TODAY’S AINTREE TRIAL VERDICT: HERE COMES THE JUDGE: The Grand National is today’s talking point, with two of the market leaders, Monbeg Dude and Godsmejudge, among Aintree contenders running in today’s Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster.
NEXT WEEK’S CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: DAY-BY-DAY GUIDE: Look out next week for our race-by-race guide to the Cheltenham Festival stats one week in advance, with all you need to mark your card for the handicaps.
DAQMAN’S YOUR MAN FOR THE BIG OCCASION: We asked how many big-odds winners Daqman had scored since his challenge match with Pricewice began. Here’s the top 10 from his 24 returns (Pricewise has had 8):
WON 20-1 TRIOLO D’ALENE (Hennessy Gold Cup)
WON 16-1 RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (Grand National Trial)
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN (Thyestes)
WON 8-1 LAST INSTALMENT (Irish Hennessy)
WON 6-1 SAPHIR DU RHEU (Lanzarote)
WON 6-1 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
WON 6-1 IRISH SAINT
WON 5-1 SYDNEY PAGET
WON 5-1 HEY BIG SPENDER
WON 9-2 CASTILO DEL DIABLO
Next question: How much more could you have won had you backed them on BETDAQ? Answer tomorrow.
If I ever need surgery, I’ll choose the horse doctors at Ditcheat. Wind and palate ops have transformed so many Paul Nicholls horses, I’ve lost count. It seems that champion lungs and champion breathing equals champion trainer.
And today’s a day the Ditcheat docs can earn their keep. Cowards Close in the first at Donny (1.45) has had his ‘wind sorted out’ (quote unquote the trainer) and, incidentally, gets 7lb from the odds-on Victor Hewgo.
And the Nicholls Grimthorpe runners Harry the Viking (breathing op in the summer) and Mon Parrain (palate recauterised) have also had wind ‘correction’.
If there isn’t a winner among them, then Nicholls must surely draw in the Greatwood Gold Cup. He’ll probably land the one-two, with Rebel Rebellion and Ulck Du Lin.
2.55 Doncaster With the ground riding on top, it will be hard for a 10-year-old to skip around Town Moor over two miles. Only two have tried it in the history of this race: last of nine and ‘pulled up’ for their pains.
If I delete the three 10-year-olds here from the 109% list in the orange, I can bet on every other runner (in an underround 100-70) and make a profit.
Simply Ned has shot up the handicap and Nicky Richards charges are running badly at the moment so, of the young horses, I’m taking Alan King’s Turn Over Sivola (5.1 on BETDAQ as I write), back to his right trip, sure to relish the good ground and better than the bare form as one affected before the stable shutdown.
Of the older horses, the same stable’s Lidar (8.4 offers) is also better than the record shows, placed in nine of his 11 chase starts and actually down a few pounds on his Graded and Listed form of 2012. Never out of the frame in four tries on Town Moor, he could bounce back.
3.15 Newbury (Ladbrokes Greatwood Hurdle) Philip Hobbs, in tremendous form with eight winners in the last fortnight – four out of six last weekend – has just the one runner all day today: Tigris in this one.
Tigris has looked progressive and loves today’s ground and his main rival in the BETDAQ market, Seventh Sky is from a yard which went through February without a winner.
Roman Flight wins only on good ground and his yard is also on the cold list, 59 days without success. Jumps Road is out of form, high in the handicap, and Tony McCoy describes Bodega’s chance as only ‘a squeak.’
3.30 Doncaster (Grimthorpe Chase) Though he’s Noel Fehily’s mount at Aintree, Grand National favourite Teaforthree will be ridden by Tony McCoy in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
That’s this morning’s news as all in this Grimthorpe bar Golden Call, Renard (has Cheltenham entries) and Harry The Viking (Kim Muir) have a date with destiny in the National.
But Night In Milan (number 72 on the card at Aintree), Court By Surprise (77), Real Milan (89) and Storm Survivor (92) are unlikely to get in.
Monbeg Dude (20.0 on BETDAQ for the National, as I write), Godsmejudge (25.0) and Wayward Prince (45.0) are the serious Aintree trialists here, all with the same weight difference today as in the National.
Monbeg Dude, who scoped badly and had to miss the Haydock Grand National Trial, is reunited with Paul Carberry today. The partnership had been third in the same trial last year after winning the Welsh Grand National. He’s 18lb higher now.
Godsmejudge skipped Haydock because of the heavy ground, after running badly at Sandown in December at the time Alan King’s horses were going wrong.
He’s only 9lb higher than for his Scottish National success last April, loves good ground and has Cheltenham Festival form, third in the 4m NH Chase before winning at Ayr.
Court By Surprise was narrowly beaten in the London National, in December with the 2013 Haydock Trial winner just behind him in third, but he ran badly in the Grimthorpe last season.
Storm Survivor’s position 92 on the card for Aintree suggests that today will have to be his National. He likes the sound surface.
If Harry The Viking could reproduce his NH Chase second to Teaforthree in 2012, he would be a certainty here off 10st 5lb. His form since is moderate but he’s dropped to a stone below his highest mark and it seems significant that his last two races have both been at Doncaster.
Both Harry The Viking and Mon Parrain have had breathing ops, which are so effective at Ditcheat, but Mon Parrain will need the race.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Alan King’s horses are super-resurgent, with his last six runners 321241 and 13 out of 15 still standing have finished in the first four since Balder Success won the Pendil last Saturday.
Godsmejudge (10.0 on BETDAQ) is around twice the price of Monbeg Dude yet, to my mind, Dude is more the tough warrior for Aintree and the Judge a fast-track stayer.
He has the ground in his favour and has risen in the handicap only half as much as his rival but, younger by a year, can show more improvement.
There is, of course, a doubt about whether either of them will want to bust a gut with Aintree the main target, and there’s another battle at the bottom of the handicap: Storm Survivor v Harry the Viking.
If anything ever looked laid out for a race it is ‘Harry’, 8.2 on BETDAQ, as I write. Preps here at Donny after the famous Ditcheat breathing op. Big drop down the handicap.
Revived in blinkers recently. The ground in his favour. And owner Sir Alex Ferguson has a day off to watch (I couldn’t watch Man U at the mo, if Sir Alex gave me his private seat! Now Sheffield United; that’s different).
3.50 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls’ form in this since 2006 is 12111011 but top-weights have had a bad run, with 11st 5lb the most that’s been carried to victory.
Rebel Rebellion’s age is also a worry – as is Dashing George’s 12 years – as there’s been only one successful above the age of eight in the decade.
However, it’s not a great field and the Rebel is blinkered first time. Last time he had aids fitted for the first time, he win the Grand Sefton in cheekpieces.
Ulck Du Lin is down 13lb on the start of the season but a combination of soft ground and today’s tongue-tie should see him find his form at last.
With no Cheltenham entries, this is Ulck Du Lin’s ‘Gold Cup’, and the race looks very much like producing a Ditcheat one-two.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each)
BET 7pts win TURN OVER SIVOLA and 4pts win LIDAR (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 15pts win (nap) TIGRIS (3.15 Newbury)
BET 3.3pts win GODSMEJUDGE and 4pts win HARRY THE VIKING (3.30 Doncaster)
BET 6.6pts win ULCK DU LIN and 5.7pts win REBEL REBELLION (3.50 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Cowards Close (1.45 Doncaster), Tigris (3.15 Newbury) and Hurricane Hollow (5.00 Newbury)
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