DAQMAN TO OUTGUN PRICEWISE AGAIN: Daqman leads Pricewise 54-20 on Flat-season returns so far, and today they clash in the 2.40 Newbury, and 2.50 and 3.30 Ripon, where Daqman finds 17.0 BETDAQ value in the day’s feature handicap, the Great St Wilfrid. Look out, too, for a 24.0 bet in the Consolation race.
HE HAS ENGLISH NAP AND U.S. BANKER: The Ripon race is a bull’s-eye bet (win 50 target) for Daqman, who has a nap at Newbury this afternoon and a banker in America on Arlington Million night. He’s had three naps up in six days, one a banker for a profit of 81 points to 20-point level stakes:
WON 11-4 Gothic (Sunday)
WON 100-30 Showstoppa (Tuesday)
WON evens Deauville Dancer (Thursday)
‘RED’ LETTER DAY FOR DUNLOP AT NEWBURY
2.40 Newbury (Geoffrey Freer Stakes) The bridesmaid all season, Pether’s Moon finally managed the bouquet for victory in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood, for which today’s race is a recognised follow-up. But a change of ground and tell-tall first-time blinkers are both worrying.
Third home at Goodwood, Café Society is better in at the weights now but was well held by Pether’s Moon that day and is also a winner only on a sound surface.
Pether’s Moon had Camborne behind in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but Camborne, who stepped up from handicapping to win a Group 3 on this very course last autumn, swerves York next week for this soft ground he loves.
Like Café Society, Red Cadeaux could go for the Melbourne Cup but is better in at the weights here than when second in this race in 2013 under a Group-1 penalty and Gerald Mosse is over from France for the ride.
Seal Of Approval, winner of the British Champions Fillies and Mares last autumn, and a winner at Newbury earlier, was disappointing in the Lancashire Oaks. Somewhat represents the Classic generation and is here as a St Leger test.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Thankyou BETDAQ layers for an overall 105% list in the orange this morning, which gives me hope but not conviction about an open race.
The change of going may undo Pether’s Moon,mwhile Camborne and Somewhat have something to prove, and Seal of Approval has to bounce back.
Ed Dunlop’s Red Cadeaux team is now back in top gear after a lean spell and the old boy could have got the lucky break here, with few wanting it soft and those who do not in the best of form. He is clearly aimed at the race, with Gerald Mosse booked.
3.50 Newbury Though Richard Hannon runs a Group-2 winner in Producer, Richard Hughes seemingly prefers Professor, though most of his winning form is at 6f, and he’s Listed level at best so far.
I think the ground hands it to Gregorian, third in the July Cup and Group-3 winner over Garswood on soft, though unable to cope with the bog heavy at Deauville which gifted Garswood a Group 1. A repeat win here would be quick compensation for Gregorian.
OVER THE MOON WITH 17.0 RIPON VALUE
2.50 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Consolation) High in the weights, low to middle in the stalls (gates 4 and 13 in the two years of this consolation. That’s the trend.
High in the weights because that’s where the quality is among the host that missed the cut, with a dozen runners here winners only of class 3, 4 and 5, and just three lengths in weight concession from top spot down 14 places on the card.
Front-runner who gets 7f on a turning track, Dr Red Eye, under Graham Lee, may last the trip and hold on for a place (24.0 the win on BETDAQ early mouse).
3.30 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Handicap) Only one winner of this in the decade has been drawn higher than 12. In fact, stalls 9, 10, 11 and 12 have accounted for six successes in the 10 years.
In those gates, I could not fancy Shropshire, whose Wokingham second has put him 9lb higher than he last won off two years ago.
Three-year-olds have taken this only once in 20 years, so Supplicant is suspect off a high mark, though George Chaloner’s claim helps, and the Kyllachy colt has scored twice on today’s course. Bondesire (11) also needs help from his boy rider’s allowance.
Declan McDonough comes over from Ireland to ride Tatlisu, third in the Stewards Cup Consolation and second in the Scottish version at Hamilton, both on firm ground.
