GOLD TODAY AND GOLD TOMORROW! Daqman recommends two bets for gold, one at 5.5 for today’s Hennessy Gold Cup, and one at 12.5 ante-post for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. That’s the strength of his confidence in THE SAME HORSE! The Saturday king starts the day like this:
Bankers form 111F11
Naps 1F212
Lays 1111111111111
Daqman 8, Pricewise 1
(overall 254-96)
FOUR FRIDAY DAQMAN WINS: Daqman had four wins yesterday but it was not the best day for his staking plans (he should have made a handsome profit), or for his nap, which finished second after looking all over the winner:
WIN Kasakh Noir (WON 4-1)
WIN Missed Approach (WON 5-2)
WIN Champers On Ice (WON 2-1)
WIN Upepito (lay, 2nd 5-1 favourite)
13 WINNING LAYS IN A ROW: The defeat of Upepito gave him a 13th consecutive winning lay, eight of them favourite:
WIN Bathos (unplaced 4-1)
WIN Grendisar (4th 9-4 favourite)
WIN Zebstar, place lay (unplaced 12-1)
WIN Cameraman (2nd 9-4 favourite)
WIN Gleneagles (unplaced 9-4)
WIN Wild Storm (unplaced 5-2 favourite)
WIN Fame Game (unplaced 4-1 favourite)
WIN Alfie Spinner (unplaced 14-1)
WIN Kings Palace, place lay (unplaced 13-2 favourite)
WIN Mick Jazz, place lay (pulled up 6-1 jt favourite)
WIN Gunner Fifteen (unplaced 13-8 favourite)
WIN Big Whiskey (2nd 4-1)
WIN Upepito (2nd 5-1 favourite)
SAPHIR THE DIAMOND IN THE HENNESSY ROUGH
3.00 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup, see ABC Guide, Daqman Archive, Thursday) When Coneygree was still in the Hennessy Gold Cup, I was going to make Saphir Du Rheu a banker, my first ever in a big handicap.
But, without Coneygree as the anchor topweight, it is not such plain sailing. It is now Saphir Du Rheu who has an enormous amount of ballast, the same as Denman (twice) and Trabolgan for their three Hennessy wins in the decade.
And Paul Nicholls colourful quote – that ‘Saphir’ has the pace of Kauto Star and the stamina of Denman – now needs weighting on the side of stamina in today’s conditions.
But this sapphire seems a diamond in the rough, with very little else coming even close to such sparkling quality in the race. What can beat him?
Only one of a double-figure age has won this since 1967, and old men don’t come back and win this: Bobs Worth has had just a hurdles race success since December, 2013.
The Druids Nephew has 15lb more than when only seventh in last year’s Hennessy, and Smad Place was 20-lengths fifth off today’s mark, albeit he’s a better horse now.
If In Doubt will need a miracle to score after 236 days off and with 10lb more than his last winning mark.
Notice how high these fancied horses are in the weights to Saphir Du Rheu, making him still seem well enough handicapped.
Houblon Des Obeaux was second last year, and has actually dropped a pound in the ratings, and is 12lb better for little more than two lengths with The Young Master on their Ascot Silver Cup one-two last Christmas.
The bottom half-dozen have lightweights simply because they are light on form and quality.
But there’s a dark horse among them, Splash Of Ginge (38.0 offers), whose dam was half-sister to a Gold Cup winner, pushed down to their handicap level by his rider’s claim.
A nearly horse so far but this is his first race when fit at a marathon trip and his target is the Grand National. Stable had a decent winner yesterday.
VERDICT: I’ve had two ‘gold’ bets in one day, taking 5.5 Saphir Du Rheu for the Hennessy and 12.5 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Houblon des Obeaux is ‘wrong’ at 15.5.
ORDER-IN: 1 Saphir Du Rheu, 2 Houblon Des Obeaux, 3 Splash of Ginge.
FULL SHIFT THE ONE ‘EXPECTED’ OVER FENCES
12.15 Newbury After four in in row, Tea In Transvaal’s sequence came to an end, and Colla Pier is reckoned not sound enough in her wind to cope with hard driving on soft ground.
I shall take a chance with Lady Persephone, who was knocked out of her stride on her hurdles debut and seems sure to do better. Her sire gets heavy-ground horses: 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
12.45 Newbury (Fulke Walwyn Trophy) Six-year-olds have swept the board for the trophy so far but Javert needs further than this.
For Two finds nothing much off the bridle, which is what landed me yesterday’s lay with Upepito, who also emptied out.
Arzal made all the running at Ludlow and could be hard to catch, while Aso ran up to his Grade-2 hurdles mark first time over fences.
But the one we’ve been waiting for is Full Shift, reckoned capable of leaving his hurdles form well behind over fences: 6.6 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
1.15 Newbury (Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase) An open, old-fashioned handicap, the kind of race the late Dessie Hughes loved to win in Ireland with a sound jumper out of the mud like Si C’Etait Vrai, taken over from his old stable by the burgeoning Bath yard of Neil Mulholland.
Team Pipe is equally excited about La Vaticane, a heavy-ground sequence horse in France, getting her conditions for the first time over here.
Hat-trick seeker Aloomomo is up in grade and up a stone on his Warwick success in a small race, beating nothing. Those who saw him hack clear will be playing up the winnings but I can’t see it. Lay.
Shangani scored on the course off an identical mark on heavy but that was way back in March 2014 when the jockey on the runner-up almost took the wrong course and lost momentum.
2.25 Newbury Cole Harden won the World Hurdle; Whisper beat him at Aintree. There was less than a point between them for today’s race in the BETDAQ orange this morning, and they are an identical 9.4 for the 2016 World title back at Cheltenham.
