DAQMAN’S 109-POINT LEAD ON PRICEWISE: Daqman looks at the chances for Ryan Moore and Richard Fahey in particular today as they try to blast their way to a hatful of winners. Where will his nap be? Well, Daqman is swaggering (clue) about his 109-point lead over Pricewise (32-8 returns) and sets up the challenge again today.
ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN NEXT WEEK: Look out next week as Daqman presents his See How They Won analysis of Royal Ascot races worth ante-post bets and why.
LUCKY SEVEN? MOORE MARATHON
MOORE MAKES HAY: Ryan Moore brings a 25% current strike-rate – 21% on the track – to seven rides here at Haydock this afternoon, two for Sir Michael Stoute, both familiar to him.
But it’s quite a rare occasion in that he hasn’t sat on any one of the five others, in public at any rate. I reckon he can land a hat-trick with Holiday Magic, Dubka and Mitchum Swagger, though I’d go win-and-place where you can.
FAHEY FANCIES FIVE: What’s not unusual is a blanket coverage of five English meetings by Richard Fahey, though 32 declared runners is a bit tough on the petrol bill even by his standards.
Be warned that Fahey has a poor single-figure strike rate at Haydock and, although better at Chester, his figures there are bolstered by 21% hits with two-year-olds.
Catterick is much the best Fahey hunting ground, with an overall 25% but again a high rate with juveniles (31%). His best bet there may be Young John (4.35) who has been eased in grade and has his ground.
HAVE A HOLIDAY AT HAYDOCK
2.55 Haydock The handicapper won’t budge more than a pound, though Ryan Moore’s mount here, Holiday Magic, has failed seven times since a hat-trick at 7f-1m at the turn of the year.
But his place in this is intriguing: it’s a drop in class from the higher grade of all seven of those races and it’s only his second 6f start in the last 13, including a good effort in a big field on the last day, after also running well in the Victoria Cup. Offers around the 10-1 mark were too big this morning.
Reflektor is 9lb higher than his last winning mark but likes the soft ground and has a good draw. Also high drawn is Northgate Lad. It’s nearly two years and 14 races since he won but he’s shed only a pound in that time. Cruel.
3.30 Haydock Trainers are creatures of habit and, whenever Roger Varian, has a decent set of fillies and mares, he targets this race, with successful results since 2011 of two winners and one other in the frame: 1134.
Ajman Princess was runner-up in the Ribblesdale on the soft at Royal Ascot nearly a year ago now but is back to form and going for a hat-trick here.
She’s a tail-swisher and remained a maiden until March so there are still question marks.
Those who will ask the questions are Bateel, who likes the ground and showed stamina for her new yard on the last day, and Dubka, who was beaten by Ajman Princess at Goodwood on firm.
That was too bad to be true and her sire, Dubawi, has a stunning record with progeny racing on soft ground. Connections clearly want some black type for her and, at 7.4 in the BETDAQ orange, she looked a solid win-and-place bet against a favourite hovering around 2-1.
4.05 Haydock (John Of Gaunt Stakes) Horses aged four and five have combined to win eight of the last nine of these and a five-year-old today, Mitchum Swagger, ticks a lot of bpxes.
Likes soft ground; drops in class from the Group-1 Lockinge, has Ryan Moore up for the first time; and is a course winner and a distance winner; in fact, has never been out of the first two at Haydock: 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
He’s well in with Breton Rock, who was in front of him in the Lockinge but has been beaten in this John Of Gaunt two years running.
30.0 THREAT TO FLYING CHICO
2.30 Newmarket The July Course opens today in flaming June (!), and that’s not a description of the weather but an expletive of frustration among trainers trying to dodge the rain.
They may just be successful here, though the ground is soft elsewhere. So it is that we have big fields for the handicaps.
Juanito Chico flew home at Epsom and should follow up. But there’s a place bet in the race: Ahlan Bil Zain is huge at 30.0. He failed to dodge a downpour on the last day and you can forget that.
But the Group-1 entered lightweight showed up well in the Epsom Derby Trial behind the subsequent Derby third, Cracksman.
3.05 Newmarket Al Qahwa, who raced in the Pattern last year, dropped to a handicap at the York Dante meeting in May on his first run since being switched to David O’Meara and his first as a gelding. He beat 15 others that day..
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 1pt win and place MAKSAB (1.25 Newmarket)
BET 8pts win JUANITO CHICO, and 1pt win and place AHLAN BIL ZAIN (2.30 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win and place HOLIDAY MAGIC (2.55 Haydock)
BET 5pt5s win AL QAHWA (3.05 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win and place DUBKA, plus 3.75pts win (stakes saver) AJMAN PRINCESS (3.30 Haydock)
BET 6pts win JAAMEH (3.40 Newmarket)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) MITCHUM SWAGGER (4.05 Haydock)
BET 7.5pts win YOUNG JOHN (4.35 Catterick)
BET 5pts win and place LOOKIN AT LEE (11.37 Belmont Park)
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