BACK-TO-BACK NAPS AT NEWMARKET: Daqman made it two winning days out of two at Newmarket (a total of 28 points up) when his staking strategy again worked a profit on the day, including back-to-back naps.
DAQMAN KNOCK-OUT WITH THE OLD 1-2: The score in his value-challenge for the new Flat season soared to Daqman 14, Pricewise 1 (overall 53-13) after a ding-dong one-two for his win bet and win-and-place bet in the Abernant Stakes:
1: HAMZA (WON 11-4)
2: ES QUE LOVE (2nd 9-1, from 14.2 on BETDAQ)
THREE BEST BETS UP OUT OF FOUR: His winning nap, a banker-stakes bet, was Toormore (WON 1-1), and his best-bets-of-the-day sequence this week, in which he’s landed two bankers out of three, is now
WON 6-1 ANIPA (nap)
2nd 11-4 Pearl Princess (nap)
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
What are the betting angles on this £1m Good Friday? You have exposed horses at the end of their autumn-winter AW season, racing for the most part (not the opener) at level weights.
So we should be looking at the ratings but particularly for lightly-raced contenders saved up from their qualifiers. Winners at two or three coming to this as three and four year olds should show improvement, some markedly.
1.45 Lingfield They’ve stolen the start of the Flat, with this apprentice handicap. Please restore it to Doncaster and give the lads their ‘champion for a race’ opening day.
If you back the jockey in this, you are on Honoured and Oisin Murphy. If you back the horse, Asia Minor should give you a good run. I don’t bet in apprentice races.
2.20 Lingfield This is a class-4 race posing as a class-2. All bar five of these have won only in class 5 or 6. Class-four winners are Burren View Lady (but only at 6f), Glastonberry, Interception (also 6f), High Time Too and Living The Life.
Living The Life, whose future is in America, and High Time Too both drop back from success at a mile, and a strongly-run race will suit High Time Too.
Michael Bell has a high percentage strike-rate and lightly-raced Fashion Line travels well; her prep races and drop back in trip here suggest this has been the target all along, though she’s not ideally drawn.
2.55 Lingfield A much better championship decider with five already having won in class 2: Ertijaal (rated 100), American Hope (99), Steventon Star (97), Complicit (95), and Alutiq (95).
Alutiq impressed me in a Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq race at Kempton in January but was swamped, only seventh, in the Lingfield Spring Cup.
The first four home that day meet again in this three-year-old championship: Ertijaal, who got within a neck of Toormore last season, came out on top of American Hope and Major Crispies, despite having to be used up from a bad draw. He hasn’t been seen since.
The fourth horse, Sir Robert Cheval, who puts Complicit in this picture on their one-two over CD in November, looked a bit unlucky, ‘denied a clear run’ under Adam Kirby.
Kirby now switches to the same stable’s 6f-winner Captain Secret – on whom he’s won twice – with Ryan Moore on ‘Sir Robert’.
Like Ertijaal, Complicit has been saved up for this, after going on to Deauville in December and winning on the Fibresand there.
Passing Star drops back from a front-running double over a mile at Kempton and punters must bet whether Ertijaal, Complict and Sir Robert Cheval can catch him.
3.30 Lingfield: Litigant got up close home in his CD qualifier for this, but fourth, fifth and eighth take him on again, among them Castilo Del Diablo (5th), who afterwards got much closer to the second horse when they were rematched at Kempton.
A line through Ted Spread suggests that Litigant and ‘Castilo’ (who might be a bit of a Diablo) will both beat Arch Villain and Communicator, and others in the race have to prove themselves at the trip.
4.05 Lingfield Valbchek impressed in a November qualifier and has been saved up for this final but, while he should again beat the fourth horse – Hawkeyethenoo – the third, Lancelot Du Lac, is 4lb better for less than two lengths and was given a lot to do that day.
But ‘Lancelot’ was beaten behind Trinityelitedotcom at Kempton recently, albeit giving the winner 8lb, and – along with Valbcheck – they all come out very close together now.
