AYR GOLD CUP: GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP A magnificent mix of Saturday racing from the two-year-old classic Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury to the Silver and Gold Cups of Ayr’s crazy cavalry charge. The Bronze sprint fooled punters yesterday but Daqman points out that there are big prices to be had all day if you keep your Daq up!
🔹 LOOK FOR A PIECE OF BETDAQ VALUE
🔹 KEEP EQUILATERAL ON YOUR SIDE..
🔹 9-2 SHOT TO BEAT THE BRIDESMAID
🔹 ‘KIKI’ COULD MAKE THE RABBIT RUN
🔹 LOW DRAW A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
🔹 GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP ZONE
STATE OF PLAY
Daqman 70, Pricewise 31 (Daqman profit + 370, Pricewise loss – 470)
Bulls-eye naps (7-15) 46% (252pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (22-33) 66% (132pts profit to 20-point stakes)
LOOK FOR A PIECE OF BETDAQ VALUE
Watch the markets I plumped for Lady Penelope in the Harry Rosebery at Ayr yesterday, as lightly raced and slightly better off with her Tipperary conqueror, Piece Of Paradise, but, when ‘Paradise’ was offered 20.0 near the ‘off’, she was crying out to be backed, and won at 16-1 SP, far too big, beating Lady Penelope, far too short at 3-1 favourite, less than half the BETDAQ odds (I published 9.0) when I made my selection in the morning.
Trust yourself! Decide what price you want and play the BETDAQ offers when they come around to your way of thinking whether in the morning, as I must do because of publication schedules, or later in the day when you’ve had a first helping of value.
If you were right early on and your horse shortens, further value may then emerge, and you can look back and say: ‘Wow! 20.0 about a horse within a length of the favourite ridden by in-form Chris Hayes!’ Only you’ll be saying it before the race.
KEEP EQUILATERAL ON YOUR SIDE..
1.45 Newbury (World Trophy) I’m sticking with Equilateral. Charles Hills aimed him high – at Palace House, and Kings Stand – and I was rewarded with a 9-4 nap on the last day, a Listed at Doncaster, a flat track he likes. Today’s course will also suit
At 4.5 BETDAQ offers, he is double the price of Dakota Gold, looking for a five-timer but rated only 2lb higher despite his winning run.
Hit The Bid is better off with Blue Uluru on form of more than a year ago. Blue Uluru, a front-runner, has run just the once since then, while Hit The Bid has raced from handicaps to Group 1 but unable to put many races together.
9.2 SHOT TO BEAT THE BRIDESMAID
2.00 Ayr With bridesmaid form-figures of 32032652253, Kynren has failed to catch the bouquet, despite seven places, since scoring on the soft at Redcar two years ago.
On this sunny day at Ayr, four times course winner Club Wexford (4-4, in fact) looks a solid place bet; he held Boston George eight lengths here in July. Irreverent is another Ayr winner and more lightly raced.
Hortzader is the improver, with a good effort in the Irish Cambridgeshire on the last day. Winning form on a sound surface and 9.2 on BETDAQ looked too big this morning.
‘KIKI’ COULD MAKE THE RABBIT RUN..
2.55 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) When Mr Kiki won at Yarmouth, race-readers said his victory was ‘workmanlike’; but there were ‘plenty of winners-in-waiting lurking just behind.’ In fact, none of those placed, or the also-rans, has won since.
So his reputation hangs on his Ascot fourth in July, when the winner was the now notorious Mums Tipple, subsequent 11-lengths Sales-race sensation. The Ascot runner-up and the fifth horse home have both won twice since.
Pierre Lapin (nicely named, since his dam is Beatrix Potter) beat nothing well at Haydock but is a highly regarded half-brother to the 2016 winner of this, Harry Angel.
Juan Elcano got as close to Gimcrack winner Threat at Doncaster as he had Threat’s stablemate Mystery Power at Newmarket. Impressor won very easily at Salisbury but I took a bit of 15.0 Mr Kiki, adding the place to cover my win bet.
LOW DRAW A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
2.40 Ayr (Silver Cup) There was a shock in store for punters in the Ayr Bronze Cup yesterday when the big gamble, Pendleton, and my bet, Big Lachie, from stalls 25 and 16, were first and second in the stands’ side group but well behind the far-side first four from stalls 9, 13, 7 and 12.
Four times in five seasons, the Bronze Cup result by stall has been matched in both today’s Silver and Gold. In 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2018, high-stall winners of Silver were matched by high-stall winners of Gold: 21-12, 26-19, 27-19 and 23-21. And 2015-16 low-number strikes also matched up: 4-8 and 8-8.
On a sound surface, you’d expect younger horses to score and, in fact, combining the two races, only four winners out of 20 have been older than five but only three have been three-year-olds. Just three favourites have won all told.
BETDAQ 15.5 offer Golden Apollo (coming out of gate 5) has slipped down 13lb lower than his 99 rating in the race last year. When he beat a big field at York in 2017, trainer Tim Easterby prophecied: ‘One day he’ll be an Ayr Gold Cup horse.’
I fancy Admiralty (from 15) to get across to the middle, where the action was yesterday. The drop from 7f may play to his strengths, a good finisher off a strong pace. I took 13.5.
Citron Major (17) has also won over 7f and the drying ground is in his favour, but until this race proves otherwise, we have to look more to the low-middle side to Golden Apollo and Alkaraama (out of 12), lightly raced and progressive for Sir Michael Stoute.
I’ve been hearing good words about Red Balloons (39.0) for a while now. If I ignore them today, the balloon might go up!
GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP ZONE
3.50 Ayr (Gold Cup) David O’Meara was well served by the draw for this, with his runners spread between stalls 7 and 17.
His highest drawn, Arecibo, had been getting money in the week (16-1 into 10-1) but Gulliver (gate 9) and Intisaab (7) were strongly supported last night.
Biggest hit on an outsider was for Hey Jonesy (22-1>12-1 and BETDAQ 11.0 this morning).
Visored first time and from lucky stall 8, which has produced the winner three times since 2012, one of them for Jonesy’s stable.
Laugh A Minute (gate 5) at 16.0 is another with first-time headgear. He wouldn’t have to improve any on his Group-3 second to Invincible Army in June.
Ger Lyons rates Buffer Zone a Group horse in a handicap. He was quite something at the Curragh on the last day and more progress could see him defy stall 21. He was my nap of the day until the draw stalled my enthusiasm a bit.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win (nap) EQUILATERAL
2.00 Ayr (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win HORTZADER
2.40 Ayr (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4pts win ADMIRALTY
BET 3.5pts win GOLDEN APOLLO
BET 1.25pts win RED BALLOONS
2.55 Newbury (win 30, win 10)
BET 2pts win and place MR KIKI
BET 3.5pts win PIERRE LAPIN
3.50 Ayr (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, win 30)
BET 5pts win HEY JONESY
BET 3.25pts win LAUGH A MINUTE
BET 6pts win BUFFER ZONE
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