DAQMAN STILL BUZZING: MORE THAN 117 POINTS UP: Seven-lengths Ascot winner Buzz (WON 1-1) yesterday gave Daqman winning nap number seven from the first 13 days of the jumps season. He goes into his Saturday analysis up more than 117 points from his main staking plans:
PROFIT + 41.25 Daqman v Pricewise (10-point stakes)
PROFIT + 38.52 Daily naps (10-point stakes)
PROFIT + 37.80 Bull’s-eye bets (stakes to win 50)
IT’S BETDAQ-VALUE SATURDAY WITH ALL TO PLAY FOR: Daqman leads Pricewise 5-2 as they clash today in the 1.50 and 2.25 Haydock and the 2.05 and 3.17 Ascot. Headlines for your BETDAQ value bets:
🔹 ABA! WINNER TAKES IT ALL..
🔹 POWER PLOTTED UP FOR HIT
🔹 STEEL LOOKS THE REAL THING
🔹 JAM IN RARE TREBLE SPREAD
🔹 BAILEY SUCCESS STILL FLOWS
ABA! WINNER TAKES IT ALL..
⭕ 12.40 Haydock A stamina test (almost 3m 2f) that’s thrown up some fair stayers in Vieux Lion Rouge, Vintage Clouds and one we’ll hear more of, Fortune Cookie early-bird Crievehill.
Bob Mahler is up 4lb on his third in this race a year ago before winning the Edinburgh National and running third in the Kim Muir. Against him is a poor run back in October.
Deise Aba was fifth in the Kim Muir after scoring at Sandown in a stronger race than today’s, and 6.9 on the BETDAQ Betting Exchange looked tasty this morning.
The runner-up in that Sandown race, Cloudy Glen, had slammed Secret Reprieve here at Haydock over 2m 4f after that one had run up to hat-trick winning Newtide at levels.
⭕ 1.15 Haydock The talented Master Tommytucker is down and out or top of the podium. No half measure as a faller three times in eight races with four wins amongst them!
Brought back in slow races of very few runners, but still showed his quirkiness at Huntingdon last month, ducking to one side when clear. Paul Nicholls won this six years running (2012-17) with quality horses, including Politologue (2016 ).
Deyrann de Carjac, who would prefer better ground, has his first run back after a knee operation.
Out of the first three only once, still standing, in 10 races over the last two years, Dashel Drasher comes back here after a comfortable victory on the course over a couple of decent sorts but has never won after a break, and Jeremy Scott is 1-19.
POWER PLOTTED UP FOR HIT
⭕ 1.50 Haydock Six last-time winners from top to bottom of the handicap ladder, from 10st 4lb (Kaizer) to 11st 12lb (Kid Commando) among 15 runners. How to sort some value.
Well, the two seven-year-olds, two aged eight and three now nine would not normally win this over the younger generation, and 11st 9lb has been the ceiling for weight carried in the decade.
Of Olly Murphy’s last 45 runners, only one jumper has won, and Nicky Henderson’s Fix Sun was a long way in rear on his return at Cheltenham, and has had a second wind op since. Will that fix the problem?
Our Power, sixth, 14 lengths in front of Fix Sun at Cheltenham, was not fully wound up for that, not seen since winning a 20-runner race at Kempton in March.
He is nicely plotted for this but is a stayer who needs some pace on (or might make it himself). BETDAQ 9.8.
STEEL LOOKS THE REAL THING
⭕ 2.05 Ascot I put Real Steel in as an early-bird Fortune Cookie on the strength of glowing reports from Ditcheat, and he’s a winner before after a long lay-off.
Real Steel has already stepped up to this Grade 2 level at Thurles in January for Willie Mullins and was then disputing third in the Gold Cup at the second last fence, looking like the winner before fading.
Now trained by Paul Nicholls who does not rule out a crack at the King George, though Clan Des Obeaux can bag his hat-trick bid for that after the Lancashire Chase today. So I reckon the Ryanair as Steel’s real target.
Imperial Aura has improved a stone at Listed level and deserves this crack at a Graded contest but I can’t have Black Corton. Top novice he may have been but 1-15 since makes him a nearly horse.
Yes, he’s getting weight all round but giving two and three years away is far more important at this level at this time of year.
JAM IN RARE TREBLE SPREAD
⭕ 2.25 Haydock The Jam Man (BETDAQ 7.2) followed up a Flat-handicap win by absolutely running away with the Troytown Chase. The handicapper lumped an extra 21lb on his back.
But here he is over hurdles now, a third consecutive change of discipline, because he can carry 12lb less, including his amateur-rider’s allowance: Maxine O’Sullivans is four out of five in England.
It’s another race rarely won by horses older than five or six, so we need an alternative. Dolphin Square must have stunned the Pipes, just failing to give 19lb to Dell’Arca in the Pertemps qualifier at Newbury.
But Third Wind, fifth off 11st 12lb, was giving even more weight and the one-time EBF Final winner comes out of the race perfectly prepped for today. BETDAQ 8.2
Ask Dillon was the moral giving a stone and more to winner and third when second at Sandown in a Grade 3 in February (heavy).
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (Lancashire Chase) Bristol de Mai is 112 in this race, last year finishing second to Lostintranslation, who was completing a hat-trick and went on to be third in the Gold Cup. Bristol de Mai and Clan Des Obeaux finished behind.
Clan Des Obeaux had won the King George for a second time, and Paul Nicholls thinks he will be an even better horse this season.
Lostinttranslation had had a run when he won this last year, and his stable has not been at peak this autumn. Bristol De Mai is not the force he was and Clan des Obeaux can get this trip now as a stronger horse.
BAILEY SUCCESS STILL FLOWS
⭕ 3.17 Ascot (Coral Hurst Park Chase) A tough one to call, not least because Bryony Frost excels on front-runners and Abbey Magic is getting weight from most.
She’s won four out of five for Henry de Bromhead, her only defeat being by a stablemate. The question mark today is whether this good-ground mare can jump as fluently on a soft surface. Her novice win at Galway says she can.
First Flow landed a treble in the Spring and is unlikely to lack for fitness, with Kim Bailey having a great year. The more rain the better.
Magic Saint has a 7lb penalty for winning at Cheltenham eight days ago, and Bryan Carver has lost some of his claim since.
Saint’s 2m form after a wind op is two from two on good to soft, not soft, ground though, as an ex-French, he was used to Auteuil in the mud.
Stablemate Capeland is up 7lb on last year’s winning mark in this race, and has shown nothing since.
One point separates four horses (4.9 to 5.9) in the BETDAQ exchange market as I write, so I’m down a Pricewise rabbit-hole. He says Capeland. I’ll try First Flow at the weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.40 Haydock (win 30, nap)
BET 5pts win DEISE ABA
1.50 Haydock (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win OUR POWER
2.05 Ascot
FORTUNE COOKIE (early bird)
BET 10pts to win REAL STEEL
2.25 Haydock (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 8pts win THE JAM MAN
BULL’S-EYE BET: 7pts win THIRD WIND
3.17 Ascot (win 20)
BET 4pts win FIRST FLOW
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