BEWARE HAYDOCK GOING CHANGE: Daqman takes you through the card at Haydock today, where rain has changed the going forecast to good from good to firm with a warning that a further change is possible. He has strong bets at 8.3 and 13.5 on BETDAQ.
ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN: Next week Daqman previews Royal Ascot on a daily basis from Tuesday onwards to match the races themselves the same day the following week. Another warning if you are betting ante-post: some races have changed days and the times switched.
SEEING 8.3 OFFERS IS BELIEVING
⭕ 1.50 Haydock (Listed 5f) This looks like a match between Live In The Dream, whose last 16 races have all been over 5f, and Believing who has run 15 of 16 starts over 6f or 7f.
Believing, a good outsider for the Jubilee, is brought into this by rain and pace in the high draw which will put the pressure on the low numbers.
Live In The Dream won the 2023 Nunthorpe at York on firm ground, but, at 28-1, that was the one race he was not expected to win.
His other Group form figures last season were 23422, and he was twice beaten favourite. He drops to a Listed today but has lost at that level, too. His overall 1-7 since last May doesn’t read like an even-money shot.
Live In The Dream and runner-up Highfield Princess were greatly favoured by the draw at York on a day when the far side was riding fastest.
Believing was only a three-year-old when she finished third in the Group-1 Haydock Sprint (6f) in September, after taking a Listed at Pontefract. She has scored on firm and soft, and is rated-and-weighted just a pound behind Live In The Dream.
Commanche Falls has never raced over less than 6f, and is seven now. When he was second at Ascot (6f) in October, Pink Crystal (3rd) didn’t get a clear run or might have a Group 3 to her name. The one stall is a worry and she needs the run.
BETDAQ value: 8.3 Believing
THE GRACE AND FAVOUR GAMBLE
⭕ 2.25 Haydock (1m 4f handicap, going good to firm) Four-year-olds have won this every time so far, which points up Divina Grace, Iron Lion and Struth.
Divina Grace stepped up in trip last season, and in class and rating, as she scored three times from June (1m 2f) to September (1m 4f), all on good to firm. Closed rapidly from 10-1 opening last night.
Iron Lion is a soft-ground winner in lower grades and Struth, while he has often gone close, hasn’t won a race for more than a year (13 runs back) and is up only 3lb.
Knightswood, finding it difficult raised in the ratings and therefore in grade, has run his best form on the soft.
BETDAQ value 3.75 Divina Grace
HAGGAS SET FOR TREBLE WITH SEA
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (1m 4f fillies’ Group 3) Usually a small-field race, in which William Haggas is 3-5, and has another fine chance with Sea Theme (BETDAQ 6.2), whose win in a Listed at York in August prompted a crack at a Group 3 in September.
She wasn’t herself that day and was given a long holiday with today’s race in mind to secure Haggas and Tom Marquand a treble.
Miss Cantik also missed out on a similar try for Group-3 glory 16 days back, and her success has been over a mile on the soft. This also applies to Queen Of The Pride.
But Sea Theme has serious rivals in Night Sparkle and Sapphire Seas, who both completed four-timers in late summer last year.
Sapphire Seas landed a Listed last September after scoring here at Haydock, but all four strikes were short of 1m 4f and she was raised 10lb, whereas Night Sparkle was winning up to 1m 6f and raised 20lb.
However, both finally achieved 104, just a pound behind Caernarfon, fourth in the 1,000 Guineas and third in the Oaks, though very disappointing since, finding a Group-race career too tough.
Lady Baba won on very soft ground at Fontainebleau but was beaten a length at Newmarket on firm, despite receiving a stone from the winner.
KINGSCOTE BOOKING IS THE KEY
⭕ 3.35 Haydock (7f John Of Gaunt Stakes, Group 3) Usually a small race, but today’s double-figure field will favour low numbers around the early left-hander.
I remember Home Of The Brave (out of 6) getting to the rail and making all, letting them come to him until the final swing left-handed into the straight (four out) and then kicking on again.
Witch Hunter, from the one stall today, is a hold-up horse, and I couldn’t fancy a slow-starter like Bless Him (2), now aged 10, but Quinault (3) made all at Ascot in September (good to firm), and Richard Kingscote is an interesting booking.
Haydock is far and away Kingscote’s winningmost track: his 1-2-3 of courses is: Haydock (134 wins), Bath (43) and Windsor (41).
Pogo (4) won this in 2022 in a clever ride by Kieran Shoemark, making the running but slowing the pace until he kicked for home two out.
Kieran seems sure to try that again but Quinault – another with a big Jubilee chance – is four years younger, the right age to make his mark for the season.
Charles Bishop on last year’s winner, Jumby (stall 11), and Tom Marquand on Tiber Flow (10), inevitably forced to drop in from their outside draws.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 13.5 Quinault
MARQUAND SWITCH IN GOLD RUSH
⭕ 4.10 Haydock Marquand, who also rides Pink Crystal and Sea Theme for William Haggas earlier on, switches to Tennessee Gold here. BETDAQ 5.2 taken.
Clock-watchers are ignoring the slow time of his Kempton strike, attracted more by the pace he showed to carve his way through the field, first run gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Haydock (win 30)
BET 4pts win and place BELIEVING
2.25 Haydock (win 20)
BET 7pts win DIVINA GRACE
3.00 Haydock (win 20)
BET 4pts win SEA THEME
3.35 Haydock (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4pts win and place QUINAULT
4.10 Haydock (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win TENNESSEE GOLD
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