DAQMAN THE MAGICIAN PLUNDERS CHESTER GOLD: Daqman hit the Roodeye running yesterday when he won 66 points on the first two races with a one-two in the Chester opener followed immediately by a successful double whammy of gold-value winner Magician and a lay on the favourite.
WON 9-4 (from 7.6) His pick at 7.6 on BETDAQ in the morning was the gamble of the day Captain Bertie, beating his second choice, Chosen Character (2nd 15-2).
WON 13-8 Magician, winning lay Contributer (2nd 9-4), another perfect punting combination.
THEN IT ALL WENT WRONG: BUT WHY NO STEWARDS’ INQUIRY: It all went wrong when Memphis Tennessee failed to run his race in the Ormonde Stakes, beaten 35 lengths: ‘Why no Stewards’ inquiry?’ asks Daqman; ‘the punter is entitled to know why such a hot favourite flopped.’ He ended up winning 25 points at Chester.
1.50 Haydock What’s this jumping game? Maybe I remember enough to know that it’s hard to carry weight over 3m; if it’s soft ground, because it’s a burden; if it’s fast, because the lightweights can fly.
But you still wonder whether Battle Group, who made a laughing stock of the handicapper twice in the week at Aintree, has finished improving, even hiked to 146.
There were some huge offers on BETDAQ this morning: Pateese (18.5) was third last year for a stable which has won the race twice in the decade. The Pipes have the best record and Weekend Millionaire (29.0) scored at Taunton in April though it puts him on a highish mark.
Double Ross (39.0) was third in the Swinton Hurdle on today’s card last year. Everything depends muchly on whether the rain arrives and, if so, in any quantity.
Whisky Yankee and Cucumber Run don’t want much rain. And all wins for the favourite, Darley Sun, who hasn’t scored since he took the 2009 Cesarewitch winner, have come on a sound surface.
This is a really hard race. Apart from the other novices, I can’t find a single horse that has failed to run well at this class-2 level or higher (not a one). But Battle Group (9.4) may yet be a higher level.
2.20 Lingfield Oaks Trial This hasn’t been a Classic pointer since the 1970s and the great days of Sir Noel Murless and Capt Ryan Price, though Sir Henry Cecil has rescued it from obscurity occasionally with the likes of Midday.
But the three winners of this since Midday (2009) – she was second in the Oaks and three times Nassau Stakes heroine – have failed to secure another prize of any description; not a one.
Secret Gesture, from a stable which targets this race – winner and two more placed in the decade – is related to Derby and Arc winners, and will welcome the rain if her Newbury romp in heavy is anything to go by.
Miss You Too looks exposed and Alta Lilea has twice failed already at Listed level, while Heroine Required is so easy to back this morning (9.0) that you can’t!
2.40 Ascot On this day last year, Main Sequence was winning the Lingfield Derby Trial, subsequently not disgraced when second to Camelot in the Blue Riband at Epsom.
He’s been gelded and is four lengths ahead of Thomas Chippendale on York form with ‘Tom’, in turn just about holding Ektihaam, the 2012 Dante runner-up, on their reappearance.
If you have a strong fancy, 101% on BETDAQ means you are in a punter-friendly zone in the orange. As for me, I’m putting Main Sequence in my commission-free Daq Multiples.
2.55 Lingfield Derby Trial Aidan O’Brien swept up the Chester trials with Ruler Of The World and Magician, leaving everyone debating as to which is the better horse: today and tomorrow he will add Nevis and Battle Of Marengo to the pot.
Here’s Nevis in another match between Ballydoyle and the in-form Luca Cumani, who came out on top with Mount Athos yesterday. Mount Athos looked good but why no Stewards’ inquiry into the abysmal performance of Memphis Tennessee, beaten 35 lengths. The punter is entitled to know why such a hot favourite flopped.
Aidan O’Brien didn’t get around to winning this Lingfield trial until 2008 and his two (back-to-back) winners never won another race. It suggests that Nevis isn’t likely to feature at Epsom.
He was 14 lengths adrift of Derby favourite Dawn Approach in the National Stakes as a two-year-old, but still better than anything else in this race achieved.
He was officially a stone in front of Greatwood at the end of their first season and one thing you have to decide today is whether Greatwood deserves his hike of 19lb for running second to Windhoek in the Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket last month.
