THERE’S A BEAUTY ON BETDAQ IN THE LOCKINGE: Daqman finds that every single Saturday feature race at Newmarket and Newbury has the punter-friendly BETDAQ-value credentials, which means he bets to win 30 points every time, including his Lockinge pick, Beauty Parlour.
9-2 DAQMAN ROCKS AT AINTREE: Daqman missed the boat on the final day at York after two winning days but made a strong case for Championship (WON 5-2) at Newbury and secured a profit at the Aintree BETDAQ meeting, thanks to Party Rock (WON 9-2). A third winner on the day was Pavlosk (WON 3-1)
367 POINTS PROFIT IN SEVEN DAYS: He’s looking for another winning streak after a magic May so far with 137 points in two days (May 5 and 6), 115 in four days (up to May 2) and 115 again but on just one day, last Saturday, May 11.
1.30 Newbury When Ballydoyle came to challenge Frankel in the Lockinge (3.50) a year ago on this card, Joseph O’Brien picked up spare rides for William Haggas in this and the 4.25 maiden. Both won.
Before his Lockinge mount, Excelebration, inevitably saw a rear view of Frankel – second to the champion for the fourth time – Joseph took the opener on Haggas’s racecourse debutant, Valiant.
This year Haggas and O’Brien team up with Dare To Achieve, who has had a run: he was sixth in a big field at Newmarket. Three of those in that race have since broken their duck.
You wouldn’t hold it against him that Chester wasn’t right for Russian Realm and he works like a winner at home.
1.45 Newmarket Another interesting jockey booking, as Rae Guest – top of the Inform trainers in the Racing Post – employs Mickael Barzelona (on Poisson d’Or) for the first time.
Four-year-olds have won this five years running, two of them trained by Andrew Balding who puts blinkers on Sea Soldier. Hometown Glory is having ‘his’ first run since being gelded. Too hard for me. Pass.
2.05 Newbury Tearaways Chiberta King and Harris Tweed – Gallipot and Viking Storm have also front run – may set this up for Jehannedarc, who has the triple benefits of a run under her belt, no pattern penalty and the in-form Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Jehannedarc is 11lb better of for two-and-a-half lengnths with Gallipot and I see Harris Tweed (goes well fresh) as the covering bet.
2.20 Newmarket This is another race on the card in which Andrew Balding has secured back-to-back wins since 2009, and Taglietelle (sire gets soft-ground winners) has always gone well for a boy: 33.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Mubaraza has been passed from an out-of-form father, John, to in-form son, Ed: not punished when favourite, hampered badly start, behind Desert Recluse at Kempton: 10.5 is value.
The gelding op needs to have made a big difference to Tiger Cliff, who leaps two grades and is no ‘snip’ at the weights. Perennial ran modestly in the pattern last year and, when dropped into handicaps, fared no better (behind Taglietelle at Newmarket in September).
Rain would see Biographer backed: he has it all to do against Caravan Rolls On, through a line with Sir Graham Wade, but ‘Caravan’ has no form with cut in the ground and the stable is doing nothing at the moment.
2.40 Newbury James Fanshawe, who won the big sprint at York this week with Society Rock, is adamant that we haven’t seen the best of Hallelujah, 13.5 on BETDAQ.
The obvious threat is Modern Tutor: Sir Michael Stoute has a 33% strike rate when applying headgear (to his horses, that is).
2.55 Newmarket Lightweights have a lean time in this: only once in eight years has the winner carried less than 8st 12lb., and the last five have carried 9st or more.
Rain would dramatically alter the market, which this morning was based on the firm-ground success of Secretinthepark over Brazen, Purcell, Shadaroba, Bapak Sayang and Vallarta – they finished in that order – over CD a fortnight back. But that was on firm ground.
Chilworth Icon, Hasopop and Melody of Love (26.0 on BETDAQ) have all three run in the pattern and all – either on breeding or performance – are likely to appreciate rain.
Rain is forecast and a low draw seemed to be implied yesterday, so I’ll take the Kyllachy colt Brazen (6.6) to reverse form with Secretinthepark on revised terms.
He came too soon and gave way to ‘Secret’ by hanging on firm ground. Kyllachys get their best results on the soft.
3.30 Newmarket What a collection of losers! Dropping down to the bottom rung of the pattern are Correspondent (from 11th in the 2,000 Guineas), Dundonnell (Craven Stakes 3rd of 4) and Exactement (Nell Gwyn fourth), their redemption mission blocked by an improver, Baltic Knight, who acts with some cut and is likely to make them work hard from the front.
Music Master (10.0 this morning) is lightly raced and could step up for Henry Candy who won this with a similar type two years ago. In fact, five of the last six winners have been emergent animals turning over the pattern-race flops.
3.50 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) Four-year-olds, currently on five out of six in this, have Declaration Of War, Fencing, Trumpet Major and Beauty Parlour as picture cards in a very strong hand today . But which is the ace?
Beauty Parlour goes well fresh, gets the fillies’ allowance, and will love a drop of rain. She is the only English Group-1 winner in the field. I don’t rate Amaron’s Group-1 win in Italy; it was poor quality.
The rave notices are for Declaration of War but both he and Fencing come to this on the back of only Listed success. Sandown Mile winners (Trumpet Major) have a poor record in the Lockinge.
4.25 and 5.30 Newbury Joseph O’Brien, who rides Saxon Soldier (5.30), won the 4.25 on Well Painted last year, and has another interesting spare, Prince Of Arabia (24.0 on BETDAQ this morning).
Ralph Becket and Jim Crowley, who won it two years running before Well Painted, team up with the Pivotal filly, Quintet, who would be the bet if the heavens open.
DAQMAN’S BETS
VALUE BETS: 6.8pts win DARE TO ACHIEVE and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) RUSSIAN REALM (1.30 Newbury)
VALUE BETS: 5.3pts win (nap) JEHANNEDARC and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) HARRIS TWEED (2.05 Newbury)
VALUE BETS: 5.7pts win BIOGRAPHER, plus 3.1pts win MUBARAZA and 0.9pts win TAGLIETELLE (2.20 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 5.3pts win MODERN TUTOR and 2.4pts win HALLELUJAH (2.40 Newbury)
VALUE BETS: 5.3pts win BRAZEN, 1.2pts win MELODY OF LOVE and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) SECRETINTHEPARK (2.55 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 8.3pts win BALTIC KNIGHT and 3.3pts win MUSIC MASTER, plus 5.2pts (stakes saver) DUNDONNELL (3.30 Newmarket)
VALUE BETS: 4pts win BEAUTY PARLOUR and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) DECLARATION OF WAR (3.50 Newbury)
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