SHADES OF TIPPING GENIUS: Daqman landed two win-20 bets in the AW Trials meeting at Lingfield yesterday for a profit on the day of 26.25 points. His staking plan had already covered the entire day with a first-race hit.
WON 3-1 SHADES OF SUMMER
WON 9-4 PENZANCE
BUT BIG MEETINGS ALL SURVIVE: Daqman has done three times the work today with three major meetings, so much harder to pull off a break even. An early nap at Newbury – passed fit after two morning inspections – could decide his fate.
FORTESCUE WELL IN FOR HARRY
⭕ 1.20 Newbury Harry Cobden’s booking for Fortescue by a stable in form catches the eye. A fine jumper, he’s an Ascot Class-1 winner who has twice traveled around Aintree over the big fences. Likes the ground and is well handicapped.
Highland Hunter copped a big weight as London National winner and Welsh Grand National second – both in December, 2021 – and can’t seem to shed the load.
Copperhead has been in the doldrums much of the time over four years now and Commodore has won only twice in five years. Secret Reprieve was one for the money early doors but was on the drift this morning.
BETDAQ value 4.8 Fortescue
HERE’S LOOKING AT YOU, KID
⭕ 1.42 Kelso Is the common cold, or whatever bug hit Constitution Hill, affecting more than one horse at Nicky Henderson’s?
His last nine runners in 10 days have finished PPP3PPP00, and the Lambourn yard is only 1-11 in the last fortnight, with its most recent winner 10 days back.
That’s presumably why Pentland Hills in this opening 2m 5f handicap hurdle has been a massive drifter to 11.5 this morning, when I was hoping he or Jango Baie (2.17) would give me some encouragement before my ante-post Henderson bet, Under Control, runs in the Morebattle Hurdle (2.50).
There was not much between Serious Operator and Pentland Hills on their one-two at Doncaster before Christmas, and Lucinda Russell’s seven-year-old is a CD winner at Kelso on good ground.
Many a punter in Scotland will be banking on Nicky Richards to open the scoring with a local winner in The Kalooki Kid, fourth to one of the Supreme favourites at Doncaster in a Grade 2 novices, after he completed an autumn double at Musselburgh and Newcastle.
Brewin’upastorm is 11 now but was ranked a good 10lb higher in his days of tackling the likes of Epatante, Dashel Drasher and Goshen, and was up against Bob Olinger the last day.
BETDAQ value 4.8 The Kalooki Kid
HE’S GREATWOOD HIGH FLYER
⭕ 1.55 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls won this three years out of four (2015-19) but we have to assume that whatever problem Kandoo Kid had in the Great Yorkshire has been solved.
Highstakesplayer is the reliable one on jumping; he can take a length out of them at the fences. BETDAQ 5.4 taken.
J’Etoile now has an ominous 12st and connections reach for a claimer, his sequence already broken, when a modest fourth at Cheltenham in late January.
Grandeur d’Ame was winning that Cheltenham chase when unseating at the last, but there’s no real rush in the market this morning to get the money back today.
CD-winner Heltenham was in good form when prepped for this at Kempton last week. BETDAQ 7.3.
NUBE NEGRA’S CHAMPION..
⭕ 2.35 Doncaster Dan Skelton won this 2m chase (class 2) with one of his youngsters last year but relies on veteran Nube Negra today.
He usually wins every autumn in a Grade 2 – three years in a row – but was placed without winning before Christmas, also taking on Jonbon in the Tingle Creek.
He’s dropped several rungs down the ladder here into a class-2 handicap, with first-time cheekpieces, but that means giving weight all round.
Tommys Oscar (110) and Malystic are CD winners on today’s course but I think this should be viewed as Nube Negra’s Champion Chase; he was second in the real thing at Cheltenham 2021, then won two Shloer Chases in a row. BETDAQ 6.3
EAGLE CAN TAKE CONTROL
⭕ 2.50 Kelso (Morebattle Hurdle) There were 40 left in this 2m handicap on Sunday when I recommended the sole J P McManus runner, Under Control, trained by Nicky Henderson.
