‘SUPER’ BET PART OF TWO WINNING DAQMAN DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman, who finished in front on Thursday with Carrigmorna King (WON 4-1), had two more winners yesterday – Super Villan (WON 3-1) and Dunraven Storm (WON 3-1) – for a profit of 38 points from back-to-back winning days.
GORGEHOUS GAMBLE TO HIT THE BULL: Today Daqman launches his Bull’s-Eye Bet, a tilt at the handicaps, in which he tries to win 50 points per bet. The first one is trained by the ‘Gorgehous’ in-form Venetia Williams.
SORTING THE MEN FROM THE BOYS: They’re calling it the mini Gold Cup but the BF Lancashire Chase at Haydock today lacks distance and the Cheltenham hill which sorts the men from the boys. Here are the Daqman headlines for BETDAQ best morning offers on the feature races:
* Daqman had 12.5 Al Ferof for the King George
* Master Of The Sea (8.8) has his ground
* Gevrey Chambertin (9.0) is still only five
* Zarkandar 3.0 in Ascot Hurdle is wrong
* 4.0 Silviniaco Conti is a fair exchange
1.15 Haydock and 3.15 Ascot Venetia Williams has had a fantastic autumn and her current form still standing is 112311. Her placing of horses is her forte, and that applies no more so than today.
Gorgehous Lliege (5.8 this morning on BETDAQ), a tough as teak slogger – twice a winner up the Towcester hill – could have them for heart and stamina off his light weight (1.15 Haydock) and is my first Bull’s-Eye Bet, in which I attack the handicaps with win-50 stakes.
Liam Treadwell gets the mount, while Aidan Coleman is at Ascot for the same stable’s progressive Drumshambo, offered at 4.5 in the 3.15, so a three-point stakes-saver to break even on the Williams’ bull’s-eye tilt. Of course, both could win so I’ll ‘leave a pound’ on the double.
1.50 and 3.25 Haydock As well as launching my Bull’s-Eye Bet, I promised in my jumps preview to go head-to-head with Pricewise in all his tipping races.
His bet, Special Catch (1.50), is lurking ominously off a light weight in the handicap hurdle but has yet to make his mark outside novice company and I would worry that the money was down first time out, as last year, but this time he failed.
The Pipes’ Home Run and the McManus’ More Of That are both a year younger and unexposed, while Clondaw Kaempfer looked good until his injury and may bouncr back, and Blue Fashion makes an eagerly-awaited British debut for Nicky Henderson.
More Of That is what McCoy is at Haydock for, so I took the 4.3 this morning while, in the handicap chase (3.35), yet another value race in the BETDAQ orange this morning (105%), I took 7.2 Sydney Paget, well regarded, likes today’s ground and likely to be progressive this season.
The Pricewise tip, Relax, still has plenty of weight. Gas Line Boy may be found out by his penalty. Mac Aeda is a once-a-year horse these days, and The Rainbow Hunter may be a bigger danger. Now here are my big-race verdicts:
2.05 Ascot (Amlin Chase) The Graded races at Cheltenham last weekend and Ascot today are rich in prizemoney but steeped in poverty for number of runners and, therefore, general betting interest.
A course executive that is ‘unfazed’ about the small fields (quote unquote Racing Post) clearly has little or no concern for today’s punting public.
There may be some visual pleasure left in watching Al Ferof try to stop Captain Chris doing a Master Minded – back to back wins – but, as a betting race, the Amlin is weaker than for the Master Minded double: he had five opponents each time.
Al Ferof is favourite this morning and you bet fair on BETDAQ (104% total offers in the orange) but it’s one of those partisan punting races. Are you an Al Ferof man? Or a Captain Chris nut?
This is what I said in my horses-to-follow list: ‘After five straight wins, hurdles and chases, as a novice, Al Ferof was beaten in the VC Chase, the Arkle and the Manifesto but bounced back in the PP Gold Cup at this time last year.
