8-1 LAYERS CAN’T FORGIVE DAQMAN WINNER: Daqman, who had a big-odds winner with Beacon Lady (WON 9-1) in the Brighton Challenge on Thursday, struck again yesterday when he found form lines to suggest that Forgive (WON 8-1) would beat Magic Of Reality. It did. They were first and second.
ANOTHER BIG-RACE ONE-TWO THIS WEEKEND? Daqman has a knack of landing the one-two at weekends, so look out today and in tomorrow’s big French race. He’s hit two big ones on each of the last two weekends. Here they are:
Deauville (Prix Maurice De Gheest, August 4): 1 MOONLIGHT CLOUD (WON 6-5)
2 Lethal Force (2nd 16-5)
Deauville (Prix De Reux, August 4):
1 TRES BLUE (WON 13-5)
2 Montclair (2nd 11-1)
Deauville (Prix Rothschild, July 28):
1 ELUSIVE KATE (nap, WON 19-10)
2 Duntle (2nd 7-1)
Ascot (King George, July 27):
1 NOVELLIST (WON 13-2)
2 Trading Leather (2nd 9-2)
FIVE BANKERS AND FOUR LAYS IN A ROW: He completed five bankers in a row at Goodwood and he’s currently on a sequence with his lays, four in a row with Mars (2nd 8-11), Cirrus Des Aigles (4th 6-4), Dance And Dance (place lay, unplaced) and Secret Gesture (lay, 2nd 5-4)
SHERGAR CUP
12.55 Ascot (Mile) This is as tight a handicap as you’ll see. Top and tail it, and there’s 4lb separating 10 horses! This more or less level playing-field gives Famous Poet a big shout, dropped back from the pattern.
He was twice the ‘moral’, a close second giving weight to the winner and his style suits burn-em-up Brazilian Joao Moreira, the Singapore champion.
Roserrow, badly drawn last time out, beat Danchai at Sandown before that one won the John Smiths Cup at York. Jockey Gary Stevens did a Lester Piggott this year, coming out of retirement at 50 to win the Preakness.
Daqman’s one-two: Famous Poet and Roserrow
1.30 Ascot (Stayers) Brockwell, Homeric and Highland Castle all have sufficient pull in the weights to turn around Goodwood and Ascot form with Broxbourne. But no-one’s told Broxbourne.
He’s so in love with racing and such a strong galloper he could repel boarders and fight them all off again, as long as he gets a strong pace to bring his stamina into play.
It’s a toss of a coin between those three breathing down Broxbourne’s neck – I’ll take Brockwell – and I can’t have Mutual Regard, who looks a bit out of his depth in a class 2, raised 8lb for a class-4 win at Ffos Las
Daqman’s one-two: Broxbourne and Brockwell
2.05 Ascot (Dash) Older horses don’t win this – not a one! – which takes out Racy, Jiroft, Judge ‘n Jury, Zero Money and Doctor Parkes and left me betting 100-53 on BETDAQ this morning in an already punter-friendly 106% orange. Get in there Daqman!
My one-two just has to be Ahtoug and Steps, who were third and fourth in the race last year, and second and fourth – t’other way round – over the same CD in a big-field cavalry charge a fortnight ago.
Daqman’s one-two: Ahtoug and Steps
2.40 Ascot (Classic) This is Mark Johnston v The Rest of The World and I take him to land a one-two. The Scottish Yorkshireman has five runners, yet Charlie Appleby’s Chesterfield is favourite. I may want a lay on Chesterfield! He’s been close up to useful horses but beaten ‘nothing’ behind.
When Mark Johnston won this race, he did it with a 16-1 shot (2010) which had run down the field at Glorious Goodwood, just like Royal Skies.
I remembered him being strongly fancied for the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, and I took 12.0 on BETFDAQ this morning. Stablemate Broughton is the only runner in the race to have won a handicap above class 4.
Daqman’s one-two: Royal Skies and Broughton.
3.15 Ascot (Cup) By the same token, Communicator, Scatter Dice and Star Lahib are class-2 winners dropped to a class-3 handicap here, Star Lahib having beaten the other two 10 lengths and 25 at Haydock in June.
