IT’S THREE BANKERS IN A ROW: Dodging the long-odds-on shots during the week, Daqman finally delivered a Punchestown banker yesterday, with Nichols Canyon (WON 4-5), his third in a row:
WON 10-11 Birdman
WON 10-11 Nabatean
WON 4-5 Nichols Canyon
7-0 SWEEP UP OF BIG RACES: Nichols Canyon put Daqman a thumping 7-0 up in Punchestown week over his trade-paper rival, Pricewise, to bring the scores to 21-4 since the start of the English Flat season, and 162-77 overall.
ABC GUIDE TO THE GUINEAS: Today is 2,000 Guineas Day at Newmarket, Daqman leading off with his ABC Guide. He clashes with Pricewise again in the 2.00 and 3.45 Newmarket, the 4.25 Punchestown and the 11.34 Churchill Downs (the Kentucky Derby).
FOLLOW THE DAQMAN HEADLINES: Followers of the Daqman headlined selections have had a great week with:
He’s Some Article At 15.5 Offers On Betdaq (WON 10-1)
Felix Yonger To Relish Stiff Punchestown 2m (WON 5-1)
Cossack’s Big Chance To Hit The Big Time (WON 5-2)
Nichols Canyon Champion Novice Banker (WON 4-5)
RIVER CARD IS THE ACE OF THE GUINEAS PACK
3.45 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) It’s a duel of Europe’s best stables. I see the 2,000 Guineas between Aidan O’Brien and Andre Fabre. Team Hannon has its own private duel with Ivawood likely to reverse Greenham form with Estidhkaar while not being quite good enough.
The main protagonists must be Gleneagles and Ol’ Man River for O’Brien, Territories for Fabre. Therein lies my one-two.
But Gleneagles was exposed as a two-year-old, well above par, the early birdie that caught the eye, but no way the eagle, as he swerved and was disqualified in his final test.
Two lightly-raced sorts – Dutch Connection and Territories – both got close to him, when both needed better ground and have the potential to improve past him with more racing experience.
But, on breeding and after just two superb public performances – leaving stones of potential for improvement – I take Ol’ Man River for Ballydoyle to just keep rolling along.
Snag with the race is the moving of the stalls to the stands’ rail. It seemingly allows Gleneagles and Territories to tuck in but throws Ol’ Man River, Estidhkaar and Ivawood wide.. Or will the low-drawn colts go over to the far side?
A: Placed at Group level (90%)
B: Already won at 7f or 1m (90%)
C: Raced between 2 and 5 times (90%)
D: Sire placed European Guineas, stamina index 9.0+ (80%)
E: Rated 115 + (some notional)
F: Has raced since last July (100%)
ABCEF Elm Park (DOUBTFUL if ground too firm) Andrew Balding has ‘never had a two-year-old so good’, which is reminiscent of his father’s verdict on Mill Reef at this stage but this one is hardly bred for fame (he’s his sire’s only Group 1 winner and his dam is half-sister to hurdlers).
But Elm Park was the first colt in 32 years to complete the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy double, separate paths to glory for three of the last 10 Guineas winners.
The Royal Lodge runner-up was about the same distance behind Kool Kompany in the Craven, but Elm Park has not prepped for this. Theoretically well drawn in 14. But too-firm ground would bring about his withdrawal late in the afternoon.
ABCF Celestial Path By a 2,000 Guineas winner and there’s also a Guineas success on the dam’s side. Going too soft when third to Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy. Not from a Classic-winning stable. Drawn wide in stall 1.
ABCF Dutch Connection Big colt who had not filled out last season, so excellent effort when third to Gleneagles in the National Stakes at The Curragh, a race which has produced two Guineas winners in the decade. Sire gets more speed than stamina but dam related to stayer. Stall 13 could be a handy sit.
ABCF Home Of The Brave Free Handicap winner said to be a ‘bit fragile’. Second horse home had been 19 lengths behind Elm Park last season. Stall 17.
ABCF Moheet Lightly-raced son of Derby winner High Chaparral suffered from lack of pace when third to stablemate Kool Kompany in the Craven Stakes, still running green. Stall 15 looks handy but maybe get swamped unless he gets an earlier gear change.
ABCF Ol’ Man River Sees return to major-race riding of Joseph O’Brien, who is two out of two on him, including key Beresford Stakes. Good mover by Montjeu, sire of Derby winners, out of English and Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Finsceal Beo.
A wide draw in stall 2 may actually help, as he looks a 10-furlong colt so needs plenty of use making of him.
ABCF Territories By the sire of Irish Guineas winner Kingman, hampered third to Gleneagles in the Grand Criterium but won key French race, Prix De Fontainebleau, last month. Next four home had all won their prep races. Drawn on the stands’ rail in 19.
ABDF Ride Like The Wind When I started this ABC, Make Believe, top on all the stats, was still in the race, but Ride Like The Wind (stall 3) pipped him on very soft ground in the Prix Djebel – won by a Guineas winner in the decade – and Andre Fabre switched from Make Believ to Territories (supplemented)..
ABEF Gleneagles Would have been unbeaten since his maiden, but five-timer bid failed when disqualified for interference after the Grand Criterium. Futurity and National Stakes, which he won, have had three successes in Guineas this decade.
Galileo doesn’t usual get Guineas winners but Gleneagles is a full brother to the Irish 1,000 heroine, Marvellous, and the dam is a sister to Giants Causeway (1m St James Palace Stakes to 1m 2f Champion Stakes). Stall 16.
