DAQMAN HITS 71 AGAINST PRICEWISE: Daqman beat Pricewise 2-0 at York yesterday when Arab Spring and Duke Of Clarence (win and place, 18.5 on BETDAQ) fought out the 2.15 and both made a profit. The Flat-season score is now Daqman 32, Pricewise 9, and it’s 71-21 overall since the challenge began.
DOUBLE ONE-TWO IN YORK HAT-TRICK: Daqman was bouncing back big time (after his Dante disaster) with a York hat-trick, in which his two bets in each of the first three races won and were placed, including first and third in the Yorkshire Cup:
ONE-TWO
WON 5-1 PATIENCE ALEXANDER
2nd 4-1 Tiggy Wiggy
ONE-TWO
WON 13-8 ARAB SPRING
2nd 14-1 Duke Of Clarence
ONE-THREE
WON 7-2 GOSPEL CHOIR
3rd 10-1 Tiger Cliff
STOUTE NAPPED TO KEEP UP THE CHASE
1.45 Newmarket Ollie Pears, who had his first turf winner of the season this week, sends well-prepared Zaitsev down from Yorkshire with Silvestre De Sousa booked: 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning
2.20 Newmarket This usually goes to an improving stayer: Mount Athos in 2012 and last year subsequent Ebor winner, Tiger Cliff, close third in yesterday’s Yorkshire Cup.
But it looks moderate this year and, if that’s the case, last season’s runner-up, Dark Ranger, might be good enough – 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning – though he is eight years old now.
Tropical Beat is another northern raider with a chance and I would consider Expert Fighter but the stable is winning mainly with its maidens and let us down yet again (with Bolingbroke) last night.
To say that Van Percy is a one-win-a-year type, who has already been produced to score in March, may underestimate him. He needed a stronger pace last time and this is only his second try at 14f. Stable won the race back to back (2009-10).
2.40 Newbury Plenty of negatives here: 7f is a particular trip at which half a dozen of these have failed so far; Morache Music, for instance, has had 24 races at 6f and only two at 7f (02).
Sir Reginald is also yet to win at today’s trip; Tellovoi is claiming class. Burano, Kenny Powers and Trader Jack have not won since breaking their maiden, always a bad sign.
Marcus Tregoning has made a poor start to the turf season (1-18) and, after two beaten favourites, the odds about five of his last six starters (between 16-1 and 66-1) suggest no-hopers and that Bronze Angel has a mountain to climb here over a trip too short.
Set The Trend (who has heart problems) has deteriorated from Listed to class-4, where Dream Walker’s form also resides. That’s Modern Tutor’s winning level, too, and I wouldn’t want slow-starting seven-year-old Monsieur Chevalier.
Chil The Kite, fourth in the Lockinge here a year ago, is fit from Dubai, but he’s a problem horse (blinkers and cheekpieces failed to work and have been discarded).
We don’t know how much Indignant has improved – if at all – over the winter. Fort Knox has won only on the soft, though is lightly raced and his CV could be disguised, since he drops from the Pattern.
A sound surface was ok for his brother, Dubawi Gold. Verdict: Fort Knox, a better price than he should be at 9.8 with early lemmings rushing for Bronze Angel.
2.55 Newmarket These are nearly horses in the Classic scheme of things: four of the last five winners finished in the first five at the Craven or Greenham Classic-trial meetings.
Aeolus, Parbold and Toofi fit the stats, and this Listed can be the making of one of them: we’ve had two winners and a third in the Jersey takes at Royal Ascot from the files of the last eight renewals.
Aeolus ran up to the Guineas winner, Night Of Thunder, last backend. He had an unlucky run in the Free Handicap but now has to meet the pacesetter that day, Parbold, on 10lb worse terms.
Parbold was always close to the heat last season: his juvenile form includes second in the Coventry, third to Toormore and third again to Astaire in the Gimcrack.
The snag with him is that sons of Dandy Man love some cut in the ground, and the forecast showers would be necessary.
Dorothy B, who had Alutiq behind in the Cheveley Park – the only two in this race to have attempted Group 1 – and was third favourite to win Sandiva’s Nell Gwyn but was badly hampered when close enough.
