IT’S GOING TO BE HEAVY AT DONCASTER: It’s Lincoln Handicap day at Doncaster but heavy ground (soft in places) threatens turn-ups on the card, so Daqman spreads his bets and spots 12.5, 13.0, 19.0 and 27.0 value offers on BETDAQ. He starts the day 1-1 with Pricewise. Headlines:
BORN LUCKY TO LAND THIS
IT MAY BE TALES YOU WIN!
TITIAN A PICTURE AT 13.0
EHRAZ STRONGLY FANCIED
AL BACK LINCOLN FAVOURITE
CLASSIC TRIALS TOMORROW: It’s heavy, too, at Leopardstown where the Guineas trials are due to be run tomorrow, alongside the second day at Doncaster. See you on this page.
BORN LUCKY TO LAND THIS
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster (Brocklesby Stakes) The first race used to be easier when it was an apprentices handicap!
Seven winners out of nine have been drawn from 2 to 7, and a lot of old-timers will be cheering Bill Turner (No Sinner out of stall 2) to resume winning ways in a race he’s taken six times.
LAYS LOGIC The price of the overnight favourite, Valadero, bred for a trip, seems to ignore the 15 other runners!
Out of the tricky one-stall for an early-bird trainer, Sankari gets my pound, the name meaning ‘born lucky.’ BETDAQ 19.0.
IT MAY BE TALES YOU WIN!
⭕ 2.05 Kempton (Magnolia Stakes) Charlie Appleby is 40% this year (12-30) in GB and this is the first of two top races at Kempton today in which he is head to head with Andrew Balding.
Balding, who trains Aztec Empire against Bandinelli in the Queens Prize, saddles Foxes Tales (BETDAQ 5.1), a fast-finisher in the Winter Derby but without success since 2021.
His target is to stop Appleby’s Secret State, a rapid improver until beaten in the Great Voltigeur. Wind surgery and gelded since, which implies that this world-travelling trainer thinks the Godolphin four-year-old has a big future on the track in his second season. BETDAQ 3.7
TITIAN A PICTURE AT 13.0
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster (Spring Mile) Six of the last seven winners were four-year-olds drawn from 1 to 8 and carrying 9st 5lb or more.
Those stats suggest Baltimore Boy out of gate 5 with the stable doing well (seven winners this year).
But he and Dirtyoldtown (2) have won only as novice maidens, always a bad sign, though Dirtyoldtown has a second chance at a career in blinkers.
Isla Kai, who scored here on the soft, seems to have been prepped for today by a stable in form. BETDAQ 7.0.
In fact, Nigel Tinkler usually gets his winners in a heap and feels he was unlucky not to beat the cut into the Lincoln for Isla Kai.
I am told to have a pound on Titian (BETDAQ 13.0), a strong sort who won at York over further; the pace of a big-field cavalry charge like this will suit and he looks a picture at home.
EHRAZ STRONGLY FANCIED
⭕ 3.00 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) The royal runner, Kings Lynn, is 1221 at Doncaster, with his last win on the soft in a Listed race like today.
Ehraz is by Showcasing whose progeny have around 20% strike rate on soft ground. Sixth in a big field of top-of-the-range sprinters for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and strongly fancied by trainer Richard Hannon.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 8.6 Kings Lynn, 9 Ehraz.
⭕ 3.15 Kempton (Queen’s Prize) Can front–runner Bandinelli, the winner last year, give 8lb to Aztec Empire, who won his qualifier by beating a 10-year-old who hasn’t scored since 2020?
It’s another clash between William Buick on Bandinelli at BETDAQ 5.2 and Oisin Murphy at little better than even money on Aztec Empire. It’s clear where the value lies.
AL BACK LINCOLN FAVOURITE
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) STATS preview: yesterday’s Daqman.
MEET the A Team! You want the first three in the Lincoln, then look no further than ‘A’ in my ABC guide.
Coincidence? They do happen. Like yesterday’s Daqman headline “Bag this Channon shot.” Shot won 20-1 and Kitbag was second at 6-4. I can’t claim it.
But, after burning the midnight oil (that’s costly these days!), I ended up with three horses for the Lincoln beginning with the letter ‘A’. And I’m fully prepared for a winning favourite.
Majestic, whose stable won the race last year, looks best priced of the remainder, along with low-drawn Jimi Hendrix but he was out of sight behind Majestic in the Cambridgeshire.
Another box ticked for the favourite, Al Mubhir, is that he breaks out of gate 10 which has won it twice in the last four years, including on soft ground. Atrium is in stall 13, Majestic 16 and Awaal 17.
1: AL MUBHIR Frankel colt with ‘a big future,’ according to trainer William Haggas, who has already won the Irish Lincolnshire.
2: AWAAL Just four runs worries me a bit but he has already scored in a big field, and the going was heavy that day.
3: ATRIUM Improved for the autumn ground; saves himself for the racetrack and jockey Kieran Shoemark has a 20% strike rate for the stable.
4: MAJESTIC From last year’s winning yard, which is now under the name of Jack Channon. Claimed off, which two winners in the decade were.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 6.4 Al Mubhir, 6.6 Awaal, 12.5 Atrium, 27 Majestic
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 22 total)
BET 1pt win and place SANKARI
2.05 Kempton (win 12, win 10)
BET 4.5pts win SECRET STATE
BET 2.5pts win FOXES TALES
2.25 Doncaster (each to win 12)
BET 2pts win ISLA KHAI
BET 1pt win TITIAN
3.00 Doncaster (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.25pts win EHRAZ
BET 6.5pts win KINGS LYNN
3.15 Kempton (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win BANDINELLI
3.35 Doncaster (win-50 x 2, win 30 x 2)
BET 4.25pts win ATRIUM
BET 2pts win MAJESTIC
BET 5.6pts win AL MUBHIR
BET 5.25pts win AWAAL
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