TOP RACING TALE OF THREE CITIES: It’s the best of times! There’s a massive parade of top horses divided between the Dublin Festival and the west-of-London track at Sandown today, with a getting-out saver on the Edinburgh National. Here’s how Daqman writes the headlines:
BRONN’S BIG AT BETDAQ 6.8
FORTUNE COOKIES DOR OPEN
PRESSE TO MAKE HEADLINES
GREEN BOOK IN NEW CHAPTER
THIRD-TIME-LUCKY COLLONGES
HUNTER NATIONAL FOR LORCAN
TOMORROW: Champion Hurdle day at Leopardstown
BRONN’S BIG AT BETDAQ 6.8
⭕ 1.05 Leopardstown Willie Mullins is expecting big improvement from Bronn, who was ‘very green’ when scoring at Naas, and looks overpriced at 6.8 in the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE orange offers.
⭕ 1.15 Sandown Rerun of a similar race over the CD eight days back when Gunsight Ridge beat the old-timer Bun Doran and Moonlighter. That was on heavy ground but all three have won on ‘good’.
Gunsight Ridge travelled strongly over further when beaten favourite at Exeter six lengths behind L’Homme Presse, who would then climb the ladder and take the Grade-2 ‘Dipper’ at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. BETDAQ 3.9
FORTUNE COOKIES’ DOR OPEN
⭕ 1.35 Leopardstown (Juvenile Hurdle) Fortune Cookies start the weekend with Fil Dor 2.42 in the orange for Gordon Elliottt, who has won this twice in the last seven years, with Willie Mullins on three and Joseph O’Brien also on two.
That trio of stables so dominate again that they have all bar two of the nine-strong field, both outsiders with seemingly very little chance.
Fil Dor appeared to progress markedly when giving 3lb and winning over CD by seven lengths from Lunar Power, whom he’d beaten little more than a length at Fairyhouse in November.
Six Feet Apart was well beaten off in that second meeting but has won narrowly at Doncaster since..
Vauban was turned over at odds on by one further down the pecking order at Elliott’s, though Paul Townend claimed to have received interference ‘all the way down the straight’ at Punchestown.
The third at a distance, HMS Seahorse, had earlier been less than three lengths behind The Tide Turns on the same course. Future chaser Icare Allen may not have the pace for this.
PRESSE TO MAKE HEADLINES
⭕ 2.20 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novices Chase) Our second Fortune Cookie, L’Homme Presse, meets ‘the big horse,’ Pic D’Orhy, in an interesting clash, where Pic’s jumping is on trial: he fell at Newbury in November but looked much more capable at Ascot.
⭕ 2.45 Leopardstown Robbie Power, who is back in the saddle today for Minella Indo, won this on Oscar Sam (2017) but it’s a pinstickers’ race, witness the two recent winners by Willie Mullins, one at 5-6 favourite, the other at 40-1. Who else knew!
Six out of seven winners carried 10st 12lb or less, and Robbie’s ride, Aldo The Apache, who went clear in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) at Naas, looks handy right on the 11st mark for Colm Murphy, albeit he was hiked 20lb for back-to-back wins in the autumn. A tickle at 38.0 on BETDAQ
GREEN BOOK IN NEW CHAPTER
⭕ 2.55 Sandown The favourite in this near-3m handicap hurdle, Ree Okka, is a three-race novice and the rank outside, Easysland, is a 17-chase-wins cross–country champion! That’s the puzzling variety in this 18-strong field at Grade-3 level.
The stats tell us that all bar one winner carried 10st 10lb or less and that the favourite has won only once.
While the consistent Beauport (winner and second in just two runs at Sandown) is claimed off as he steps up in trip for Nigel Twiston-Davies, jockey son Sam partners The Brimming Water (Yeats out of a Presenting mare) for Samuel Drinkwater.
Beauport is 10lb better off with the in–form Jesuitique for a length-and-a-half defeat in November, but made a noise at the end of that race and I was expecting him to have had a wind op or have his tongue tied down.
Dolphin Square and David Maxwell get along famously and came late to win at Newbury and Cheltenham but that’s cost them a 10lb rise.
Green Book, fourth in the Goodwood Handicap and winner of the Chester Plate, stays forever and this is his first 3m hurdle. Very well backed for two educational wins over the sticks at a lower level.
Kildare-trained Born Patriot is over here again in search of better ground, after his second of 14 in a Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham in the autumn. His rating is already on a par with the last winner of the Final at the festival meeting, so surely they wouldn’t welcome a penalty for winning this. But maybe today is the target all along!.
Dans Le Vent still carries an extra 7lb for winning the Haydock Stayers Hurdle on good ground in November but Isobel Williams can claim. If she’d been able to in the Relkeel, Dans Le Vent might have won and been hot favourite for this.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.5 Green Book, 10.5 Dans Le Vent, 11.5 Born Patriot
THIRD-TIME-LUCKY COLLONGE
⭕ 3.15 Leopardstown (Irish Gold Cup): Form preview this column Thursday.
Minella Indo is Group-1 gold as a stayer at Cheltenham but Grade 2 at best elsewhere.
The reverse is true of Kemboy, who has won two Grade-1s at Leopardstown, including this race last year. His nemesis used to be Delta Work, another winner of this race but who has slid 10lb down the ratings.
King George winner in 2020, Frodon, beat Minella Indo and Delta Work in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in the autumn but flopped in this year’s King George and the age of 10 is statistically not the time to launch an Irish Gold Cup career.
However, he has won 16 races and pulls out the stops when least expected to, odds on just the once in the last five years.
Had Asterion Collonge not made a mistake or ballooned the last fence, respectively, he would be likely favourite here as John Durkan winner and King George hero. Third time lucky? Somebody thinks so: he’s 4.2 favourite as I write.
HUNTER NATIONAL FOR LORCAN
⭕ 3.45 Musselburgh (Edinburgh National) Young horses win this in the main, including Mighty Thunder’s victory as an eight-year-old last year, before he went on to take the Scottish National just 4lb lower than today and on similar good ground.
I think he’s aimed at Ayr again, though didn’t like it deep at Chepstow when he pulled up in the Welsh Grand National.
Highland Hunter, who was second, won the London National at Sandown in December on a soundish surface.
Lorcan Williams gets a plum Paul Nicholls ride for his CV while Harry Cobden is at Sandown and Bryony Frost in Ireland.
Another 3m 5f Sandown winner, Step Back, has had a run back after a year off but that may not be enough to ready a 12-year-old who I expected to see in veterans’ chases.
The Wolf stayed on well at Cheltenham (3m 2f) on New Year’s Day but his pedigree offers no encouragement for a real marathon trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.05 Leopardstown (win 20, nap)
BET 3.5pts win BRONN
1.15 Sandown (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win GUNSIGHT RIDGE
1.35 Leopardstown
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win FIL DOR
2.20 Sandown
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win L’HOMME PRESSE
2.45 Leopardstown (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.25pts win ALDO THE APACHE
2.55 Sandown (win 50, win 20 twice)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7.75pts win GREEN BOOK
BET 2pts win on each DANS LE VENT, BORN PATRIOT
3.15 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 3pts win ASTERION COLLONGES
3.45 Musselburgh (win 10)
BET 5pts win HIGHLAND HUNTER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