Had he not been punished 4lb for those efforts, he would have missed the cut, so no complaints and he’s only four, so there could be more to come back to an easier surface. He gets further and a fast pace at Newcastle in June saw him produce a very strong finish.
Fast Shot and Pipers Note (up in grade) are the Ripon specialists, with Fast Shot the better drawn for a top handicap trainer but high in the weights because of back-to-back success in the Spring.
Intriguing that Majestic Moon (front-runner, gets 7f) and Out Do (hold-up horse, also stays further) are on the same side of the track in gates 2 and 4.
Tatlisu and Out Do are weighted to dead-heat on Hamilton form and wherever Fast Shot is Barkston Ash should be. It’s all very tight.
On past results, Out Do beats Fairway To Heaven and Kimberella, who are drawn on the high side, which would therefore have to hold considerable sway if they are to reverse the form. On that side, Spinatrix has his ground, holds a verdict over Fast Shot and is very lightly raced this season.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Out Do is in there with a fighting chance, which could be enhanced by first-time visors but it seems a last resort after a string of places without winning, and he can’t beat Majestic Moon on a line through Heavy Metal.
Majestic Moon looks sure to tow the low numbers into strike position on the far rail. He could, of course, hold on, as a 7f winner, dropping back to sprints, but the same yard doubles its chances with an eye-catching jockey booking for Tatlisu.
Spinatrix (gate 13) is close to the grouping of middle numbers which has done so well in this and has to be a saver, with Connor Beasley’s claim taking her weight down to the ratings level which saw her just miss out (badly drawn) in a race like this at Doncaster last backend after also running a neck second in this Great St Wilfrid. Placed nine out of nine at Ripon but rain would help her cause.
BETDAQ VALUE: Majestic Moon was terrific value for a breakfastime position on the race at 17.0, early mouse, which requires little more than 3pts to win 50. The 5.0 place looked equally tempting and I shall stake 5pts to win 20. I bagged 11.0 Tatlisu, though no better than he should be, which left me with Spinatrix as a single-point saver to cover the three other bets.
ADELAIDE BANKER AT ARLINGTON TONIGHT
9.45 Arlingon (American St Leger) The U.S. is low on quality for turf horses and for stayers, here facing a change of going from the firm on this track and at Santa Anita in June and July, and it could be the Big Kick into touch from English and Irish raiders.
Dandino won it last year and has clearly been primed for a repeat under Frankie Dettori, with Ryan Moore switching to the one-eyed Eye Of The Storm.
But I like the way that Havana Beat has come to hand at the right time, with success over further under his belt and star rider Joel Rosario in the saddle for a trainer near 50% with his raids on American soil.
10.15 Arlington (Secretariat Stakes) Ballydoyle’s Adelaide is literally a class apart here, second in the Royal Ascot Derby (Edward V11 Stakes) and the Belmont Derby here in America. Banker.
11.36 Arlington Million A cut above again for Ballydoyle and Aidan O’Brien. That’s how you can describe Magician. But you can also describe him as a twicer; unreliable.
I shall back the improving French contender, Smoking Sun, seen at home chasing great horses like Cirrus Ds Aigles and Treve, and abroad second in the International Cup, Singapore.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 except banker, unless profit target is specified)
BET 3.7pts win RED CADEAUX (2.40 Newbury)
BET 0.85pts win and place DR RED EYE (2.50 Ripon)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50pts): 3.1pts win MAJESTIC MOON and (to win 20) 5pts place, plus (to win 20) 2pts win TATLISU and 1pt win (stakes saver) SPINATRIX (all 3.30 Ripon)
BET 7.8pts win (English nap) GREGORIAN (3.50 Newbury)
BET 1.5pts win and place HAVANA BEAT (9.45 Arlington)
BANKER: BET 20pts win ADELAIDE (10.15 Arlington)
BET 4pts win on each SMOKING SUN and (saver) MAGICIAN (11.36 Arlington)
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