He then came out too quickly – only a week later – at York but, after a month off, should be another Shergar-day winner for Mark Johnston.
A similar thing happened with Ustura, who likes his races spaced apart. He went to Kempton and flopped as favourite soon after his third in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot and should be back to form now after a five-week break.
Daqman’s one-two: Star Lahib and Ustura
3.50 Ascot (Sprint) It’s all over bar the shouting, say punters who have Noble Deed well clear (8.2 bar one on BETDAQ offers this morning) and maybe have a coincidence double with Noble Mission at Haydock.
Barracuda Boy is entitled to give him a race on his third at York in June but I hope Purcell gets in. He will love the strong pace.
Daqman’s one-two: Noble Deed and Purcell (if abs Barracuda Boy)
2.20 Haydock Labarinto and last year’s winner, Opinion, have two things in common: both are trained by Sir Michael Stoute and both were losers at the Glorious Goodwood meeting, coming straight on to this.
The difference is that Opinion was beaten out of sight, whereas Labarinto ran his best race of a light season, the ‘moral’ when a close third to the smart Viewpoint, giving the winner 8lb.
That’s cost him a pound rise and he has to give weight in this dramatic handicap to a strong cast, including Danchai, Chancery and Sennockian Star.
Danchai has been hard hit by the handicapper, so that he has his work cut out to confirm York placings with Tres Coronas and Awake My Soul, not to mention Angel Gabrial, who was impeded in sixth.
Chancery has been tonked even harder, up 13lb, also for a win at York, but in class 4. That means he has to leap two grades for this class-2 race.
Sennockian Star climbed that ladder but he’s only three and entitled to improve (officially by 15lb in the last month), and he’s been first or second in 10 of 11 races this year.
If lines through Viewpoint can be believed – he beat that one at Ascot last time out – Sennockian Star has nothing to fear from Labarinto and, indeed, three-year-olds are 4-1 up in the last five runnings of this race.
A second collateral – through Nabucco – has him comfortably ahead of Danchai. Niceofyoutotellme ran no sort of race behind Danchai at York but was joint favourite and earlier beat Nabucco at Newmarket. He’s got this season’s touch of magic, the hood, on today.
Daqman’s one-two: Sennockian Star and Niceofyoutotellme.
2.55 Haydock (Rose Of Lancaster Stakes) City Style has had his day and Noble Mission fights his jockey in a challenge rather than fight the other horse. Yet they are second and third favourite here behind Telescope.
David Livingston is one of those short-of-pace horses who could place in a pattern race but fail in a handicap but two factors could bring about a change in him this afternoon. Rain. And Johnny Murtagh.
Yes Hughsie’s had a great season, but Murtagh has been riding as close to Lester Piggott as I can recall, Mick Kinane apart.
Telescope, who might have won a Derby had he got going in time, is a banker but, if the heavens open, it’s a godsend to David Livingston and this morning’s 12.5 on BETDAQ will look like a manna.
Daqman’s one-two: Telescope and David Livingston
Selections each to win 30 points. A VALUE BET is one in a race of 109% total percentage probability or lower. GOLD VALUE is when Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.4pts win FAMOUS POET and 3.6pts win ROSERROW (12.55 Ascot)
VALUE BET: 6.5pts win BROXBOURNE and 4.6pts win BROCKWELL (1.30 Ascot)
VALUE BET: 7.5pts win STEPS and 5.5pts win AHTOUG (2.05 Ascot)
PLACE LAY: 10pts CHANCERY, and VALUE BET: 6pts win SENNOCKIAN STAR and 2.6pts win NICEOFYOUTOTELLME (2.20 Haydock)
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.5pts win BROUGHTON and 2.8pts win ROYAL SKIES (2.40 Ascot)
VALUE BET: BANKER 20pts win (nap) TELESCOPE and 2.6pts win (for a rainy day) DAVID LIVINGSTON (2.55 Haydock)
VALUE BET 5.6pts win on each STAR LAHIB and USTURA (3.15 Ascot)
BET 10pts win NOBLE DEED, 3.8pts win BARRACUDA BOY, 2.3pts win PURCELL (3.50 Ascot)
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