TOO LATE FOR 50-1 SHOT SO DAQMAN’S STILL ON 998: ‘The rabbit’s out of the hat’, says Daqman, after his ‘hidden horse’, Pierre Lapin (4th 50-1 and 90.0 in running), finished fast at the Curragh yesterday, beaten less than two lengths: ‘he’s exposed now, and won’t be that price again’. Another win-50 bet was second, so no score in his challenge to Pricewise, with Daqman on 998 winners overall. Sense Of Duty (WON 15-8) maintained his winner a day.
GUINEAS AT HOME BUT MULLINS WANTS FRENCH GOLD: Today and tomorrow, the Irish Guineas, are part of a glut of 11 meetings, plus Willie Mullins’ bid to win the French champion hurdle at Auteuil today (£132,353), with Klassical Dream, Kemboy and Tornado Flyer, and tomorrow’s chase equivalent (£310,084) with Al Boum Photo and Franco De Port.
BUCKING THE GUINEAS TREND
⭕ 3.20 The Curragh (Irish 2,000 Guineas) FORM and RATINGS: see Wednesday.
I’ve just been watching Kingman win the 2014 Irish Guineas from the one stall.
Dropped in on the rail, with James Doyle allowing him to be shuffled back; then, when they moved across the course at the elbow, he would be on the outside to deliver his challenge around the pack.
Mac Swiney, also drawn one, did it differently in the 100th Irish Guineas last year, pushed along to make all, Rory Cleary taking him on a tighter course around the elbow and finishing down the centre of the track.
What will Wlliam Buick do on Native Trail, after his Newmarket second, coming with a long run down one side? He struck the front but had no gear change to resist Coroebus as he went by in the final furlong down the middle.
Native Trail is a galloper who doesn’t do anything quickly, so he needs a good pace on, and it’s hard to see where that pace comes from unless Buick makes it.
When Atomic Jones beat Stone Age to become Leopardstown Champion Juvenile in September, he, too, came from the back and won a battle to the line.
Atomic Jones should come forward from his Derby-trial fourth (needed the race, not much room, kept on), but Native Trail may also find there’s some finish in Buckaroo and Ivy League, both drawn close to him.
Buckaroo also beat Stone Age, albeit in an early Galway maiden last July, but he tends to be slowly away and that’s why he was short of room behind Atomic Jones and Stone Age in the Champions Juvenile, and fourth when Stone Age was second in the Criterium de Saint Cloud.
Just when he seemed exposed, he quickened clear in the Tetrarch Stakes (1m) here at the Curragh three weeks back and, though a 10-furlong or even a Derby horse on breeding, his natural speed has prompted connections to take the favourite on here.
Ivy League: I don’t like any form of headgear on a Classic contender, but today’s tongue-tie may be the answer to why Ivy League hit a flat spot but quickened in the closing stages when he split two older horses in the Group-3 Amethyst.
So it is that the top four are eye-balling each other in gates 1 to 4 (where seven out of the last 10 winners came from), fearing a walk from the stalls.
For punters, it’s BETDAQ value to the rescue, with a 104% overround, allowing bets of 5.9 Buckaroo and 24.0 Ivy League (13.5 e.w.) to combine and give us an odds-against chance against a long-odds-on Native Trail, with two running for us instead of one and a bit to spare for a brave Lays Logic on the favourite.
FORGE FANCIED IN TWO-MILER
⭕ 1.45 Goodwood Gate 9 is a worry for backers of Bosh; 70% of winners come from the low half of the draw, and you may need one of those Jamie Spencer kicks through a gap.
Strong-travelling Newbury nursery winner over 6f on soft, Gisburn is stepped up a furlong, and track and trip from stall 4 look right up his street. BETDAQ 6.9.
⭕ 2.00 Haydock After Prospero on Thursday, we should play Miranda in this one. Her NH rating (145) as a Grade-2 mares’ hurdle winner, suggests that she is thrown in here in her first Flat race over 2m off a mark of 91. Big at 11.0 BETDAQ offers this morning.
Bandinelli has won four of five starts, turf and AW, and improved almost a stone since July, beating 103-rated Sleeping Lion at Kempton over 2m.
But Goobinator (BETDAQ 9.1) won over the Haydock CD after a break last summer and was fourth in the Cesarewitch; and the Melrose winner, Valley Forge (5.3), could improve, stepped up to 2m and was the morning punt.
MISTER! VALUE BET OF THE DAY
⭕ 2.35 Haydock (Silver Bowl) It’s potentially a battle of the claimers, with Benoit De La Sayette (5lb) bidding to follow up his Newmarket strike on Mighty Ulysses.
Claiming 7lb is Aidan Keeley, given charge of Mister Wilson by Gavin Cromwell. Mister Wilson will carry a featherweight, and the rain will help his cause.
His second to Markaz Paname at Naas got a massive boost when that one won the Gladness, a Curragh Group 3, against older horses. The Gladness runner-up goes for a Group 2 at the Curragh tomorrow.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value of the day: 6.5 Mister Wilson
CAT SET TO POUNCE ON BEARS
⭕ 3.10 Haydock (Sandy Lane Stakes) A cracking 6f contest, with another Irish raider, Ger Lyons’ Beauty Inspire, who has to step up a grade to Group 2 after 305 days off.
Go Bears Go won the Railway Stakes at this level last June; second in the Norfolk Stakes and the Breeders Cup, he is superfit from taking the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot 24 days back.
El Caballo and Flaming Rib both have to step up from Listed level, but Flying Childers winner, Caturra (‘The Cat’ in the yard), was only a neck behind Go Bears Go in the Middle Park.
Just headed out of it at Chantilly last month, giving 8lb to the winner. The 10.0 on BETDAQ was ‘wrong’ this morning.
Wings Of War was four lengths behind Go Bears Go in the Commonwealth Cup Trial but was giving 4lb and has cheekpieces first time today.
‘RIB’ COULD BOOST KING’S LYNN
⭕ 3.45 Haydock (Temple Stakes) Another Group 2, another cracking sprint, usually won by a three-year-old star who has trained on to four this year. Am I talking about Winter Power?
The Cornwallis winner in 2020 (soft) won the Nunthorpe (firm) last year but it’s a worry that all his second-season success was at York, and another question-mark that his stable is out of form this season. Tim Easterby just 7-95 in two weeks and 1-34 most recently.
Kings Lynn won a Listed here a year ago, and needs a good run in the Sandy Lane from Flaming Rib, the gelding’s Chester conqueror, though it was a race to forget for the Queen’s five-year–old: giving 9lb and carried wide. BETDAQ 6.3
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Goodwood (win 12)
BET 2pts win GISBURN
2.00 Haydock (win 20 x 2, win 10)
BET 2.5pts win GOOBINATOR
BET 2pts win MIRANDA
BET 2pts win VALLEY FORGE
2.35 Haydock (win 50, nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 9pts win MISTER WILSON
3.10 Haydock (win 20, win 12)
BET 2pts win CATURRA
BET 4pts win GO BEARS GO
3.20 The Curragh (win 25, win 10)
BET 2pts e.w. IVY LEAGUE at 13.5
BET 2pts win BUCKAROO
3.45 Haydock (win 20)
BET 4pts win KINGS LYNN
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