It’s a race for partisans: you pays your money and you takes your choice. Me? I’ll just watch but clearly Cole Harden is the ‘one most likely to’ at Cheltenham, so his 9.4 for the festival looks best.
BRAVE RATES A FIGHTING NAP AT NEWCASTLE
2.05 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle) Irving and Top Notch were one-two at Haydock and likely to stay that way, with Top Notch more suited to the terrain of Cheltenham (narrowly beaten in the Triumph Hurdle) but both face ‘the bounce’ factor of a race too soon.
And a Group horse on the Flat – placed in the Ebor, Irish St Leger and Long Distance Cup – Wicklow Brave looks a strong bet after a fine effort, third to Nichols Canyon and champion-hurdler Faugheen in the Morgiana.
2.40 Newcastle (Rehearsal Chase) Has Nigel Twiston-Davies (Ballykan) got another Beat The Boys (2009), Paul Nicholls (Virak) another Neptune Collonges (2006) or Colin Tizzard (Masters Hill) a replacement for three-times winner Hey Big Spender?
Tizzard is bullish about Masters Hill after his Graduation Chase second in the mud, but I believe there is a real quality horse here in The Last Samuri.
The BETDAQ 7.2 taken this morning looks a superb offer about the hurdles hat-trick winner who did the same over fences (still standing). It would have been four the way he was running through at Kelso before tipping up at the second last.
BULLISH ABOUT BERRY IN BETDAQ OPENER
12.20 Doncaster (Betdaq.com – Serious About Horses Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase) Adam Nicol, Lizzie Jelly, Jamie Hamilton and Jonathan England are the top ‘boys’ here on races won.
Jamie has already scored three times on Sgt Bull Berry. Back to form at Southwell recently, he put back-to-back wins together in quick time in the summer.
12.50 Doncaster (Betdaq.com 2% Commission Novices’ Hurdle) Do squeeze the orange here! Make a bigger offer and you’ll get that 2% Commission. First we need the winner!
Ascotdeux Nellerie has won over shorter but as if this extra trip would suit, though has to defy the penalty.
Cloudy Dream also looked in need of this stiffer test when beaten at odds on over the minimum last time, but the forecast rain, described as ‘showers only’, may not be enough to help him.
Waiting Patiently, a length in front of him at Hexham, was also staying on well. Keep an eye on Some Kinda Lama and Stage One, who both showed promise in the Points field.
1.20 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £50 In Free Bets Handicap Hurdle) It’s hard to reject a Dan Skelton runner (he’s 6.8 on BETDAQ as I write ) but, though Adrakhan ran well on his handicap debut at Cheltenham, he was well adrift of Double W’s at the business end of the race.
Zulu Oscar returns after more than a year off, and Bobs Lady Tamure hasn’t been seen since the Spring (needs a downpour).
1.55 Doncaster (Betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Novices’ Handicap Chase) Oliver’s Gold is up a total of 12lb for back-to-back chase wins..
I can’t be sure of Coologue’s Bangor success, since the favourite, Theinval, didn’t really run his race.
Also winenrs over fences are Jack Steel and Katachenko, whose form was represented by runner-up Mon Successeur at Newbury yesterday.
Mont Royale has some useful form over the bigger obstacles, while winning hurdler Elmore Black is bred for the chasing game.
That also applies to Special Catch but he’s been absent for 623 days and we don’t know what to expect. We do know that his stable is quiet just now.
2.30 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £100 Casino Bonus Handicap Hurdle) Three CD winners: the Reveleys again, with Harveys Hope; plus Hannah’s Princess and Red Devil Boys.
Hannah’s Princess is dropped in class. She ran second in the Mares’ Final last season, she could be a lot better than her mark, whereas Red Devil Boys has been chasing.
Prairie Town’s staying-on victory up the Sandown hill prompts connections to try the extra trip of this race.
Runner-up Songsmith comes out of the San down event a length or so in front at the weights; the significance of that is that a he was also the ‘moral’ when two or three pounds the better horse, runner-up to Big Generator at Southwell.
That collateral form suggests that there’s not much between Prairie Town and Big Generator here, so that handicapper has probably got it right.
But Prairie Town looks progressive, in which case it’s the layers who’ve got it wrong: 10.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
3.05 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £50 Games Bonus Mares Novices’ Hurdle) Robins Reef was sauntering home at Ludlow until she decided to admire the scenery at Ludlow and allow the others to get closer. Keep your eye on the ball, Mr Tinkler; she’s my Daq Multiples double with the nap.
3.40 Doncaster (Free Betdaq Trading Software On betdaqtraders.com NH Flat Race) Captain Sam, Jam Session and Russian Approval have the right credentials for this. Long term, and long distance, the grey Kafella could be the best horse in the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated)
BET 2.6pts win LADY PERSEPHONE (12.15 Newbury)
BET (to win 20) 7.6pts win SGT BULL BERRY (12.20 Doncaster)
BET 5.3pts win FULL SHIFT (12.45 Newbury)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY (place) 5pts ALOOMOMO, and BET 4.4pts win LA VATICANE and 3.8pts win SI C’ETAIT VRAI (1.15 Newbury)
BET 15pts win (nap) WICKLOW BRAVE (2.05 Newcastle)
BET (to win 20) 9pts win HANNAH’S PRINCESS, and 2pts win and place PRAIRIE TOWN (2.30 Doncster)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 8pts win THE LAST SAMURI (2.40 Newcastle)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 11pts win SAPHIR DU RHEU, and (win 30) 3.4pts win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, and 1.35 win and place SPLASH OF GINGE (3.00 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: Wicklow Brave (2.05 Newcastle) and Robins Reef (3.05 Doncaster)
ANTE-POST: BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 4.3pts win SAPHIR DU RHEU (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
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