‘Cursed by minor leg ailments, he was put away. I envisage him going for quick success to see if he’s back in good enough heart for a King George bid, offered 12.5 on BETDAQ as I write’.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Al Ferof is now 10.5 (this morning) so I hope you got on for Kempton that day. Captain Chris is out to 19.0, which may be the evidence you need for this afternoon, too.
2.25 Haydock (‘Fixed’ Brush Hurdle) Seven is the maximum age for winners of this, and the older horses have a trio of potential front-runners in Lie Forrit, Ely Brown and Knock A Hand.
That should nicely set it up for the youngsters, with Gullinbursti my first ‘delete’. He hasn’t won a hurdle in two years since given a rating of 130 as a novice but his chase form seems to have dragged his ‘sticks’ rating along with it, so that he runs off 143 here.
As a Grade-2 winner, Two Rockers – goes well fresh – did better than Gullinbursti as a novice, including an easy win over today’s course and distance, but has also paid for it with a 12lb rise.
Master Of The Sea won a decent handicap at Newbury and didn’t have his ground (needs it soft like today) at Cheltenham and Aintree (Gevrey Chambertin behind).
Gevrey Chambertin has the advantage of having already won over the Haydock Brush hurdles. That was at 2m 4f but, since he’s by Dom Alco, should have grown into today’s trip (he’s only five), with the stable sensational at Cheltenham last weekend.
Obviously, last year’s winner of this, Trustan Times, knows all about the Brush jumps but, unlike last year, failed in his prep racve.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Master Of The Sea is the out-and-out stayer among these and he has the ground he needs: 8.8 this morning in a punter-friendly 104% orange.
I think we might see a ‘growed-up‘ Gevrey Chambertin this year and, with Team Pipe flying, his 9.0 was also tempting, and I could afford two against the field in the 104% ‘book.’
2.40 Ascot (Ascot Hurdle) Another let-down by race planners, with only four runners for the second year running. Surely, it doesn’t take much in the way of brains and leadership to rethink the programme for maximum entertainment.
Someone coming fresh to racing in the two weekends of Cheltenham and Ascot would draw the simple conclusion: you need more good handicaps. Conditions racing in a pattern is not as essential over jumps as it is on the Flat.
This Ascot Hurdle seems, like the Amlin, to be a match race: partisan punters must now line up behind the unbeaten Annie Power or the Aintree Hurdle winner, Zarkandar, who has never lost a race right-handed or on his return.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Annie Power is the only one to have beaten the equally prolific Glens Melody this year, while Zarkandar’s form when fresh is 111 and he’s raced with the best.
There is still an ‘if’ about whether Annie Power (1.67 this morning) is top of the tree and the 3.0 Zarkandar is wrong in a seeming two-horse race, despite the difference in weight, which may not count for so much in the small, tactical field.
3.00 Haydock (BF Lancashire Chase) A parade of giants of the jumps game, with the winners of the Gold Cup (Bobs Worth and Long Run), the Ryanair (Cue Card), the Down Royal Champion Chase (Roi Du Mee), the Murphy (The Giant Bolster), the Sandown Gold Cup and the Lexus (Tidal Bay) and the top novices Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti, who emerged from that group to win this race last year and threaten Bobs Worth in the Gold Cup until he, uncharacteristically, spilled over.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: A near-level playing field for the punter with a 101% list in the orange on BETDAQ this morning, though the Total SP has been 110% for this race in two of the last three years.
These fair exchanges make Silviniaco Conti’s 4.0 even better value than it appears on the page. He can win back to back as Kauto Star did for his stable in 2005-6.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each unless otherwise stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 10.4pts win GORGEHOUS LLIEGE (1.15 Haydock) and 3pts win (stakes saver) DRUMSHAMBO (3.15 Ascot) plus a 1pt win double the two.
BET 9pts win MORE OF THAT (1.50 Haydock)
BET 4.2pts win MASTER OF THE SEA and 3.76pts win GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (2.25 Haydock)
BET 15pts win ZARKANDAR (2.40 Ascot)
BET 10pts win (nap) SILVINIACO CONTI (3.00 Haydock)
BET 4.8pts win SYDNEY PAGET (3.35 Haydock)
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