SEVEN BANKERS UP OUT OF EIGHT: Daqman made it seven consecutive winning bankers, still standing, yesterday. But Jenkins (WON 10-11) followed one that failed to complete. It happens. The sequence looks like this:
WON 4-5 Tara View
WON 8-11 Le Prezien
WON 4-7 Baron Alco
WON 8-15 Asthuria
WON 4-5 Yanworth
WON 2-1 Lough Derg Spirit
(Royal Plaza 8-13 UR)
WON 10-11 Jenkins
THREE FORTUNE COOKIES TODAY: Jenkins was another winning Fortune Cookie, and there are three more today – Generous Ransom (1.30 Newbury), Thistlecrack (12.55 Newbury) and Bellshill (3.15 Gowran Park) – but Daqman completely ignored another in the list yesterday, One Track Mind. Rightly so; he seems to have gone wrong and belies his trainer’s opinion: ‘Best horse I ever trained.’
EIGHT-HORSE VALUE CHALLENGE: The Daqman v Pricewise value challenge remains at 2-1, but hots up today with a total of eight bets each in the 1.30, 2.05, 3.10 and 3.45 Newbury, and the 3.30 Newcastle.
9.4 BETDAQ OFFER IS LOOKING GENEROUS
12.55 (Worcester Novices’ Chase) Team Tizzard, Colin and son, Joe, won this race with Joe Lively (2007) and that result – three years before the now legendary Cue Card came along – was the start of the rise and rise of a big-time stable.
Cue Card’s star still shines, with yet more to come it seems, but this is no longer a one-horse outfit: Thistlecrack could be even better, but is such a short price here that we win ‘nothing’ with a bet, even from a banker stake.
1.30 Newbury (Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial) Harry Redknapp’s Violets Boy is changing stables more often than it’s owner changed football clubs: Brendan Powell won with Boy at this class-3 level; Oliver Sherwood didn’t. Now Nick Mitchell tries his hand but it would be his first chase winner this season.
It would be Antony’s hat-trick. He’s up in the weights but is improving and versatile as to distance: 8.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. Gentleman Jon pulled up behind him in April but is himself on a hat-trick mission today, albeit he seems to reserve his best for Wincanton and needs a sound surface (as does Fox Appeal).
Generous Ransom, another who’s changed stables – 15lb lower than for Nick Gifford at this time last season – looks thrown in now and his new yard warns that he’s expected to go on to better things: 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
On Tour has to give weight all round and, if you’re backing a Jonjo horse (In The Rough) right now, you need plenty of chips to get out of trouble! But Fergal O’Brien (high in the handicap Mystifiable) is acey-deucy, with five winners and six seconds in 13 days.
Waldorf Salad needs mud but should cut a lot of throats from the front, including another who likes to lead, Warriors Tale (tends to make novice errors).
SURVIVOR TODAY: BIG FUTURE TOMORROW
2.05 Newbury A really, really exciting novice chaser; and a potential star of the future over fences. And that’s just two of the runners – Born Survivor and Favorito Buck’s – as described by their trainers. But the question for backers is not of the future but what is going to win over hurdles now!
Gibralfaro is high in the handicap, so trying a new trip. Onefitzall lacks fluency and Battle Born will need a couple of runs after his long absence, says trainer Charlie Longsdon. Gassin Golf is an old bridesmaid.
So it brings you back to 4.5 offer Born Survivor, surely a stronger front-runner than Robinshill (needs top of the ground) and Royal Guardsman. The three of them might break clear.
2.40 Newbury (Gerry Feilden Hurdle) Nicky Henderson has won this four times in the decade but the stable choice of the grey Omessa Has is a puzzle: mixed hurdles and chases to no great effect in France; tailed off on his English debut.
Presumably we can expect better from the filly, and she’s no ‘hidden horse’ at 4.2 favourite in the BETDAQ this morning.
But there are winners of 18 races here, so she will have to be something special. I’ll have a tilt at her with one (at 6.2) that’s spent most of his career in Graded company: after all, Who Dares Wins!
2.55 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle) Apple’s Jade twice had Sceau Royal behind her last season and can get back on the Champion Hurdle trail at the expense of Petit Mouchoir, whose jumping fluency has let him down. Pass the handkerchief if he wins.
RIVER RUNS AS GOOD THING IN THE YARD
3.10 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup, see ABC guide Thursday) The top six in my Thursday ABC guide all stand their ground.
Flat-track form puts a question-mark over Blaklion and points up the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree, when he could manage only a one-paced third behind Native River and Henri Parry Morgan, with Un Temps Pour Tout seven lengths off them at level weights.
Both Henri Parry Morgan and Un Temps Pour Tout are festooned with aids – black marks in races of the highest level – and Blaklion doesn’t get enough of a weight pull to reverse the placings with Native River.
As Cue Card and Thistlecrack hog the limelight, this one – eight in a row in the first three – Native River the only six-year-old in the Hennessy and success would put him up there with his illustrious stablemates. Colin Tzzard says he’s ‘near enough a good thing’ at 7.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
Standing in the way is Colin’s local rival, champion Paul Nicholls, who has a formidable hand with Saphir Du Rheu (10.5 on BETDAQ best offers this morning) and Scottish National winner Vicente.
Now 10lb lower in the handicap than when trying, off 11st 12lb, to give lumps of weight to the first two, Smad Place and Theatre Guide, in this race last year.
Has kept Grade-1 company since (including against Thistlecrack and Cue Card) and looks poised to strike, down in class and fit from a recent third in Ascot Gold Cup Handicap.
3.15 Gowran Park I’m banking on Grade-1 hurdles winner Bellshill to continue my run of maximum-stakes bets. Another from that level over hurdles, Don’t Touch It will keep the favourite’s price up.
Willie Mullins also has a hot hurdles recruit in bumpers-star Invitation Only (1.00), another to go in the multiple bets.
3.30 Newcastle (Rehearsal Chase) Wakanda and Virak, first and second in a fierce tussle for this last season, both prepped for today’s renbewal at Wetherby, with Virak looking the most forward of the pair.
In fact, Wakanda’s handler, Sue Smith (also runs No Planning), is struggling with her chasers so far (just 2-50) and currently missing strike badly with 19 of 25 runners in the first four but just the one winner. That’s a training trick she would not care to repeat.
Lucinda Russell is also in poor form (1-19) and Clondaw Knight hasn’t been seen since Cheltenham last year. Bristol De Mai (5.0 on BETDAQ) could win it if he accepts restraint. Onefittzall (2.05 Newbury) would boost the chances of the brave Definitly Red.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 4.2pts win ANTONY and 3.5pts win GENEROUS RANSOM (1.30 Newbury)
BET 8.5pts win BORN SURVIVOR (2.05 Newbury)
BET 5.7pts win WHO DARES WINS (2.40 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 8.3pts win NATIVE RIVER, and 5pts win and place SAPHIR DU RHEU (3.10 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) BELLSHILL (3.15 Gowran Park)
BET 7.5pts win BRISTOL DE MAI (3.30 Newcastle)
BET 3pts win and place WHISPERING HARRY (3.45 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 4pts win trebles and 1pt win acca Thistlecrack (12.55 Newbury), Invitation Only (1.00 Gowran Park), Apple’s Jade (2.55 Newcastle) and Bellshill (3.15 Gowran Park).
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