WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN: WHAT A WEEK! Daqman just missed out on a National double when, after Coolking (WON 8-1) on Monday, he was beaten a neck with Millicent Silver (2nd 10-1 from 15.5 on BETDAQ), trying to add the Devon to the Surrey National. But he landed a fourth nap with Gilgamesh (WON 11-10). His unbeaten week looks like this:
- FIVE winning days in a row
- 120 points profit
- FOURTH consecutive banker
- FOUR naps up out of five
THE 10 THAT PRODUCED 120 POINTS PROFIT: Like Millicent Silver, you could have had a better price about most of these in the BETDAQ morning orange.
WON 8-1 Coolking (Monday nap)
WON 8-1 Plaisir d’Amour (Tuesday)
WON 5-1 Mossback (Wednesday)
WON 9-2 Banny’s Lad (Thursday)
WON 7-2 Tommy Silver (Tuesday nap)
WON 5-4 Charming Zen (Wednesday)
WON 11-10 Gilgamesh (Friday nap)
WON 4-11 Jerrysback (Tuesday)
WON 1-3 Paint The Clouds (Wednesday gold banker nap)
WIN (2nd 10-1 from 15.5) Millicent Silver (w/p Friday)
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 16-8: Today Frodon (2.25 Kempton) runs for Daqman’s new horses-to-follow list and he takes on Pricewise in the 2.05 Lingfield, 2.45 Newcastle Eider Chase, and 3.35 Kempton. The scores are Daqman 16, Pricewise 8, with 39 points the gap between them (+25 to -14).
18.0 STREETS AHEAD IN THE EIDER
2.45 Newcastle (Eider Chase) Before Comply Or Die (2008) went on to take the Grand National, you have to go back to Highland Wedding (1969) to find an Eider-National double.
This year it’s unlikely to have even a runner. From a sub-standard Eider today, top-weight Straidnahanna is number 78 on the National card with 9st 11lb, Milansbar number 80 and Streets of Promise 84.
The lesser quality is also reflected in the weight for last year’s runner-up Shotgun Paddy, who carried 11st 12lb off 144, whereas the 11st 12lb top-weight this time is only on 139.
Shotgun Paddy is now rated 7lb lower, with the third home, former winner Portrait King, 6lb worse off; the fourth Mysteree 18lb worse; and Milborough (7th) also at a further disadvantage.
As well as being runner-up in the Eider a year ago, Shotgun Paddy had been third in the Welsh Grand National, and gets his 7lb lower mark despite also running third in the Warwick Classic in January (holds Knockanrawley), a race he won in 2014.
That’s about the time that Emperor’s Choice won the Welsh Grand National but he’s been in poor form recently and needs first-time blinkers to bring him back to life.
Russe Blanc won the Warwick Classic last year and was back to form recently. Morney Wing, the Sussex National winner, is 10lb higher.
Mountainous has won that Welsh National twice and was back to form – second – on the last day but, at his age, it is unusual to make another strike when you’ve just missed one.
Michael Scudamore, who beat me on the line yesterday with Kingswell Theatre, has two chances in this: as well as Mysteree, he has Streets Of Promise, third – first run back – when Mountainous was second at Hereford recently; should get this trip on breeding and has had only six chase starts; 3-4 on heavy ground.
Straidnahanna (holds Alto des Mottes) won the North Yorkshire National six weeks ago but that was on good ground. Out Sam has raced like a stayer and is given his chance to prove it here.
Likewise Berea Boru, but he’s been badly out of form for nearly a year and a visor replaces cheekpieces today. Like Smooth Stepper, he’s tried a marathon once and failed.
VERDICT: Shotgun Paddy (8.0 on BETDAQ) looks well in here, dropped 9lb since he was second in the race a year ago. Russe Blanc (12.0 offers) is back to form for this, his target race. Streets Of Promise (18.0) is from the yard that won the Devon National yesterday.