Stepper Point showed the benefit of his gelding op with a powerful success over the minimum on today’s course and may now be capable of stepping up a furlong.
Finding even more collateral form is easy among these fast-track qualifiers, and I give you a February heat over CD, in which Tarooq beat Rivellino a head, with Iptisam fourth
Iptisam has finished about the same distance behind both Tarooq and Stepper Point but was receiving weight from ‘Stepper’, which Points clearly to who is in the driving seat with all those I’ve mentioned as passengers if, as appears, Stepper Point can get the extra furlong.
The official handicapper has no doubt: he’s got Stepper Point on 112, a clear 7lb in front of Tarooq, but I still feel that Valbchek has been trained for the race.
4.40 Lingfield (Ladbrokes AW Mile Championship) Moonday Sun was knocked out of contention in the Newbury Spring Cup and is down in trip to the CD of his narrow defeat in another Ladbrokes Handicap in February.
The grey was the ‘moral’ that day, giving weight to the winner and he (he’s an entire) has been most consistent since.
The official handicapper thinks the winner of this is Chookie Royale after his Wolverhampton Listed success. He certainly has a length or so on Sirius Prospect on a line through Bertiewittle.
But, collaterally through the same horse, he is about the same animal as Grey Mirage, and Chookie Royale and Captain Cat are also equals if earlier Kempton form can be believed.
Yes, it’s another very close race, perhaps the closest of all today, with ratings of 106, 105, 103 (twice), 102 (twice) and 100 chasing after ‘Chookie’.
I had a shock result all lined up here on this rare occasion that a Group-2 and 3 winner in the field is giving weight away! But Highland Knight needs to lead and stall 11 hasn’t given him the advantage I wanted.
The one who’s got the break is Anaconda from gate two. He set them alight from the one stall in the Winter Derby trial (1m 2f), and the fourth horse just in front of him at the finish went on to win the Derby itself (Anaconda badly drawn in 11).
At today’s trip, it seems to be a quesiton of whether Captain Cat can catch Anaconda in the run to the line.
5.20 Lingfield The 1-2-4 in the Winter Derby, Robin Hoods Bay, Aussie Reigns and Dick Doughtywylie, renew rivalry here but the favourite that day, Grandeur, was inconvenienced, out wide in stall 11.
This time around, front-runner Dick Doughtywylie, who swaps stall 11 for 6, and Grandeur – from 14 he is now in 2 – have the advantage, with Aussie Reigns pushed out wide to 11 (from 4).
Robin Hood’s Bay remains a threat in 7 but was well beaten by Grandeur in the Derby Trial in February, albeit off a slower pace. The handicapper has no doubt, with Grandeur 8lb clear.
With tongue in cheek, let me tell you that Dick Doughtywylie was beaten only a few lengths by Guineas favourite, Kingman, the other day.
‘Dick’ is lead horse to Kingman and that ‘race’ was on the gallops. Today is only his second appearance on a racetrack in four months, his first being that Winter Derby fourth from a bad draw.
Sometimes the lead to a fine Group-winning galloper like Kingman can take it out of a horse but John Gosden speaks fondly of him and reckons he can do well in his own right.
A measure of Dick’s situation here is that he was beaten only a length by Aussie Reigns, giving 6lb over 1m 4f, with Cheshire Oaks winner, Banoffee, in third. That was just three starts ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.5pts win FASHION LINE and 3.2pts win HIGH TIME TOO (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 1.5pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) COMPLICIT and 3pts win (stakes saver) ERTIJAAL (2.55 Lingfield)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) LITIGANT (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 3.5pts win STEPPER POINT and 3pts win VALBCHEK (4.05 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win CAPTAIN CAT and 1.8pts win and place ANACONDA (4.40 Lingfield)
BET 8.5pts win GRANDEUR and 2pts win and place DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE (5.20 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Ertijaal (2.55 Lingfield) and Litigant (3.30 Lingfield)
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