THEY’RE OFF FOR A BIG-VALUE LINCOLN ON BETDAQ: It’s Lincoln Day and Daqman has big value BETDAQ bets at 8.0, 11.0 and 15.5. How value? Check out the percentages! They’re in your favour big time, as Daqman explains.
NEXT WEEK: TOP STORIES ON THE GRAND NATIONAL: After Day 2 at Doncaster tomorrow, Daqman counts down to Aintree next week with top features for winner-finding:
➡️ The Grand National hoodoo
➡️ The truth about the weights
➡️ National ABC guide
➡️ Bull’s-eye naps
RIPP ORF? NO, IT’S BETDAQ VALUE
3.35 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) There is no standout in this year’s Lincoln, despite the consistent market strength in Auxerre and the late gamble on Beringer.
A vital ingredient in the recipe for backing the winner is that he should have raced over further. But, on good ground, 1m 2f winners may find the mile too short.
How about a horse with the speed to win at 7f but who travels well and usually comes with a flourish, staying on as if the mile is really what he wants? I give you Ripp Orf.
And, while I’m on the subject, I suggest you avoid the annual rip-off: the official starting price has been 134-135% overround in the last two years.
This morning as I write the BETDAQ orange is 107% and I bet the BETDAQ XSP will also be better than the bookies. Win or lose, do yourself a favour and get market value!
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3-4 and order in
1: Ripp Orf Impressive last year and goes well for Hayley Turner. Victoria Cup winner and, win this or not, will be going for the double. An Ascot lover – he won another big handicap there in the autumn – will enjoy the straight mile of Town Moor.
2: Beringer One of the week’s big gambles with bookmakers, since Andrea Atzeni switched to him. Won over further (1m 2f) and progressed a stone and a half on summer ground!
3: Saltonstall Trainer Ado McGuinness is in terrific form (4-9 = 44%). Ado warned of this 2018 Irish Lincolnshire runner-up that he’s best with give in the ground but has been convinced that, despite a sunny Donny, there is plenty of ‘bounce’ in the surface.
4: Kynren Trainer (only 4-38 this year) knocking at the door but can Kynren open it for him? He’s a nearly horse so far, third in the Spring Mile, sixth in the Cambridgeshire. On the short-list without being backable.
5: Auxerre He got a good write-up as he ticks boxes in my Thursday ABC guide, is a one-mile hat-trick winner and is with a yard striking at 55% this year on AW. Still ‘could be anything’ but as it stands not a top-handicap favourite.
The six placed horses behind him in those three wins were rubbish. They have run 12 times since for one class-5 novice success and one class-5 maiden.
6: Silver Quartz If it hadn’t been for his change of stable (Hugo Palmer to Archie Watson), I would have really fancied this Frankel grey. Readily beat Zwayyan in Ascot handicap (1m). Gelded and prepped in Lincoln Trial.
7: Humbert His low stall already had me worried but, blow me down, he also left Hugo Palmer, or his neck defeats in both Spring Mile and Spring Cup looked attractive.
8: South Seas Yet another cast-off! Has not won since 2016, when a hat-trick included the Solario Stakes. Left Andrew Balding’s yard for Philip Kirby’s, and dropped 5lb since gelded. Jamie Spencer booked.
9: Aquarium Top of the ABC list, and has that stamina edge which Lincoln winners need. But his York victory in the autumn was against losers and he has a bit too much weight, according to the stats.
10: Masham Star Aquarium’s Mark Johnston stablemate, his strike rate (5-47) is modest and he doesn’t win before June. I don’t like an apprentice for this race, and he had Joe Fanning up when both he and Aquarium ran in the Lincoln Trial. Joe prefers Kempton today but switches to Doncaster tomorrow.
11: Raydiance Reportedly working well. Though soft ground winner twice, swerved the Irish Lincolnshire for this. Twice tried at Pattern level. Trainer and jockey both out of form.
12: Zwayyan, 13 Third Time Lucky But it’s so tricky this year, you could turn this Lucky 13 Lincoln list upside down and get a result!
BET ARBALET NOW BACK IN TRIP
1.50 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Hard to know what is race fit enough at this time of year to win a sprint down the lonely Town Moor straight. Punters have made just one winner clear favourite in nine years.
If you go by the handicapper, then Invincible Army is 5lb clear, and he won first time of asking last season in a Group 3.
Equilateral also won first time last season, and at Doncaster. But he was a couple of lengths short of Group-3-winning standard by the autumn.
The grey Arbalet has also that much to find, but drops back from 7f which seems to suit from my reading of the form, and his 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning was tempting.. Eirene’s best form is on soft ground. Mokarris was a Group-1 colt in 2016.
MOOT POINT ON THE SURFACE
2.05 Kempton (Magnolia Stakes) Eight winners in the decade have been drawn 1-4, and – with last year as an exception – eight out of nine are aged four and five.
Mootasadir (5.5 on BETDAQ) is a handsome Group horse but he likes only artificial surfaces, so will have been trained for this.
Will his Group-3 penalty from Dundalk let in Matterhorn (6-7 on AW), who has a 2lb higher rating, is in receipt of 5lb and seems sure to be given an attacking ride?
Michael Bell had a winner yesterday, and his Fabricate was the one they wanted when markets opened. Fabricate won the race last year from gate 4 but has 7 this time around and is now seven years old.
2.25 Doncaster (Spring Mile) This is class 2 in name only as the tail end of the Lincoln acceptors. Only two in the field have scored at that level!
Calling Out’s English form is all on AW, so I prefer Gulf Of Poets (BETDAQ 10.0), a winner first time out in each of the last two seasons.
Four-year-olds are 8-10 from high in the handicap, so my second bet is Rampant Lion (9.6 offers), who has looked progressive over the winter and has Silvestre De Sousa booked.
GO LIKE THE WIND TO GRAB 7.2
3.15 Kempton (Rosebery Handicap) Success for Mootasadir in the Magnolia would boost Kelly’s Dino, runner-up to that one a month or so back. He was also runner-up in this very race last year. A tricky ride but a handy draw.
Eight out of nine winners have come from the low-numbered stalls, with Count Calabash likely to take them along from the one stall.
Desert Wind (BETDAQ 7.2 taken) may have the edge over that form on a line through Caspar The Cub. The AW hat-trick scorer a year ago was fourth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 30)
BET 5pts win ARBALET
2.05 Kempton (win 30)
BET 6.5pts win MOOTASADIR
2.25 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win RAMPANT LION
BET 2pts win GULF OF POETS
3.15 Kempton (win 30)
BET 4.75pts win (nap) DESERT WIND
3.35 Doncaster (Bull’s-Eye Bets to win 50)
BET 7pts win BERINGER 8.0 Betdaq
BET 5pts win SALTONSTALL 11.0 Betdaq
BET 3.5pts win RIPP ORF 15.5 Betdaq
DAQMAN v PRICEWISE
1.50 and 3.35 Doncaster, 3.15 Kempton
Flat-season score so far: Daqman 0, Pricewise 1
Daqman -2.00, Pricewise + 8.00 to single unit stake
‘EARLY BIRD’ HORSES TO FOLLOW
1.50 Doncaster EIRENE
3.35 Doncaster AUXERRE, RAYDIANCE
2.05 Meydan (UAE Derby) JAHBATH
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
