DAQMAN’S BANKER BANGKOK IS CHAMPION ON DAY OF PROFIT: Daqman made a Good Friday profit of 22.75 at yesterday’s Lingfield AW Championships with three winning bets, and he also opposed an odds-on favourite with his Lays Logic.
WON 5-6 BANGKOK (nap)
WON 7-2 RANCH HAND
WON (3rd) 18-1 BRIAN THE SNAIL from 31.0 BETDAQ, 7.6 place
WON (unplaced) 4-5 INDIE ANGEL, Lays Logic
SUPER SATURDAY BETDAQ VALUE AHEAD OF NATIONALS WEEK: Daqman keeps stakes low ahead of a week of two Grand Nationals on Monday and Saturday. Musselburgh’s wide-open betting is the more so because BETDAQ has low overrounds this morning (103% in the Queen’s Cup for example) so, whatever you back, you have value for money and no commission. Headlines:
🔹 HIGH STALL A WORRY FOR STONE
🔹 HOLLIE KNOWS THE COLONEL WELL
🔹 ECLIPSE FIRST THE REST NOWHERE
🔹 DARK HORSE FOR A DOYLE DOUBLE
🔹 GREAT CHANCE FOR BALDING AGAIN
HIGH STALL A WORRY FOR STONE
⭕ 1.50 Musselburgh (Silver Arrow) The last time this race was run (in 2019), Three Saints Bay (stall 3) won it easily from Hayadh (4).
And last autumn, Three Saints Bay (again drawn 3) was runner-up, giving 7lb, to Marshal Dan (from the one stall).
Bay’s draw luck has run out today; he has to come out of gate 9, while Molls Memory (1), Marshall Dan (2), Hayadh (3) and Muntadab (4) are installed where the winners come from.
Hollie Doyle attracts me to soft-heavy winner Molls Memory but the drying ground drives me away again. Maybe it’s Marshal Dan’s turn at 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
Lays Logic A high stall did not prevent a gamble overnight on Stone Soldier (in 10), presumably because his three out of four through the ranks on the sand at Southwell has pushed his AW rating to 100, and they expect his turf form to follow. Not guaranteed from that draw.
⭕ 2.05 Haydock Vision Du Puy beat nothing well at Stratford the last day – her first win in almost two years – and she now has to prove she can hold her new-found form.
Getting 13lb from Shantou Express will help but, if Shantou is back to his form of last autumn – dual winner by a total of 35 lengths – he will be hard to beat.
Dino Velvet is living off his 2019 second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle; and has nothing much to show in 13 outings over two years. Chti Balko needs a downpour.
HOLLIE KNOWS THE COLONEL WELL
⭕ 2.25 Musselburgh (Royal Mile) The Press experts want us to back Naamoos but his stablemate, Forest Falcon, is the one for the money; new favourite this morning.
Paul Hanagan picks Strike Red but Richard Fahey, winner of the race twice in the last three runnings, also saddles Ventura Mutiny.
This dual stable play is a double no-no for the serious punter but I don’t want to forfeit a bet in the challenge to Pricewise.
The one the handicapper may have underestimated is Colonel Faulkner (BETDAQ 4.9), who beat a big field under Hollie Doyle in France. She was a bit unlucky on Mighty Gurkha for the same stable yesterday, vulnerable to the late charge of the winner.
ECLIPSE FIRST THE REST NOWHERE
⭕ 2.40 Haydock Crossley Tender has been climbing to a new level, and was narrowly beaten in the Eider Chase, albeit getting plenty of weight. High in the weights now but his form (11123132) suggests another brave effort.
Checkitout has an unattractive head carriage. It didn’t stop him landing back-to-back wins, bridging the gap between class 4 and class 2. But a total hike of 13lb might have found his limit.
Sue Smith is in her best form for some time and Silva Eclipse scored on his second chase start at Sedgefield the last day. You can call him unexposed, or you can say he does not yet have the experience! I had a bit of 8.2 in a muddling and open race.
Alan King, who has won two of the last three runnings of this, tries to take it back to back with Mahlermade but the gelding has nothing much to show for two years’ work since then.
My man in the long grass tells me that they hope he will surprise as he did when he won the race before! He was 45 lengths behind Defuture Is Bright at Fakenham last month.
Lays Logic Only three finished and the favourite fell, so the handicapper wasn’t impressed and thought it worth only a 2lb rise for Defuture Is Bright. But clearly punters were greatly impressed and made him 5.0 favourite when Debece came out this morning.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE 11.5 Crossley Tender, 8.2 Silva Eclipse
DARK HORSE FOR A DOYLE DOUBLE
⭕ 3.00 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint Cup) Michael Appleby has won this two years running, in 2018 with Caspian Prince (stall 6), who likes to get on with it. He and Jabbarockie (10) are expected to create a fast pace.
That could help Hollie Doyle again on Came From The Dark (from 7), who finished late to beat Count d’Orsay at Haydock in September before soft ground stopped his progress.
He doesn’t like it firm either, so today’s drying ground, still with some ease in it, seems perfect.
The Count d’Orsay form puts Justanotherbottle in the thick of it but he often rears in the stalls and could leave the race behind at the start.
The stats recommend something aged five or six, with a light weight (8st 3lb to 8st 8lb is four from six), and Son And Sannie is said to have improved over the winter. High stalls have a good record in this.
Betdaq value 7.5 Came From The Dark, 14 Son And Sannie
GREAT CHANCE FOR BALDING AGAIN
⭕ 3.35 Musselburgh (Queen’s Cup) Stepping up from a class-3 strike at Chester, Diocletian ran third in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock (class 2) and has scored over hurdles since.
Mark Johnston runs five; another fine mess for punters. A total rise of 25lb for a hat-trick in the autumn seemed to take the wind out of Trumpet Man.
Kings Advice and Themaxwecan perform best on firm ground;. Hochfield is a summer horse. So I think we’ll swerve Johnston altogether..
Nate The Great has been a nearly horse on AW as on turf ,though gelding and being switched to Andrew Balding produced his first success – 2m at Wolverhampton) since 2018. Balding landed me a double yesterday.
Betdaq value 6.0 Nate The Great, 16 Diocletian
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Musselburgh (win 10)
BET 2pts win MARSHAL DAN
2.05 Haydock (win 10)
BET 4pts win SHANTOU EXPRESS
2.25 Musselburgh (win 10, nap)
BET 4pts win COLONEL FAULKNER
2.40 Haydock (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win SILVA ECLIPSE
BET 2pts win CROSSLEY TENDER
3.00 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 3pts win CAME FROM THE DARK
BET 1.5pts win SON AND SANNIE
3.35 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 4pts win NATE THE GREAT
BET 1.25pts win DIOCLETIAN
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