Alene and 18 Prince De Beauchene.
HANDICAPPING: Balthazar King, Teaforthree and Tidal Bay have been given an allowance by the handicapper. Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Wayward Prince, Burton Port and Our Father are down in the weights.
But hit hard by the handicapper are Triolo D’Alene, Mr Moonshine, Pineau De Re and One In A Milan. They must improve again to stand any chance.
BREEDING: Mon Mome (2009) and Neptune Collonges (2012) have blown out of the water the idea that the French cannot produce a National winner, so don’t dismiss Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Prince De Beauchene, Walkon, Last Time D’Albain, Swing Bill, Raz de Maree, Chance Du Roy and Pineau De Re on that score.
Tony McCoy has swerved Colbert Station in favour of Double Seven, though A P made bad decisions at Cheltenham, rejecting big winners Jezki and More Of That.
NEGATIVES: Too old, too young, too little experience. I’ve listed all the horses in those categories in my ABC guide and the Facts below, and I’ve also blackmarked horses that are running in blinkers, visors, cheekpieces and tongue-ties as announcing their weaknesses. Any form of weakness can be ruthlessly exposed in the National.
QUOTES: ‘I’ve blown his National chance,’ said trainer Nicky Henderson after Triolo D’Alene’s Hennessy win.
Jonjo O’Neill describes Burton Port as ‘very disappointing’, prompting a wind operation, which seemed to work on his second in a veterans’ race, when he was ridden aggressively, given a great deal of work to do, to see if the spark was still there.
Even then ‘one swallow’ doesn’t make a Spring Double winner, says yer man. Meanwhile, David Pipe has not lost faith in Our Father: ‘The trip and ground will suit.’
JUMPING: Monbeg Dude gets behind in his races – not ideal for Aintree – and, despite what you read, his jumping doesn’t improve: the form book says, Welsh National January 2013, ‘a string of errors’; Grimthorpe Chase 2014, ‘jumped sloppily early on.’
Tidal Bay is also likely to sit too far out of his ground and it will be an enormous task to catch up at his age with his weight. Long Run can be clumsy, and has a tendency to ‘nod’ or ‘dip’ on landing which can translate into a sprawl as a horse lands over big fences.
FORM: Triolo d’Alene will be beaten a couple of lengths by Rocky Creek if Hennessy form works out, and some 20 lengths by Walkon if the 2013 Topham Chase result (over these National fences) has any bearing. But will Walkon stay?
Rocky Creek ran a good second to The Giant Bolster when needing the race at Cheltenham in January, which would have landed him among the blanket finish for last month’s Gold Cup, and he ran a cracker in the Hennessy.
What he lacks in experience, he makes up for in strength and agility, and trainer Paul Nicholls has turned the corner in this race; now has the best current record, rivaled by Jonjo O’Neill.
I called Jonjo the shrewdest since Edison patented electricity and he’s been given every chance by the handicapper with Burton Port, who was a 20lb better horse in his heyday but that was two years ago.
It’s an almost identical story for Gold Cup winner of 2011, Long Run, who could give Burton Port 10lb in those days. Now he has to give 15lb.
One of the two – or both – could be revived sufficiently to win this but are we really looking for a sticking-plaster horse? Don’t we want that young galloper currently thriving on his racing, robust and raring to go?
Step forward, as my second choice, Balthazar King, who ran well for a long way last year when his stable was out of form. He has tanked around those cross-country banks courses with exuberance and doesn’t know when he’s beaten. He hasn’t been for four races now, and is clearly a better horse than when he faded last year.
The negative? Like Teaforthree last year –if you want an old fashioned National horse, he’s the one – he might do too much too soon.
Both Balthazar King and Big Shu, outstayed by ‘King’ last time out, have made cross-country their career choices so do not come under the heading ‘saved for the National.’ Nor is this true of Rocky Creek, who had to miss the Gold Cup because of ringworm.
If you had to nominate those who appear to have targeted today’s race, it would be Teaforthree and and The Package whose Cheltenham third was double franked yesterday by the first two, Holywell and Ma Filleule.
Of the lightweights, there are two dour stayers Hawkes Point and Mountainous, who fought out the finish of the Welsh National. But both need soft ground and are worse off with gallant Tidal Bay, who was third and could yet belie his age and finish in the first half-dozen.
PLACE LAYS: Burton Port is a small horse that Nicky Henderson decided would not be a National type. You can’t blame connections for trying with another trainer – the best there is, in Jonjo O’Neill – but cheekpieces were called for when, despite a wind op, he made appalling errors in a veterans’ race. Too much sticky tape on him and several others today.