ABEF Estidhkaar Champagne Stakes winner beaten in the Dewhurst but finished in front of Ivawood when second in the Greenham, seemingly needing today’s extra furlong, though pedigree for speed. Drawn 6.
ABF Kool Kompany Well-exposed (10 races) winner of the Railway Stakes and Robert Papin as a two-year-old. Stole a less-than-pacey Craven but stuck on well. Stall 7.
ACEF Ivawood Seemingly needed the run when only third in the Greenham (Estidhkaar second) and now the choice of Richard Hughes. Stall 5.
ACF Room Key Goes well fresh but only fifth of six to Estidhkaar in the Champagne Stakes. Drawn eight.
AF Cappella Sansevero Coventry runner-up but beaten in the Railway, Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes. Exposed.
BCF Hail The Hero Galileo colt, outsider when sixth of seven in the Craven. Has to find 20lb on the ratings.
BCF Intilaaq Easy maiden winner last month but also 20lb behind.
CF Code Red, Glenalmond and F Bossy Guest
DAQMAN’S 2,000 GUINEAS ORDER-IN:
1 Ol’ Man River (9.0 on BETDAQ), 2 Territories (7.4), 3 Gleneagles (saver), 4 Dutch Connection (21.0), 5 Ivawood (13.0).
GET ONLINE AND GRAB 13.5 IN PALACE HOUSE
2.00 Newmarket A tricky start for punters but four-year-olds are six out of eight, and we are entitled to assume that the lightly-raced pair, All Set To Go (huge at 19.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) and the potential Stoute improver Top Tug (5.6), have the scope.
Frankie Dettori is riding acey-deucy at the moment, with nine winners and five seconds in a fortnight, and All Set To Go was third in the Group-3 Ballysax at this time last year.
2.30 Newmarket (Palace House Stakes) Kevin Ryan has already beaten Wathable with Astaire this season and he reckons the Acclamation filly, Online Alexander, the finished article now.
I could get 13.5 in the orange (3.45 in the green, three chances of a place from nine) Online Alexander, with Watchable still the danger but easy to back on firmish ground over a furlong shorter than his debut second to Astaire.
3.05 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) Both this race (Telescope) and the Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown (Annie Power) have odds-on favourites which I’ll put in my Daq Multiples for leverage with some better offers.
3.45 Newmarket (2,000 Guineas) SEE ABOVE
PILE ON COAL FOR A PUNCHESTOWN STEAMER
3.10 Punchestown (Ladbrokes Ireland Handicap Chase) Irish Grand National winner Thunder And Roses heads the handicap, but Devon Marathon winner Adrenalin Flight, Porterstown Chase scorers on this course Embracing Change and Thelobstercatcher, and Eider Chase heroes, Milborough and Portrait King, are all certain to get the trip.
But the one I’m standing by is Sizing Coal, third in the Irish National (better off now with the winner). Only heavy ground kept him out of the first four just once in his entire career: 10.0 offers on BETDAQ.
4.25 Punchestown (Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle) Those who are on Gleneagles will be doubling up on Prussian Eagle but he looks exposed as a bridesmaid, beaten by both Business Sivola and Petite Parisienne.
Lots of collateral form, then, pointing to Qualando and Fiscal Focus, if he can reproduce his December win, but he’s swerved all the big festivals until now, as if something has been wrong.
Qualando won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, while Stars Over The Sea (won’t settle) and Pain Au Chocolat were behind in the Triumph.
My huge BETDAQ ante-post overs enabled me to trade Pain Au Chocolat that day and he’s among six horses here (yes, six) rated 137, 138 and 139. I’ll take his 12.0, last-chance saloon in company which still has all to play for.
BEYER KEY TO MATERIALITY IN KENTUCKY DERBY
11.34 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) American Pharoah has a Frankel type following after sauntering to a four-timer in small fields, but the same Bob Baffert yard has six-hit scorer, Dortmund.
Easy, then, for Baffert, who has already won the race thtee times? No, says the Washington Post: it claims that colts from the Storm Cat strain are 0-44, and that would also eliminate Carpe Diem and Firing Line, isolating Mike De Kock’s UAE Derby winner, Mubtaahij, among those at the front of the market.
The real Frankel of this race could be Materiality, who would break all records (as he never ran as a two-year-old) and has been spurned by jockey Velazquez, who prefers Carpe Diem.
Florida Derby winner Materiality earned the best speed figures from Andy Beyer, and he also earned the gasps of the crowd as he simply refused to allow anything to pass him: 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning for a solid trade chance.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except Multiples)
BET 6.5pts win TOP TUG and 1.6pts win and place ALL SET TO GO (2.00 Newmarket)
BET 2.4pts win and place ONLINE ALEXANDER (2.30 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win (nap) SIZING COAL (3.10 Punchestown)
BET 4.6pts win TERRITORIES, 3.75pts win OL’ MAN RIVER and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) GLEANEAGLES (3.45 Newmarket)
BET 2.7pts win PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (4.25 Punchestown)
BET 2.7pts win MATERIALITY (11.34 Churchill Downs)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca ONLINE ALEXANDER (2.30 Newmarket), TELESCOPE (3.05 Newmarket), SIZING COAL (3.10 Punchestown), ANNIE POWER (3.50 Punchestown)
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