DAQMAN HAS FOUR BULL’S-EYE BETS UP TO 46-1: Encouraged by a 50-point hit with Sovereign Duke (WON 9-2 from 6.4 on BETDAQ) in the week (just the one shot at bull’s eye), Daqman attacks two races at Warwick plus the Kempton Lanzarote with Bull’s-Eye Bets on huge BETDAQ offers: 47.0, 31.0, 26.0, 24.0, 12.0 and 9.8.
HE HIT 14 BIG WINNERS FOR 48 POINTS PROFIT: Last Saturday he landed Buywise (WON 12-1 from 16.0 on BETDAQ) a big-race winner to storm 14-6 in front of so-called value expert Pricewise and go 46 points clear (+ 48 to +2) for the season so far to a single-unit stake.
TAILGATER PARTY AT KEMPTON
12.20 Kempton Twice in five seasons, Alan King has managed to avoid the top Triumph Hurdle contenders to take this race, and Redicean is supernap material, returning to the scene of his successful debut.
I could win eight for every 10 invested in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
1.30 Kempton This triangular right–hand track should suit triple Wincanton winner Bishops Court but he wasn’t fluent here when just behind Breath of Blighty in November.
And, on a line through the winner, Play The Ace, there’s not much between them both and the bottom one, Turban.
That encourages me to think that Jonjo O’Neill’s The Tailgater – ridden by Jonjo, son of Jonjo – can back up his Doncaster win.
The worry in this open contest could be Sandown winner Mercian Prince, well backed this morning.
They will be pressing the button on both The Tailgater (4.9) and 3.75 BETDAQ favourite Mercian Prince, because both need this sounder surface. At a difference of around a stone, the Prince may find it hard to tailgate young Jonjo.
2.05 Kempton Nicky Henderson saddles Josses Hill in his bid for a race hat-trick. ‘Joss’ loves this track, trip and ground and seemed to improve massively on his tailed-off return behind stablemate Top Notch at Ascot in November to run the same horse to around three lengths at Taunton last month.
Smad Place was also cut adrift in that Ascot race, despite winning at Aintree in October (God’s Own behind), and has been rested since.
If you still ‘believe’ Waiting Patiently’s defeat of Politologue at Haydock, then he’s a certainty here, with Politologue recent winner of both the Tingle Creek and the Desert Orchid.
But that was almost a year ago and Politologue is a 13lb better horse, whereas ‘Patiently’ has not been travelling!
He’s had just one return run this winter, dropped to today’s Listed level in November and another 69 days have elapsed.
Too many red flags for me to take 2.68 about him on BETDAQ this morning, with Malcolm Jefferson getting only 33% out of his horses, according to the Racing Post.
Alan King is doing well again (three winners since the turn of the year) and I pick Smad Place purely on value at a BETDAQ 6.4, hoping he’ll be in good form again.
BIG-PRICE WINNERS? MEE, TOO!
2.40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) Nick Williams, who has 100% record in this race since 2011, with three runners, three winners, shattered the Triumph Hurdle hopes of Gumball and Style De Garde when he scored at Huntingdon with a 20-1 shot yesterday.
It all suggests that his two in this, Dentley de Mee (24.0) and Man From Mars (47.0), are better than the betting suggests, though pitted against a pair of Nicky Henderson favourites.
Man From Mars is the ‘hidden horse’ , kept mainly to the minimum trip but bred for today’s 2m 5f.
Dentley De Mee has been operating at class-4 level but is highly regarded – ‘could be a very good horse’ – and has a featherweight here.
Henderson’s William Henry, Grade-2 Neptune Hurdle trial runner-up a year ago, reverts to the smaller obstacles after pulling up over fences in November and is eight years old now. In my book, that’s two black marks.
Stablemate Diese Des Bieffes is two out of three over hurdles but not certain to stay. River Frost is a nearly horse at this level.
Bags Grove and Spiritofthegames are high in the handicap now as they attempt hat-tricks.