60.0 NATIONAL BET IN THE BOBBYJO
3.30 Fairyhouse (Bobbyjo Chase) After On His Own won this aged 10 in 2014, he went on to finish second to Lord Windermere in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Now here’s Lord Windermere at 11 years old attempting his own comeback in this Bobbyjo Chase. His target is not the Gold Cup again but the Liverpool Grand National, for which he is being allowed to run off 147, a drop of 18lb since his peak just four races ago, despite defeat by only a short-head at Thurles in November.
At 11.5 for this on BETDAQ, Lord Windermere is offered at 60.0 for Aintree this morning and, though he’s best backed for a place today, a good run could see his National odds shorten.
KEMPTON: HUSH! TAKE SOME 8.8..
1.50 Kempton (Adonis Juvenile Hurdle) This Grade 2, which has produced future champions in Binocular (2008) and Zarkandar (2011), features Charli Parcs, who is third favourite in the BETDAQ ante-post orange for both the Supreme Novice Hurdle and the Triumph.
Master Blueyes has ground to make up on him on him but he’s surprised Alan King and may yet be a Cheltenham contender; and, if you want a bet before today’s race, you can get 48.0 in the BETDAQ Triumph window, though he’s also entered for the Fred Winter.
Or what about this? Charli Parcs has won only a class 2 and is strictly 10 lengths better than Master Blueyes, making him a 143 rated, which is only a pound in front of the official mark for Evening Hush.
Since Evening Hush receives 7lb today, his 8.8 offers on BETDAQ are big value against the 1.62 about the favourite, whose win odds are not as good as Hush’s place offers!
The filly was runner-up to Defi Du Seuil on the last day and that one is in front of Charli Parcs in the Triumph Hurdle betting.
2.25 Kempton (Pendil Novices Chase) Paul Nicholls record in this is 1111131141F, which is 8-10 still standing, and Frodon may be his best, winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicap and the Scottish Future Champions Chase. Frodon was backable as a banker on BETDAQ this morning: 10 required to win seven.
3.35 Kempton Tom George won this twice with Nacarat and his runner today, Double Shuffle, was a CD scorer over Christmas in a decent contest, one grade lower.
Irish Saint took the Pendil on this card two years ago and has been laid out for this by that man Nicholls. Theatre Guide, Aso and Three Musketeers are all Grade-1 entered at Cheltenham.
Horses of eight and nine have won seven out of 10 in this race. That again takes me to Irish Saint – I took 5.9 – but, of the seven-year-olds the handicapper is not yet in charge of, Ballykan (16.5) looked interesting, fourth in the race last year and with his stable going great guns.
LINGFIELD: RIDE THE GROUP HORSES
2.05 Lingfield (Hever Sprint) Horses aged four and five win this (9-10) but the front runners in the market are older, which suggests a win-and-place bet on an outsider might be in order.
Ride Like The Wind (9.8 BETDAQ offers) has moved to the right yard for an English sprint career, and Jamie Spencer has been booked for last summer’s French Group-race performer.
3.15 Lingfield (Winter Derby) Punters are keeping faith with a previous winner and second in this, Grendisar, who was jockeying Battalion for the jolly this morning, though Battalion has beaten him the last twice and is weighted to do so again, if narrowly.
Battalion also holds Pinzolo and I was more worried about the Group performers, Convey and Mutakayyef (withdrawn), and I shall take a pound of the 6.0 offers Convey, a real early bird for Sir Michael Stoute.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 3.75pts win and place EVENING HUSH (1.50 Kempton)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FRODON (2.25 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win and place RIDE LIKE THE WIND (2.05 Lingfield)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4.5pts win RUSSE BLANC, 3pts win and place STREETS OF PROMISE, and (to win 30) 4pts win SHOTGUN PADDY (all 2.45 Newcastle)
BET 6pts win CONVEY (3.15 Lingfield)
BET 2.75pts win and place LORD WINDERMERE (3.30 Fairyhouse)
BET 6pts win IRISH SAINT, and 2pts win and place BALLYKAN (3.35 Kempton)
TON-UP ANTE-POST BET (to win 100): 1.75pts win LORD WINDERMERE (Aintree Grand National)
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