BIG BETDAQ OFFERS ON THE SATURDAY BEFORE ROYAL ASCOT: The big stuff is back tomorrow with the French Oaks, says Daqman. Then we have to go and get the topper fitted for Royal Ascot. My one in the wardrobe will crash down onto my nose: no swelled head here after catching a cold at the rain-drenched gaffe tracks in the last week or so. Maybe these big BETDAQ offers will replenish the wallet for the royal meeting:
🔹 BILLY CRYING OUT FOR THE CUP TRIP
🔹 17.0 FIRMAMENT LOVES IT AT YORK
🔹 BARON IS NEVER OUT OF THE FRAME
🔹 VENTURE HUGE 22.0 BETDAQ SECRET
BILLY CRYING OUT FOR THE CUP TRIP
1.50 York (Queen Mother’s Cup) Seven of the last nine winners were tastily placed between 8-1 and 12-1 in the final market, which is where I expected to find Billy No Mates, ‘hidden horse’ of the race, clearly saved up for this first attempt at 12 furlongs.
Billy, who represents last year’s winning team of Michael and Sophie Dods, and won over a mile on the soft at Thirsk last season, should relish this step up in trip, if he is to realise his pedigree.
He was 12.0 on BETDAQ early mouse, but my analysis didn’t reach its conclusion until he was down to 9.0. Silly Daqman.
Three-year-olds have won it just the once in the decade, and it’s advisable to have an alternative in such a contest: big field, soft ground, lady riders.
Multellie (big at 21.0 win offers; around 5.1 the place) went nine consecutive races in the first four last season, including three wins at this trip, one on the soft. The combo of Tim and Emily Easterby won this race three years ago and Tim additionally trained back-to-back winners in 2011-12.
17.0 FIRMAMENT LOVES IT AT YORK
2.25 York 11-1 SP and 16-1 twice in just four seasons suggests another Knavesmire race in which to avoid the favourites. They also face winning round the left-hand bend from high stalls.
Aljady (in 14), a winner on the soft, looked for all the world as if needing this step back up to 7f after finishing well, third, in a big-field sprint on the York course in May, his first run gelded. May be best of the high stalls (8.0 on BETDAQ early mouse).
Kaeso (in 18), third at this meeting last year, has run two cracking races this season on two completely different tracks: third in the big-field Victoria Cup at Ascot, he then railed round Chester to beat a good benchmark, with Gabrial, renewing rivalry today, in third and Aces seventh.
Gabrial is better off at the weights but is twice Kaeso’s age, and has won all his handicaps at 8, 9 and 10 furlongs. Though he’s owned by Marwan Koukash, he’s run 12 times at Chester without scoring, so very expensive for connections who love the place, therefore clearly unreliable.
Get Knotted (stall 20) has won here at York three years running at the July meeting, and he’s taking the same route to try for a fourth, after being runner-up in today’s race last year.
The winner that day, Above The Rest (out of gate 19), is 2lb lower, and is just a pound worse off with Get Knotted (Golden Apollo fifth).
Lord Oberon ran three good races for Clifford Lee, culminating in a Doncaster success at this level over this trip on the soft, but he’s failed twice this season since Lee lost his claim and is 8lb higher.
His arduous task today is revealed by his meeting Great Prospector – only sixth at Doncaster – on a stone worse terms!
Above The Rest is 2lb lower than when winning this race last year, and is just a pound worse off with the runner-up Get Knotted.
It’s getting on for three years since Firmament beat Mustashry over a mile here at York. If that form meant anything now, Firmament would be rated 124 not 93!
It doesn’t much but he’s down in the weights, has York form of 12323, has James Doyle booked and is drawn 3. So 17.0 on BETDAQ is value for a win, taking insurance cover only for a place.
BARON IS NEVER OUT OF THE FRAME
3.15 Sandown This is what they call a handicap these days, with 10 horses in the field inside a 4lb weight range. Imagine a conditions race where most of them have the same rating.
Now visualise a whole racecard made up of handicaps and conditions races like that – a punter’s nightmare – and that’s the way it’s going.
Baltic Baron, a new recruit for David O’Meara from Andre Fabre, has never been out of the first four, and was thought good enough to try a Group race: around 7.0 on BETDAQ.
Greenside has been in fine form this year, fourth in the big-field Newbury Spring Cup and third at the Derby meeting (just in front of Masham Star), though his win was in class 3 on a lower-grade track.
Stablemate Thrave, a soft-ground winner, is half his age and almost as good, as he also just misses strike in strong handicaps.
David O’Meara fancies History Writer (9.0), trying to recoup the losses of a narrow defeat over today’s CD at York in May, and needing the run when seventh in the Newbury Spring Cup. Jason Watson booked.
VENTURE HUGE 22.0 BETDAQ SECRET
3.35 York It’s often in sprints like this one (with winning weights from 8st 3lb to 9st 7lb in the last three years) that you still get a long handicap. Nine of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st.
Stall 17 beat 6, 18 and 3 in the 6f at York yesterday, which is a pattern repeated in the results of this sprint handicap over a decade, with six wins to the low six stalls and three to high numbers (12, 14, 18): the middle gets squeezed out.
As, in theory, the handicapper has engineered 20-odd horses to finish level, the weights and the draw are the edges we need.
I took 7.4 on BETDAQ about Victory Day (stall 21 of 8st 9lb), who made it look easy at Ripon, but that was his maiden. Is there as much to come as Dazzling Dan found after his maiden?
Dan won a class-2 at Newmarket (Luxor last), but now has to hold the fourth horse, Moraawed, with the handicapper having equalised them at the weights but with Morawed blinkered first time today.
Rathbone and Blown By Wind have been kept at the same difference in weight that separated them by a head at Leicester.
Cosmic Law, seven lengths off Calyx in the 2018 Coventry, has gradually dropped in the ratings and came back well after being gelded, narrowly beaten giving more than a stone to the winner at Chester.
But there’s not much between Cosmic Law and Dave Dexter since they were placed over this 6f on soft in the autumn. Same chance for Secret Venture, who divided them at Ayr (5f) on heavy.
Secret Venture (stall 2 and with 8st 12lb), a Kevin Ryan stablemate of Rathbone, looks ideally placed, having had a run back and seemingly the choice of Daniel Tudhope. Huge at 22.0 the win, with a place bet to cover all win stakes on the race.
NAP: Richard Johnson is 50% for Gordon Elliott and he travels to the far reaches for his only ride of the day, Darling Miss (4.30 Hexham). As long as he doesn’t know the Daqman nap is on him, he has a chance!
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 York (win 30 each, win 10 place)
BET 3.75pts win BILLY NO MATES
BET 1.5pts win and 2.5pts place MULTELLIE
2.25 York (win 50 each)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7pts win ALJADY
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win and 1pt place FIRMAMENT
3.15 Sandown (win 30)
BET 5pts win BALTIC BARON
BET 3.75pts win HISTORY WRITER
3.35 York (win 50 each, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7.75pts win VICTORY DAY
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.25pts win and 4pts place SECRET VENTURE
4.30 Hexham (win 10)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) DARLING MISS
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