SEVEN NAPS AS 7.0 BETDAQ BET WINS: It’s murder for the layers! Daqman who had 15 naps from 18 completed earlier in the month has now hit another seven from eight, thanks to Moidore (WON 9-2) yesterday, selected at a magic-value 7.0 on BETDAQ.
WON 13-8 Lawman’s Thunder
WON 5-4 Russian Realm
WON 11-4 Tioga Pass
WON 4-6 Adelaide (banker)
WON 2-1 Never Never
2nd 3-1 Loch Ma Naire
WON 6-5 Red Icon (banker)
WON 9-2 Moidore (from 7.0)
270 POINTS PROFIT IN NINE DAYS: That takes his best-bets profit to 270 points from a notional 20-point level stakes on each horse in the nine-day 11111211 naps sequence, in which there was one non-runner.
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 34-9: The Daqman v Pricewise challenge resumes today in the 2.5 and 2.40 Haydock, 2.50 York, and 3.00 and 3.35 Newmarket. The scores are 34-9 to Daqman on the Flat, 73-21 overall since his challenge began.
GO FOR GARSWOOD AS BET OF THE DAY
2.05 Haydock Can Astonishing, a lovely mover who has won her two races right-handed, act so well on the soft, left-handed, and reverse Newbury form (not clear run) with Cubanita?
Last year’s winner on firm, Moment In Time, now has to get this trip – from a fast pace, possibly set by Special Meaning – on the soft ground and it was a smaller field last year. I put my trust in Stoute and took 4.3 Astonishing.
2.20 York (Grand Cup) Group-placed horses drop down the grade to win this, notably from the Godolphin stable of Saeed bin Suroor, going for a hat-trick with Statutory.
Cap O’Rushes (12f Group 3) has already won higher up in the Pattern, while Altea Lilea was placed in both the Lillie Langtry and the Park Hill Stakes, the fillies’ St Leger (15f).
John Porter third Rawaki officially gets joint top rating with the Graded-hurdles placed First Mohican and another from the jumps that will be a real threat is Clever Cookie.
With the Scottish County Hurdle part of a ‘sticks’ hat-trick, he cheekily grabbed a Flat maiden at the age of six and that seemed to be the end of it.
But he ran away with a handicap at York, albeit off a decent mark, but dropped back to 10f, revealing speed to blend with his obvious stamina.
Cap O’Rushes is easy to back this morning at 9.0, as confidence grew in First Mohican, with the in-form Alan King bullish. Saver: Clever Cookie.
2.40 Haydock (John Of Gaunt Stakes) Like Moment In Time earlier on this track, German raider Amarillo, short-head winner on firm in this last year, returns on very different ground.
He was second in a Group 1 in Italy on soft but some of those races are not much more than the lower-Group or Listed level, which this field – all bar Here Comes When – have achieved in England and Ireland.
When Amarillo won last year, he beat a previous John O’Gauint winner and a Listed third, and, officially, has 8lb to find on Garswood (around 5.0 on BETDAQ, as I write), who has probably run his best races at this trip, winner of the Lennox and third to Moonlight Cloud in the Foret.
2.50 York Older horses win this rarely (9/10 were a maximum five years old). In the six years, high stalls (11-15) have won four but stalls 1-5 have picked up eight places (one win). So the flanks of either side.
That’s where we’ll find Body And Soul, Normal Equiliibrium and Tumblewind from the sub-six age group, with Body And Soul having form figures up to today’s class 2 on soft of 111, if you delete first run of each season.
Overall, without first run and up to and including Listed level, he’s 113113. Yet Body And Soul was a huge 16.0 in the BETDAQ orange, early mouse, and I have increased my stake.
3.00 Newmarket By now, there will be some clue as to whether the ground is riding even, and so whether there is bias in the draw. With no such information, I will assume that Burwaaz and Peterkin take the high numbers along at a pace faster than Dominate’s lone furrow on the low side. Don’t Bother Me can take advantage.
3.05 Chester Tim Easterby has another big chance here with a CD winner – my headline when it won for us – Laffan all the way to the bank!
But Purcell also loves Chester; in fact, any left-hander. He is well drawn, if Oisin Murphy’s claim is enough (it leaves him 3lb higher than for winning Ladbrokes Handicap at Lingfield in April).
3.35 Newmarket Mighty Yar’s success has come on firm ground and, albeit on his seasonal debut, the Teofil ogrey was disappointing on the soft on the Rowley Mile course.
Rye House, another Stoute kept in training, may have most to fear from Duke Of Clarence, who gets further and will be staying on: the BETDAQ offers of 11.5 looks big.
3.50 Haydock (Sandy Lane Stakes) One of my golden rules is to never back a horse which has won only its maiden, particularly if that maiden was first time out and the animal was quickly stepped up in grade.
Parbold is the example par excellence. Winning first time, he then took in the Coventry Stakes, Vintage Stakes and Gimcrack. Hard to blame trainer Richard Fahey, who saw his beast run second to War Command, third to Toormore and third, again, to Astaire.
Does that make Parbold the nearly horse of the season, still to be feared? Well, there is another golden rule that applies to Parbold: trainers of nearly horses must, must, must have them fit and ready in the Spring of the following season before others are in full stride, so that they can beat opposition they might fear later on.
Did Parbold do that? Yes, he was 4-1 for the Free Handicap in April. Did he win? No. Did he try again? Yes, he was beaten yet again, this time 3-1 favourite, in another Listed, this one at Newmarket.
Final golden rule to test the nearly horse? It goes like this: it’s all very well saying that good horses, even great horses, beat him; but what did he beat in the process?
Well, the next seven home in the Coventry never won a single race. But for one winner of a four-horse class-3, the same applies to the Vintage Stakes. Ditto, the Gimcrack, barring a winner in Dubai. Ditto his races this Spring.
Or to put it in simple language: Parbold has beaten absolutely nothing. One of those already behind Parbold is Aeolus, so is this Listed so weak that, surely, Parbold must win?
The professional punter’s answer must be: yes, he may, but stats of each of the three golden rules say that I will win around 70% of the time (I’m not being exact; I’m not giving all my secrets away). So I’m laying Parbold because seven Parbolds out of 10 and more will lose.
The ratings say that Mick’s Yer Man (107) and Shamshon (106) are, within strike of Parbold. But I shall take the totally unexposed Betimes, dropped back to sprinting after the 1,000 Guineas.
She had only two horses behind her at Newmarket but, would you believe they were winners of three Group 2s. If Parbold wins, I shall have – overall – seven winning lays out of nine to come. So, no worries.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 6pts win ASTONISHING (2.05 Haydock)
BET 4.5pts win FIRST MOHICAN and 0.8pts win (stakes saver) CLEVER COOKIE (2.20 York)
BET 5pts win (nap) GARSWOOD (2.40 Haydock)
BET 2pts win and place (to win 30) BODY AND SOUL (2.50 York)
BET 3.5pts win DON’T BOTHER ME (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 7pts win PURCELL (3.05 Chester)
BET 7pts win RYE HOUSE and 2pts win DUKE OF CLARENCE (3.35 Newmarket)
LAY 10pts PARBOLD, and BET 2.5pts win BETIMES (3.50 Haydock)
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