My predicament, as too often lately, is the ground. I shall take the 6.4 Dorothy B, who gets 5lb from the colts, and save on Parbold, in case conditions come right for him
3.15 Newbury (London Gold Cup) Time for a rethink on this one: it used to have big fields but this makes just seven or eight now for three out of four seasons.
It’s a three-year-olds handicap (see 3.30 Newmarket), in which the approach would normally be to look for those least exposed: Aussie Valentine, Windshear, Cannock Chase, Satellite.
Windshear hammered Collaboration at Sandown but was enjoying the soft ground. Cannock Chase and Satellite are bred for another half-mile! I shall ‘expect’ Cannock Chase (4.6 on BETDAQ) to win this and go on to better things.
Sir Michael Stoute fired with both barrels and landed a fantastic York double yesterday, and Cannock Chase is his only quality runner today and his only one outside maiden company until Tuesday.
3.30 Newmarket A sprint handicap for three-year-olds sounds like a one-armed bandit but, in fact, punters seem to have been well armed: only once in nine years has it slipped away from the best-backed horses to a double-figure price.
Roger Charlton likes to win it (2007 and 2012) and saddles Stomp, claimed off after a rise of a stone from modest events, and Stars Above Me, who raced too keenly when beaten by Nova Champ last time (Eaastern Impact, another free-goer, was behind).
The stablemate of the third in that race, Strategic Force, runs in this: name of Fear or Favour, but the runner-up to him at Bath, was only seventh to Stomp at Lingfield.
It’s a poor class 2, so Sleeper King and Expert, who were played in the Pattern as two-year-olds may follow Hasopop last year and win this off 9st 7lb.
Whatever wins he is sure to have had to catch Peterkin (25.0 on BETDAQ this morning). This brother to a Group-2 Aussie sprinter took a step forward when failing narrowly at Kempton. He keeps a similar mark but is down a stone at the weights.
3.50 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) This is a high-milers club for Group-1 flyers, such as Frankel, Canford Cliffs and Russian Rhythm in the decade, off ratings up to 140.
But it can have its moderate years (113 and 124 winners) and this has been one of them! Olympic Glory off 125 is half a stone clear of his field.
However, in a race the favourite wins 60% of the time, ‘Olympic’ is no certainty for the gold. Verrazano has probably been underrated at 117 as a Group-1 player in America and Chopin’s 115 looks mean as the colt who trounced the German Guineas runner-up eight lengths over 9f.
But he disappointed on firm ground at Royal Ascot (10f) after running seventh to Ruler Of The World in the Epsom Derby (12f). Is this return to a mile what he needs? Can dual Grade-1 dirt winner, Verrazano convert his ability to grass?
Aidan O’Brien thinks he can, witness no fewer than four more Group-1 entries, including two at Royal Ascot, where he could meet Chopin again in the Queen Anne Stakes, depending on how they take issue today.
Olympic Glory’s Group 1 wins have been on soft and heavy (rain is forecast but only showers), though it was a good performance when he split Moonlight Cloud and French Derby winner Intello at Deauville (good) in August.
VERDICT: It’s guesswork to choose Verrazano or Chopin; you can’t define the probabilities but 7.0 and 11.5 on BETDAQ, respectively, this morning look about right against a near-evens favourite.
With rain, I would be choosing between Olympic Glory and Chopin. But I will take a chance (a 6-1 chance) that Ballydoyle isn’t advised by leprechauns and wishful thinking.
Despite the usual O’Brien ‘he has to start somewhere quote’, and ‘the Queen Anne is the target’, (there I go reading the papers again!), I can take that chance, covered by a saver on Olympic Glory.
By the way, break-even savers don’t count in the challenge to Pricewise, but yesterday’s saver won money in its own right since we had another win with the place return from the 18.5 outsider.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated).
BET 1.9pts win ZAITSEV (1.45 Newmarket)
BET 7.2pts win VAN PERCY (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 2.2pts win FORT KNOX (2.40 Newbury)
BET 3.7pts win DOROTHY B and 1pt win (stakes saver) PARBOLD (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) CANNOCK CHASE (3.15 Newbury)
BET (to win 30 points) 1.25pts win and place PETERKIN (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 3.3pts win VERRAZANO and 3pts win (stakes saver) OLYMPIC GLORY (3.50 Newbury)
Daqman is the Betdaq name of a long-time winning tipster, professional gambler and racing writer. He is independent and has no association with this exchange or any bookmaker.
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