DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 32-19: Saturday-king Daqman is on the oche with bull’s-eye bets at Sandown today at big BETDAQ value 47.0, 19.5, 15.5 and 11.5. He leads Pricewise of the Racing Post 32-19 in winning bets en route to Cheltenham.
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Yes, Imperial Cup day at Sandown means it’s Cheltenham next week. Reprise the festival stats and facts every day this week and the final countdown from tomorrow.
Today’s headlines:
TIHATY IS STILL IMPROVING
MONVIEL IMPERIAL MEASURE
FLIRTING WITH BETDAQ 15.5
KNIGHT IS THE EVENING NAP
TIHATY IS STILL IMPROVING
⭕ 2.05 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) After four winners of this actually ran in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster (the nearest came 7th), the last two either never raced again (2021) or never raced on turf (2020).
In fact, in the last decade, NO Lincoln winner had raced in England on AW before his Doncaster triumph; two had run in Meydan but, for the eight others, the big handicap was the first race of the year.
Whether upping today’s prize to £25,000 will help this out-of-date Trial, I doubt; maybe a bonus for the double is the answer.
As for today’s winner, eight out of nine recently successful in the race have been 8-1 or shorter at SP (three were favourite).
La Tihaty (BETDAQ 4.8) is going for a five-timer: the Daqman column was on when he won at Kempton earlier this year, as he progressed through the ranks from class 5 to today’s class 2.
The top two in the market are still close together in the ratings after the Kempton one-two of La Tihaty and Hafeet Alain, separated a length at a difference of a pound.
Roger Varian now employs Saffie Osborne to keep La Tihaty’s weight down, after Hafeet Alain beat a 100-rated four-year-old at Lingfield recently.
Baldomero held United Front a neck at Kempton. This time there’s no claimer involved as the handicapper tries to equalise them.
⭕ 2.40 Wolverhampton Happy Power (BETDAQ 4.5) will have his followers for this 7f Listed from a low draw, dropping in class after 11 consecutive Group races.
Misty Grey is 1111 at Wolver and La Tihaty, who beat the grey readily receiving weight at Kempton, could give her a form boost in the previous race here at Wolver.
MONVIEL IMPERIAL MEASURE
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Imperial Cup) STATS: Only one winner in 17 years has carried 11st or more. Only five have been older than seven since 1958. Favourites are 1-10.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2); one each for Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, Neil King, Dan Skelton and Ian Williams.
LAYS LOGIC: SP favourites in the last nine renewals have finished: 8th 3-1; PU 11-4; 3rd 3-1; PU 9-2; 4th 9-2; 2nd 5-1; 3rd 100-30; 3rd 3-1; and 6th at 2-1. Jt favs were both beaten in 2011.
FORM: Paul Nicholls’ Miranda runs off the same mark as when she was 5th last year (beaten 23 lengths; Mick Maestro pulled up) but that gives her 11st 12lb this time. So it’s a bigger field today but a weaker race.
Miranda suppresses the weights for stablemates Samarrive, a CD winner in December by more than eight lengths. Now 7lb worse off with the runner-up, Zambezi Fix, but still looks in charge.
You can forgive his Ascot run when the Ditcheat yard was under a cloud.
Nicholls also runs Hacker Des Places, with Angus Cheleda claiming 5lb.. The stable won this previously with a similarly unexposed five-year-old from France (Malaya, 2019).
Balco Coastal’s novice experience has worked out well but he’s a short price (see Lays Logic) in such a big field containing unexposed horses like ‘Hacker.’
Onemorefortheroad has similar form – placed in a Graded race after a sequence – and has been kept to fairly sound surfaces.
Hystery Bere finished well from out of the back door at Cheltenham, showing he’s happy running through horses, so a really nice prep for this.
The CD winner Monviel could have moved forward at home after his double off very little racing. He’s with the right stable, has stamina in his blood and has ‘nothing’ on his back.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 11.5 Hystery Bere, 19.5 Samarrive, 47.0 Monviel.
FLIRTING WITH BETDAQ 15.5
⭕ 3.00 Sandown Horses aged 5 and 6 together have beaten the four-year-olds 7-3 in this Listed bumper, and Nicky Henderson hasn’t won it. Nor has his stable won a single race (0-16) in the last 19 days.
LAYS LOGIC: Lays Logic says that’s three very good reasons to oppose any gamble on four-year-old Luccia.
Additionally, the second, third, fourth, sixth and seventh from her Warwick win have all been beaten since. I make that four holes blown in her hull.
Whether that’s enough to sink her or not also depends on the rest of the field. Eabha Grace and Hidden Beauty won first time out but downed tools the last day, or at least something was ‘amiss’.
Mullenberg beat Fairy Gem at Cheltenham so is already a winner of a Listed, and finished a long way in front of the fourth that day, Flirtatious Girl.
But Flirtatious Girl was winner here at Sandown in March, and three wins and a Graded place came out of those behind her.
The mare hung badly right-handed on the tough left-hander at Cheltenham. I’ll give her another chance back going right-handed here on a track she’s won at.
The one thing she has is toughness and, if David Bass can keep control of the steering, she could be mighty hard to beat in the uphill finish.
🏇 HOOFNOTE: I had nightmares last night after Morning Spirit came to win going easily when he fell at the 13th at Exeter yesterday, the race before Trelawne made his challenge on the run-in but swerved off to the left and threw it all away.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 15.5 Flirtatious Girl, 2.64 Mullenberg
KNIGHT IS THE EVENING NAP
⭕ 7.00 Kempton For the nap I’m with King’s Knight, which this column punted when scoring at Lingfield last Spring, when second and third both scored next time out.
This is his first run dropped back to the class 4 of that day, having spent most of last year on class-2 turf.
He’s fit from his tour in Bahrain, third there only three weeks ago, and the second favourite today, Gobi Sunset, has modest form on Polytrack. BETDAQ 3.3.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win LA TIHATY
2.40 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win HAPPY POWER
2.25 Sandown (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, win 12 place)
BET 5pts win HYSTERY BERE
BET 2.75pts win SAMARRIVE
BET 1pt win and 2pts place MONVIEL
3.00 Sandown (win 50, win 10)
BET 3.5pts win FLIRTATIOUS GIRL
BET 6pts win MULLENBERG
7.00 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 4pts win KING’S KNIGHT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