DAQMAN’S NATIONAL TOP TEN TO FINISH
1 Rocky Creek
2 Balthazar King
3 Teaforthree
4 The Package
5 Prince De Beauchene
6 Walkon
7 Triolo D’Alene
8 Long Run
9 Tidal Bay
10 Big Shu
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 5pts win and place OSCAR HOOF (1.30 Aintree)
BET 9.5pts win HINTERLAND, 8pts win BALDER SUCCESS (2.05 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) AT FISHERS CROSS (2.50 Aintree)
BET 8.5pts win VICTOR HEWGO (3.25 Aintree)
ANTE-POST: 1.1pt win at 28.0 and 1pt win at 56.0 ROCKY CREEK, 1pt win at 39.0 BALTHAZAR KING, and today BET 2.5pts win and place TEAFORTHREE, 1.5pts win and place THE PACKAGE, 2pts place on each BALTHAZAR KING and ROCKY CREEK, and PLACE LAYS: 5pts each BURTON PORT and MONBEG DUDE (all 4.15 Aintree)
LAY 5pts win and place KATGARY (5.10 Aintree)
MORE GRAND NATIONAL FACTS AND FIGURES
AGE OF THE WINNER: 87 horses under the age of nine have run and failed in the last 10 years. Best record: 10-year-olds 4, nine 3, eleven 2. Last winning eight-year-old: Bindaree (2002); last 12-year-old Amberleigh House (2004); last aged 13, Sergeant Murphy (1923)
WEIGHT: In 2013 three of the first four home were set between 10st 11lb and 11st 3lb; in 2012 three out of four between 10-10 and 11-6. From 2009-11, of 27 front finishers, 22 carried 10-11 to 11-10, some 14 of them with 11st or more, though only two with more than 11st 6lb.
CHASE EXPERIENCE: Seven of the last nine winners had raced between 10 and 14 times over fences, which indicates: Teaforthree, Monbeg Dude, Pineau De Re, Burton Port, Triolo D’Alene, Big Shu and Raz Du Maree.
No horse with fewer than 10 starts has won in 40 years: Vesper Bell and Goonyella (8 chases), Hawkes Point and Rocky Creek (7), Our Father and Rose Of The Moon (6) fall short.
COURSE: Pineau De Re (all his wins), Vesper Bell (all), Vintage Star, and Lion De Bearnai prefer right-handed tracks.
The following have got round in races over the National fences before: Across The Bay, Balthazar King, Chance Du Roy, Last Time D’Albain, Mr Moonshine, Rose Of The Moon, Shakalakaboomboom, Swing Bill, Teaforthree, Triolo D’Alene, Walkon.
FORM: The last 10 winners had all raced since February 18. Seven of the last nine had won or finished second over 3m 4f or been placed in the Irish National or the (English) Hennessy Gold Cup.
GOING: The following need soft-heavy ground: Across The Bay, Hawkes Point, Colbert Station, Last Time D’Albain, Mountainous, One In A Milan, Raz De Maree, Vesper Bell.
TRAINERS: Winners of the Grand National with runners today: Donald McCain and Nigel Twiston-Davies two each, plus one each for Sue Smith, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Gordon Elliott, Martin Brassil, Willie Mullins, Kim Bailey and Ted Walsh.
In the ‘new’ National, since 2009, the following top 12 placings were acheived by eight trainers with runners today:
Paul Nicholls 6-3-9-4-5-WON-12; Jonjo O’Neill 7-WON-3-2; Donald McCain 12-8-WON-6; Dessie Hughes 2-5-5; Martin Pipe 10-2-12-10-6; Nigel Twiston-Davies 5-7-11; Willie Mullins 11-9-6-6-11; Gordon Elliott 8-8-10. Nicky Henderson is 0-33 in his career.
JOCKEYS: In that time, since 2009, top jockeys who reached the first four riding today are: A P McCoy (WON and 3rd), Ryan Mania (WON), Paul Moloney (4, 3, 4, 4, 2); Sam Waley-Cohen (2, 4), and one each in a place Denis O’Regan, Richie McLernon, Nick Scholfield, Barry Geraghty and Katie Walsh.
HEADGEAR: Only two horses have worn blinkers or visors to win the National since 1976. A total of 45 horses from the first six in the last decade wore no headgear or special aids (75%).
There were two seconds, one fourth, a fifth and a sixth wearing tongue-ties; two seconds in cheekpieces; a winner and second in blinkers.
Horses with headgear and aids today are: Long Run, Quito De La Roque, Colbert Station, Walkon, Across The Bay, Wayward Prince, Double Seven, Battle Group, Big Shu, Burton Port, Our Father, Chance Du Roy, The Package, Raz De Maree (first time visors), Twirling Magnet, The Package, Rose Of The Moon, Shakalakaboomboom.
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