She’s been in market control since then to do a double like The Shunter, J P’s 2021 winner of this who pulled off a £100,000 bonus in the Plate at the Cheltenham festival 12 days later, gambled on favourite in both races.
And since Sunday, Under Control has not only been Morebattle favourite but has been backed down to 8.8 on BETDAQ for the mare’s own double bid in the County Hurdle.
Kerry Lee is 4-4, still standing in the last 12 days and Richard Patrick, her jockey on Black Hawk Eagle, is 6-7.
Black Hawk Eagle is a real Trojan horse: it’s hard to tell what’s left inside him. He won on the Flat (heavy) and over hurdles (good) for Noel Meade, and is on a hurdles hat-trick for Kerry Lee today.
Up-in-grade Rewired likes the ground and may also have more left in the tank; Benson won this race last year (5lb higher now); and there’s nothing to choose between Ballygeary and Skycutter on their one-two at Bangor in December.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.3 Under Control, 6.5 Black Hawk Eagle, 19.5 Rewired
ROCK COULD THUNDER HOME
⭕ 3.25 Kelso This Premier Chase has produced two Grand National winners since 2010 in Ballabriggs (second at Kelso) and Auroras Encore (only fifth).
Monbeg Genius is the only Aintree runner in this today but has been off the track since third in the Newbury Gold Cup 91 days ago; record after a break in 2022 and 2023 was 44P.
Elvis Mail’s track record here is 1112224311 and his overall form last year, deleting failed attempts at Cheltenham, were 3311.
Another who struggled at Cheltenham, Thunder Rock still has a near-50% strike-rate and is a Grade-2 level chaser stepping up in trip under his last winning rider, Sean Bowen.
BETDAQ value: 5.3 Thunder Rock, 12.5 Elvis Mail
P..P..PLEASE FORGIVE THE LAD!
⭕ 3.40 Doncaster (Grimthorpe Chase) The sage old punter’s stock answer when told a stat like ‘no horse with 12st has ever won this’ was always: ‘Ah, but the horse doesn’t know that!’
The eponymous question apparent in the name, Does He Know, deserves its own answer: he soon will if it carries on raining!
In fact, Does He Know would be the first 12st winner in the 35 years of the Grimthorpe returns I’m looking at, and the two who carried 11st 12lb were legends: Grey Abbey (2004) and The Last Samuri (2016).
The front of the market has been easy to bet in this morning, with the only money horse, the outsider, Ashtown Lad, P-PP looking for a revival in cheekpieces.
Since two of those letters of shame were over the Grand National fences, and two were on soft ground, he can be forgiven ahead of this race if the ground remains good to soft, and the Skeltons insist he is still a National horse.
He did win the 2022 Becher Chase on good to soft, and races off the same mark today. BETDAQ 9.7 Ashtown Lad
Now you have to apply excuses to another set of letters, P-P3P beside Undersupervision, who comes alive in this race. He won it in 2022 and was beaten a neck last year. BETDAQ 9.7 Undersupervision.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Newbury (win 20, nap)
BET 5.25pts win FORTESCUE
1.42 Kelso (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win THE KALOOKI KID
1.55 Newbury (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win HIGHSTAKESPLAYER
BET 3pts win HELTENHAM
2.35 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 4pts win NUBE NEGRA
2.50 Kelso (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.75pts win and place REWIRED
BET 5.5pts win BLACK HAWK EAGLE
BET 3pts (stakes saver) UNDER CONTROL
3.25 Kelso (win 30)
BET 7.25pts win THUNDER ROCK
BET 2.5pts win ELVIS MAIL
3.40 Doncaster (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5.75pts win ASHTOWN LAD
BULL’S-EYE BET 5.75pts win UNDERSUPERVISION
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