Windhoek has won a Listed since but by beating only an 83-rated colt. The fourth horse in the Newmarket race, Havana Beat, was only an 85, which suggests that the piggy in the middle that day, Ghurair, third off 111, was running off an inflated rating.
Ghurair got that position for beating Havana Gold last October, and we’ve seen this year’s Craven (1 Toronado, 2 Havana Gold) made to look pedestrian in the Guineas.
Toronado was an almighty flop running to about 113, which makes Havana Gold realistically only worth 106 at the most.
I reckon it all points to Nevis here, assuming he has trained on. His pedigree is stamina packed, so I want to see Ryan Moore take them all on.
At 1.8 the lay Greatwood (I wouldn’t offer more than evens) and 3.6 in the orange about Nevis, I was willing to take on another dare this morning, expecting money for Nevis later in the day.
3.30 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) The stats say don’t bother with horses over the age of seven (in terms of winners, they are 1-26 since 1987), nor with those carrying more than 11st 5lb (1-15 since 1998).
On both counts that knocks out the Nicky Henderson favourite, Forgotten Voice, but Nicky is more worried about rain on top of watering.
Forgotten Voice has never won a race with the word ‘soft’ in the going return (not a one!) and I don’t think he’s going to be beaten up – not with that weight – if conditions turn against him.
Rain would also turn over the improver Turn Over Sivola, warns trainer Alan King in the trade paper this morning.
But Forgotten Voice and Turn Over Sivola are standouts on form and I know I’m getting value because the BETDAQ-orange offers total only 109% against last year’s Total SP of 129!
The way I’ll use that leeway in the offers is to spend a bit more to cover the chances of rain: Barizan (14.5) is not ground dependent and Paul Moloney riding a lightweight appeals.
3.50 Ascot (Victoria Cup) The lessons in the stats are that you need a comparative youngster (8-10 to horses aged four and five) and he must be fit from a race already this season (9-10).
Six out of 10 winners have come from single-figure stalls, and Tartiflette may hold the key to the William Haggas runners, which catch the eye here.
Tartiflette beat Cape Classic at Haydock but will find it difficult to hold him on revised terms. But, what’s this, Adam Beschizza switches to Cape Classic, with Paul Hanagan booked for Well Painted.
Well Painted was favourite under Beschizza when, hampered in sixth, giving 10lb to Tartiflette last backend. There’s a 9lb turnaround in the weights today and Well Painted (drawn 9 and 18.5 on BETDAQ this morning) won first time out last season.
I cannot see why Cape Classic is shorter than Well Painted. But it was 13.5 the field this morning, so don’t let me put you off anything you fancy.
Of those that have had a run, Glen Moss (19.0) met some of these as a useful three-year-old and had some more of them behind at Kempton recently. Looks on a handy mark for a good handicap season.
4.00 Lingfield Ultrasonic has been working really well at home. I got several of Stoute’s right until Russian Realm let me down on Monday, and the yard has scored 7-16 in the last 10 days.
What worries me is her bridesmaid look: she’s run three Listed seconds in a hood since its first application helped her win a Newmarket handicap on the soft.
Her rider, Ryan Moore, points out to Sporting Life readers that this Group 3 isn’t very strong for the level.
But City Image, Intense Pink, Exactement and Lily’s Angel have already won in the pattern, and I’ve always been a fan of the prolific ‘Angel’, who is rated 4lb superior to Ultrasonic and has won on firm and good to soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win BATTLE GROUP (1.50 Haydock)
LAY 10pts GREATWOOD and (GOLD VALUE) BET 7.6pts win (nap) NEVIS (2.55 Lingfield)
GOLD-VALUE BETS: 5pts win FORGOTTEN VOICE, 2.8pts win TURN OVER SIVOLA and 2.2pts win BARIZAN (3.30 Haydock)
BET 1.6pts win and place GLEN MOSS, and 1.7pts win and place WELL PAINTED (3.50 Ascot)
BET 6.6pts win LILY’S ANGEL (4.00 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE (1pt stake): MAIN SEQUENCE (2.40 Ascot), NEVIS (2.55 Lingfield), SECRET GESTURE (2.20 Lingfield) and SALUTATION (4.30 Nottingham)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An above-average day at Ascot and Haydock, so Daqman’s stakes at those meetings are raised to win 30 points on each bet, but remain at the basic level, 20 points, for the trials meeting at Lingfield. His lay is not a banker, but the old 10-pointer. Yesterday’s profit: 18.35.
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