DAQMAN’S LEGER DAY LEAD NOW 207 POINTS: After a record-breaking run of five supernaps and outsiders together, Daqman is having a dismal Doncaster but that hasn’t affected his 68-22 lead over Pricewise: 207 points ahead (+98 over -109 to single-unit stakes) in their value challenge.
HE RELIES ON A FAMOUS GOSDEN HAT-TRICK: Today Daqman goes all out for a return from leading trainer John Gosden – £5m won this year so far – believing that he must surely turn Daqman’s Donny luck in one or all of the St Leger, the Champagne Stakes and the Irish Champion Stakes.
GOSDEN IN DAR-ING LEGER GAMBLE
3.35 Doncaster (St Leger) Things ain’t what they used to be. It was Dante for the Derby and Great Voltigeur for the St Leger. The York Classic trials stood supreme.
But only two winners of the Great Voltigeur have won the Leger in 16 years, though three placed without winning the York test have scored at Doncaster in the decade.
Is that a boost for Kew Gardens (third) and not Old Persian (the winner) from this year’s Knavesmire test of 24 days ago?
Old Persian had been well behind Latrobe in the Irish Derby and Latrobe has switched to the Irish Leger tomorrow.
Kew Gardens had come to prominence for the final Classic by winning the Ascot Vase (1m 6f) but the runner-up is only a Listed winner and the third, Nelson, looks like Kew’s pacemaker again today.
I doubt there is enough rain around for Loxley, and the Dee Ex Bee annotation in the Racing Post (‘unexposed’) hardly gels with his 2322032 bridesmaid figures in Classics and their trials.
‘Unexposed’ at the trip is more like it but such a one-paced sort is hard to bet on and, anyway, Mark Johnston’s strike rate has slumped to 10%.
Last year (Enable) and this (Alpha Centauri) fillies have finished off the colts in the latter part of the season. It’s odds-on again that they do it in the Arc, with Enable, Sea Of Class and Lah Ti Dar three of the front four favourites in most books.
Lah Ti Dar, a second-season developer like many Dubawis, has been backed all week to turn over Kew Gardens today, despite her alternative route of Vermeille and then the Arc.
With £5m in the bank already this season, the John Gosden stable also has three of the first four in the Arc market, with Enable favourite and Cracksman said to be showing his best again on the gallops.
What Clarehaven does with such a plethora of riches is the way we have to bet. We are forced to read from their hymn sheet and assume that unbeaten Lah Ti Dar is our godsend for the Leger.
FRANKIE OUT OF THE BLUE AT 15.0
1.50 Doncaster (Portland Handicap) The winners have, generally speaking, been coming down the middle and that’s where they’re favoured in the stats: gates 10-to-15 have won five years out of seven.
Three-year-olds don’t win it, and only the odd one over five in the decade. So the stats best are seemingly Dakota Gold, Open Wide and Udontdodou.
Udontdodou (13.5 on BETDAQ) beat Open Wide on these terms at Windsor a week ago, and Dakota Gold ran second in the Great St Wilfrid.
Golden Apollo was primed for York, as you’d expect of a Tim Easterby, but missed out by a neck and the handicapper hiked him 5lb. Thankyou very much!
The ground is drying out for Blue De Vega (15.0 on BETDAQ), for whom Frankie Dettori has been booked.
BALDING HAS SHAILENE LINED UP
2.40 Chester Sir Chauvelin has yet to break into the Pattern but plummets in class from a Group-2 encounter with Stradivarius.
Blakeney Point is another whose handicap mark forces him to take this Listed route, while Mountain Bell returns to the scene of his success in the race on soft in 2016 when only three.
But I hear from my man in the long grass that we can expect an improved performance from Shailene, brought along slowly by the in-form Andrew Balding with this step up in trip in mind.
Balding, who scored in the race last year, has also won it with a three-year-old (2012). Shailene was 6.2 on BETDAQ early mouse, getting nearly a stone from the front two in the market.
TOO DARNED HOT FOR BALLYDOYLE
3.00 Doncaster (Champagne Stakes) Aidan O’Brien has won this twice in the decade with animals way down the pecking order at Ballydoyle. But the race is too darned hot this time.
Lah Ti Dar’s little brother, Too Darn Hot, the four-lengths Solario winner, should take this on his way to the Dewhurst and confirm his status as winter favourite for the Guineas and the Derby
LION LOOKS BACKABLE ON BETDAQ
6.35 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes) If Ireland escapes the rain, as forecast, then the Lion that roared in the Eclipse and the International can do so again and land a massive big-race treble for John Gosden, whom I’ve tipped to land the St Leger and the Champagne Stakes earlier in the day at Doncaster.
Roaring Lion has looked formidable since the Epsom hill caught him out in the Derby. He stormed clear in the International as if he would have won any Derby that day, yet rewards you around nine for 10 on BETDAQ (1.89) this morning.
The best they can offer against him here is Saxon Warrior, officially 6lb inferior now, though only a neck behind the Lion in the Eclipse.
French Derby winner, Study Of Man, is 11lb in arrears on the ratings and lines through the placed horses have him vastly inferior to Irish Derby winner Latrobe. That’s a pointer to tomorrow! See you then.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win and place UDONTDODOU
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win and place BLUE DE VEGA
2.40 Chester (win 30)
BET 6pts win SHAILENE
3.20 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 1.25pts win and place GOSPEL
3.35 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 10pts win LAH TI DAR
6.35 Leopardstown (win 20)
SUPERNAP: 20 points win ROARING LION
DAQ MULTIPLES (3pts win treble)
SHAILENE (2.40 Chester)
TOO DARN HOT (3.00 Doncaster)
ROARING LION (6.35 Leopardstown
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