MENGLI TO FLY PAST THE BIRD
1.35 Punchestown (Amateur National) Derek O’Connor goes for a hat-trick here, deserting last year’s winner, Canaly, in favour of 6.6 offer Thebarrowman, who could outstay Jamie Codd on the bridesmaid Bilko.
Bilko’s been placed six times out of 10 over fences without scoring, and is winner only of his maiden, always a bad sign.
2.10 Punchestown (Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle) Willie Mullins landed a four-timer in this (2013-16), the last three Vautour, Douvan and Min, becoming two Supreme Novice Hurdle heroes and a runner-up!
But the recent four winners of this consecutively have been five-year-olds and, though Mullins attacks with a strong trio, all eyes are on Gordon Elliott’s Mengli Khan (2.66 early mouse) to redeem a reputation earned in the Royal Bond.
He was leading Whiskey Sour in the Leopardstown Future Champions over Christmas when he ran out through the wing two from home. The form is stood up to within a pound or two by the 20-lengths third, Hardline, who is also back for more.
Willie’s seeming best, Getabird, had Hardline little more than a length behind him in a bumper and dropping down to the minimum is not ideal but, in the longer term, he is unlikely to let down the family of Long Run, particularly when he goes chasing.
High School Days looks tempting at the weights but has beaten nothing well, and was a big drifter with the bookies and on the exchanges this morning.
CLASSIC CASE FOR COGRY AT 12.0
2.25 Warwick Holywell, second horse home to Ely Brown in this qualifier in 2013, went on to win the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham for Jonjo O’Neill.
Jonjo, who won this Warwick heat in 2012, did it again in 2015 with Join The Clan, who is back for more off a 7lb higher mark. He’s spent most of his time over fences since.
The 26.0 offer Cobolobo is the same age (six) as Join The Clan – 31.0 in the orange – when he won it and, stepped up in trip today after winning two of his last four starts, is likely to bounce back after being bogged down in the mud at Ffos Las with a welter burden on the last day.
3.35 Warwick Classic Punters have been nervous of looking to Aintree with the winner of this, ever since 2011 scorer West End Rocker took the Grand National market by storm only to pull up in the Haydock Trial in February (brought down in the National itself).
So it was that One For Arthur won this last year and was easy to back for Aintree until the day, when he landed a Grand gamble.
Russe Blanc was the Warwick Classic winner of 2016 and he, too, is back, 2lb lower now, after finishing only ninth to One For Arthur in this a year ago but it’s a much weaker race this time around.
That is revealed by the weight now carried by Goodtoknow, who was second that day. He is rated only 2lb higher now but has to carry 15lb more than last year.
Top-weight Missed Approach has been dropped a few pounds but there hasn’t been a penny for him since his NH Chase second at Cheltenham and first-time blinkers didn’t help on the last day.
Sir Mangan did his stuff by winning at Bangor for a local owner but he hasn’t done much over fences since 2015 and this trip is a new departure for him at the age of 10.
A 9.8 shot on BETDAQ this morning, Cresswell Breeze won the Southern National at Fontwell in November and she was afterwards placed in the London National at Sandown off a higher mark.
Scottish Grand National runner-up Cogry is up in the weights but this is such a moderate race, he should come into it. Value at 12.0
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 except where stated)
12.20 Kempton (SP)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win REDICEAN
1.30 Kempton
BET 7.50pts win THE TAILGATER
1.35 Punchestown
BET 5.25pts win THEBARROWMAN
2.05 Kempton
BET 5.75pts win SMAD PLACE
2.10 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 12pts win MENGLI KHAN
2.25 Warwick (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BETS 2pts win and place COBOLOBO
BET 1.6pts win and place JOIN THE CLAN
2.40 Kempton (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 2.2pts win and place DENTLEY DE MEE, and 1.1pts win and place MAN FROM MARS
3.35 Warwick (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BETS 5.5pts win CRESSWELL BREEZE
BET 4pts win and place COGRY
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