125-1 BIG-RACE DOUBLE BID BY DAQMAN: There’s a pre-Christmas feast with the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and the (ex-Hennessy) Ladbrokes Trophy on an action-packed Ladbrokes card for the second day running at Newbury, where a 40-1 shot beat the hot-pots yesterday. Daqman tips at 15.0 on BETDAQ and goes for a 125-1 big-race double with an 8.4 offer at Fairyhouse.
‘LOST’ IS FOUND FOR TWO OUT OF TWO: Daqman had three returns from two winners and three seconds on the opening day of the Ladbrokes’ Newbury carnival, winning the first two races with two bets:
WON 9-4 LOSTINTRANSLATION
WON 4-1 BIGMARTRE
NEWBURY KEY TO 500-WINNER LANDMARK: It could be argued that his profit from a win and place Jameson (2ND 8-1) counts in the challenge to Pricewise but Daqman, currently 5-0 up, insists that only ‘clear winners’ should count as he approaches 500 against his arch-rival (two more needed). Today: 1.50 and 3.00 Newbury. It’s more double action!
ROC REMAINS BIG VALUE ON BETDAQ
3.00 Newbury (Ladbrokes Trophy) Class wins this former Hennessy Gold Cup – like Denman, Bobs Worth, Many Clouds – and the ratings suggest that today’s renewal is around about their standard at the time.
Well supported at fancy prices during the week, Vyta Du Roc, sixth last year (3lb lower now), is better off now with the runner-up, Carole’s Destrier, and third horse home, Double Ross.
Nicky Henderson’s grey just failed to get up in the Sandown Gold Cup in April, flying at the finish and, though now 10-1 and 12-1 with bookmakers, was 16.0 on BETDAQ early mouse. He fluctuated to 14.5, so I’m charging a bet to the account at 15.0.
Five horses have had winning preps. Of those – Total Recall, Whisper, A Genie In A Bottle, Present Man, Cogry – only Present Man and Whisper have won a Grade 1 or 2 chase (10 out of 10 winners had), but Whisper, along with Coneygree and four others, is too old on the stats. Present Man prefers a clockwise track.
Also against Present Man, Vyta Du Roc and Braqueur d’Or (one of my horses to follow but only six years old), is that only two winners in the decade have carried less than 11st 1lb. And the last five winners have all been set 11-1 to 11-6.
Willie Mullins’ Total Recall is ‘deadly like an elastic band’, declared Ruby Walsh, after they won the Ladbrokes Munster National. He has been raised 18lb but still carries only 10st 8lb.
American has a lot to do after 259 days off (we’ve just had another sequence-winning absentee, Thistlecrack, burn our fingers), and Singlefarmpayment seems to reserve himself for Cheltenham.
In the belief that the form pendulum swings this to the lower end of the handicap, my vote goes to Vyta Du Roc (value) and Total Recall (solid). The rest of the day.
CAP AND CORTON FOR THE MULTIPLES
12.10 Newbury (Ladbrokes Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle) Three consecutive favourites have won this and Cap Soleil will be a short price to make it four, a hub for your Daq Multiples.
He was a winner over the Newbury CD last month, impressively beating in second and third two horses which had both won three times in their previous four races.
The third home was Dame Rose, who tried to make all but was well outpointed, more than 11 lengths, by the winner, with a further seven lengths to Monar Rose.
12.45 Newbury (Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase) This race usually throws up a good ‘un, not the least of them Thistlecrack last year.
It was Colin Tizzard’s third success in this in the decade, matching local rival Paul Nicholls, but Colin’s Elegant Escape is well held by Paul’s Black Corton on collateral form.
Black Corton will be a price today because of the possibly deceptive runaway win at Southwell by Fountains Windfall. Another Multiples fancy.
YES! NAME ME A McMANUS GAMBLE..
1.25 Fairyhouse De Name Escapes Me but I think it’s J P McManus closing in on another Graded prize here, with one primed for the occasion (and first-time tongue-tied) by Noel Meade, who has just hit form (3122 after third in the Troytown last weekend).
De Name Escapes Me threatened to be a plunge horse this morning, backed in from 11.5 to 8.4 in the BETDAQ orange. As I and another greedy mouse gobbled that, the offers ceiling dropped to 7.4.
1.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle) County Hurdle fourth, Air Horse One, ran in hot company on his reappearance at Ascot a month ago Three big winners have come from the race.
Master Dancer is up 12lb and Old Guard’s best form is over shorter. Highest matched for Air Horse One this morning was 5.3.
2.10 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle) The champion, Bouveur d’Air, has frightened off all within a stone of him after six wins in a row, including three Grade 1s.
It would be 12st Buveur and 10st 13lb Irving if it were a handicap, and there would certainly be more runners.
Once again, as with the chases I’ve criticised, these level-weights hurdles races are no good for punters, or to horses and trainers, except as public gallops for the stars (Who will learn what)?
This is gun law. They can always argue for keeping the weapon of conditions races, when a Beer Goggles remains capable of shooting down the high flyers at 40-1.
CHARLI IS MY BETDAQ DARLING
2.25 Newbury (Ladbrokes Intermediate Gerry Feilden Hurdle) Charli Parcs is in my horses to follow, and Nicky Henderson seems to have the right race for him (see my comments yesterday), with four-year-olds 4-1 up, including two for Nicky in the last five seasons.
The SPs of the winners are remarkably similar: only one favourite but three at 7-2, two at 4-1 and one 9-2 in eight years. The 5.1 taken about Charli on BETDAQ this morning was spot on.
3.20 Newcastle (Rehearsal Chase) The 2015 winner, Wakanda, is just 2lb higher, and prepped well for this at Kelso in late October.
Bishops Road, third to Bristol de Mai in the Peter Marsh at the turn of the year, may be better than the bare form.
But there was a big word this morning for Beware The Bear, which took him to 4-1 or so at the front of the market. Again, the best could be had on BETDAQ: I took 6.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Fairyhouse (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 6.75pts win and place DE NAME ESCAPES ME
1.50 Newbury (win 30)
BET 7pts win AIR HORSE ONE
2.25 Newbury (win 30)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) CHARLI PARCS
3.00 Newbury (win 50 and win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win and place VYTA DU ROC
BET (win 30) 5.5pts win TOTAL RECALL
3.20 Newcastle (win 30)
BET 6pts win BEWARE THE BEAR
DAQ MULTIPLES (bankers: 4 x 3pts win trebles and 1pt win acca CAP SOLEIL (12.10 Newbury), BLACK CORTON (12.45 Newbury), BUVEUR D’AIR (2.10 Newcastle), CHARLI PARCS (2.25 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES (long shot): 1pt win double DE NAME ESCAPES ME (1.25 Fairyhouse) and VYTA DU ROC (3.00 Newbury)
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