IT’S THE SEASON TO BE ‘MERRY’ IN THE WELSH NATIONAL: Daqman, who remains 10-4 up on Pricewise in more than a month of big-race value hunting, rates Merry King his best of three bets in the Welsh Grand National in stamina-sapping ground at Chepstow this afternoon.
11 NAPS OUT OF 12 IN THE FIRST TWO: Daqman was pipped a short head yesterday in his bid for the big chase at Leopardstown when Tony McCoy on Cause Of Causes (2nd 6-1) was beaten in a duel with Ruby Walsh on Rockyaboya. The day’s nap was also second bringing his current run to 111211220112.
1.15 Newbury (Mandarin Chase) Martin Keighley’s Christmas celebrations may not be over. He landed a Boxing Day double with Merlin’s Wish in the Lincolnshire National and Annacotty in the Feltham.
Now he saddles the out-and-out stayer Faultless Feelings with a better chance than the bare form: 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning, as I write.
1.45 Newbury (Challow Hurdle) This race is a kingmaker. It has produced Denman, Wichita Lineman, Diamond Harry and Reve De Sivola in recent seasons, and today’s runners have set up a sequence of 30 races since they were out of the frame.
Malcolm Jefferson, delighted with Oscar Rock at home, has been tempted to switch from a novice event on Friday to this big one, ‘the softer the ground the better.’
Timesremembered (4.3 on BETDAQ) was the ‘moral’ at Cheltenham in November, giving 7lb when beaten a length by Creepy. That’s Graded form.
Captain Cutter will need to improve his jumping, whereas Kaki De La Pree has racereader hurdling comments of ‘very slick’ to his name.
1.50 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle) My Irish pals are getting excited about a Grade-2 novice hurdler called Mala Beach who was due to go chasing but has summered exceptionally well.
In the absence of Solwhit today, he could become a World Hurdle contender by winning this Christmas Hurdle (I took 4.0). Nap.
2.00 Chepstow (Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle) The big two yards of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson don’t do particularly well in this with one winner between them in 10 years, and the favourite has the same modest 10% record.
I very much like Gary Moore’s Violet Dancer, officially only a pound behind Kentucky Hyden in the ratings but 4.2 on BETDAQ where the favourite was 3.15 this morning.
2.35 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National) Thanks to his illustrious stablemate Tidal Bay’s carrying a lump of weight at the top of the handicap, Alfie Sherrin’s brother, Hawkes Point – described as a ‘dour stayer’ by trainer Paul Nicholls – gets in as one of only three racing off the minimum.
From Amigo down, 40% of this field are out of the handicap by between 2lb and 11lb. Of these, Amigo himself might improve for blinkers, and both Tour Des Champs and Red Rocco are with one of the supreme trainers of stayers, Nigel Twiston-Davies.
The Grand National winning connections of Vintage Star think a lot of him but his defeat of Buddy Bolero doesn’t look all that.
Jim Dreaper, who brought Notre Pere over to win in 2008, saddles another youngster, strong stayer, Goonyella, like Vintage Star a son of Presenting. Goonyella has had a ‘nightmare’ trip over but so did Notre Pere and it didn’t stop him.
Well Refreshed, the Haydock Grand National Trial winner in February, came back to form when third in the London National at Sandown earlier this month.
But a nine-year-old (going on 10) hasn’t won this for 10 years. Unlike the Aintree National, this is a marathon for younger horses, and only six aged nine or over have scored since 1976.
Merry King was also back to form at Ascot last month in the November Gold Cup at Ascot and then ran a decent race in the Hennessy, when he finished fifth, just over four lengths behind Highland Lodge, whose front-running style puts me off him.
Blinkers could be the making of Goulanes, who should be right now after his run back in a Graded chase at Cheltenham. As a 3m 2f hurdles winner at Cheltenham, he will get all of todays’ trip.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I took three against the field: 9.2 Goonyella, 12.0 Merry King and 21.0 Goulanes.
2.55 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase) Another kingmaker race, with previous winners Best Mate, Beef Or Salmon and Denman. But can it redeem reputations today?
Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth flopped last month for the stable with the Sprinter Sacre demise hanging over it this weekend. Sir Des Champs, second in that Gold Cup, then winner of the Punchestown version, crashed out early on during his reappearance run on the same course.
And RSA winner, Lord Windermere, a gamble down to 7-1 for the Hennessy at Newbury, was only eighth, though there was some excuse (hampered). He’s never been out of the frame in four runs at Leopardstown.
Unioniste was fourth behind Lord Windermere in the RSA but is a heavy-ground addict, a stout stayer with a mighty leap, perfect for today’s conditions.
Back to form last time, Unioniste, is still only around 160 in the ratings, compared with 173 (question mark) Sir Des Champs and 180 (question mark) Bobs Worth.
But Bobs Worth surely needs a tougher test and has done most of his racing on good to soft, while Sir Des Champs failed (fourth) in this last season.
Two places in front of him was the Ryanair runner-up First Lieutenant, but he is a regular bridesmaid, with 11 of his last 12 starts in the frame without winning.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This is a game about winning enough races at a price to show an overall profit. You can’t win all the time but you must have an opinion and you must have value.
You can’t be right with every decision. I pitched for Dynaste to be a new star but he’s not ready yet. I said there could be more to the Sprinter Sacre late reappearance than we knew but I didn’t lay him.
I’ll take Unioniste to upset the established equine figures in this race though, in fact, since any one of five horses could win it, he is strictly not value but I’m in the ring against Pricewise and must toe the line.
By the way, I don’t look at his selections until I have chosen mine (in fact, I avoid anything that might sway my opinion), and he certainly doesn’t see mine in advance of his own.
The advantage I have is BETDAQ. Today’s 105% Welsh National list in the orange compares with the 121% and 122% Total SP of the last two years. Why dive around a dozen accounts looking for value when one list of offers is so punter friendly?
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win FAULTLESS FEELINGS (1.15 Newbury)
BET 6pts win TIMESREMEMBERED (1.45 Newbury)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) MALA BEACH (1.50 Leopardstown)
BET 6.2pts win VIOLET DANCER (2.00 Chepstow)
BET 2.5pts win GOONYELLA, 1.8pts win MERRY KING and 1pt win and place GOULANES (2.35 Chepstow)
BET 4pts UNIONISTE (2.55 Leopardstown)
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