7-2 SONG THE ONLY ONE TO SING ABOUT: With ground conditions turned on the firm side, there was a monster bag of shock winners yesterday: 10-1 (three times), 12-1, 14-1 (three times), 16-1, 18-1, 25-1, 28-1, 33-1, 40-1 and even 150-1. Daqman clawed something back with getting-out stakes at Leopardstown, via Burren Song (WON 7-2).
SATURDAY BIG-RACE SPECIAL: Will Saturday be another day of turn-ups from a championship-level Lockinge Stakes, the London Gold Cup and the French Champion Hurdle, two of them on firmish ground, the hurdle on very soft? It’s a Saturday big-race special from Daqman with bets at 4.8, 6.0, 7.2 (twice), 9.4, 12.5 and 36.0
SUPERNAP TO WIN IN STYLE
⭕ 1.50 Newbury (6f) I’m supernapping unbeaten juvenile Noble Style, the Gimcrack winner, who was not disgraced in the 2,000 Guineas, now dropped back to an ideal trip.
Noble Style is rated more than a stone in front of second-favourite Shaquille, whose best form is on soft ground, but Aesop’s Fables could be a threat.
His good-ground form includes the Curragh Futurity and he was fourth to the Guineas winner Chaldean in the Dewhurst Stakes.
Cornwallis winner Rumstar and the progressive Rabaah should not be left out of calculations if you play the market nearer the time.
Betdaq value At first sight, Noble Style to win 8 for every 10, with 12.5 Aesops Fables a place for 18 from every 10.
HEAVY BETTING ON THELEME
⭕ 2.15 Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle) Heavy watering may have destroyed ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s hopes of Hewick adding to his amazing £440,000 two-year spree which has included Sandown Gold Cup, American Grand National and Galway Plate.
The forecast ‘very soft’ surface will suit last year’s one-two, Hermes Baie and Klassical Dream.
Theleme, a well-beaten fourth that day and usually in the shadow of Hermes Baie over today’s trip, got his revenge on heavy in the autumn gold cup (3m) here.
Klassical Dream and Asterion Forlonge, both trained Willie Mullins, were one-two last month, separated half a length in the Punchestown Champion Stayers’ Hurdle, but older horses – they’re both nine – don’t win this.
The course should suit front-runner Flooring Porter but this could be the big-time breakthrough for Emmet Mullins’ progressive Irish raider, Feronily, champion novice chaser at the Punchestown Festival.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.8 Theleme, 9.4 Feronily
MUTAANY IS A FIRM FANCY
⭕ 2.05 Newmarket I fancy we’ll see improvement in the Kingman filly Totnes (pronounced Tot-ness), who switches to grass after steady improvement on AW well punted the last twice. BETDAQ 5.4 after strong support.
⭕ 2.40 Newmarket Charles Hills has a strong team near home at Newbury today but pays the petrol for a one-horse box to Newmarket for Mutaany.
Both sire, Invincible Spirit, and dam’s sire, Acclamation, were top class and loved the firm ground, and Mutaany has a solid profile despite being readied for this step up in class on slow ground so far.
BETDAQ value Mutaany’s being labelled ‘drying ground could be an issue’ in the Racing Post Spotlight has helped us get 6.0.
7.2 BERTINELLI BIG VALUE
⭕ 3.00 Newbury (London Gold Cup) For years the far rail won this from stalls 1 to 3 (five out of six) until Headman (14), Bay Bridge (8) and Israr (12) came down the middle.
And yesterday the middle was again the place to be and this big field could also bring the stands’ rail into play.
It seems to be good news for Exoplanet (stall 16), who has won and been second here in his three starts for a stable which won this London Gold Cup with Defoe (2017).
The snag with Royal Rhyme (12) is that his winning form has been on the soft, whereas Aidan O’Brien’s Bertinelli and Bold Act will like the top of the ground.
Soft-heavy winner Desert Hero, the royal runner, was still favourite this morning, and there was money for Lieber Power for Oisin Murphy patrons but not for Loyal Touch, a big price for a Frankie Dettori owner.
BETDAQ value Bertinelli, related to an Oaks winner, seems sure to stay the trip, and could be a cut above the field, offered at 7.2 this morning.
PROSPERO’S BRAVE NEW WORLD
⭕ 3.35 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes) This is a championship mile held five months early, not on autumn ground but on a drying surface, likely to be good to firm.
The field should arrow down the middle with the low side usually gaining the advantage: eight out of nine winners were drawn 2 to 6, with four-year-olds dominant.
But the top two milers, both four-year-olds, both rated 121, are in stalls 12 (My Prospero) and 13 (Modern Games).
Late-developer Laurel is the right age (out of stall 5), taking in the Lockinge on the way to Royal Ascot in the manner of the Gosdens’ double with Palace Pier in 2021.
Jadoomi (from the one stall) could do with some rain but Chindit’s best form was when gamely holding off Mutasaabeq (good to firm) in the Summer Mile at Ascot last July.
Triple Time (stall 10), once thought a Guineas winner, scored back-to-back at Haydock on firm, separated by a year off and he’s had another long break.
Berkshire Shadow (7) is a star who lost his way, after running Guineas winner Coroebus to little more than a length at Royal Ascot, but he has bounced back, gelded, with a confidence-boosting double this Spring.
FORTUNE COOKIE: Listed winner at this time last year (1m good to firm) My Prospero is a Group-2 winner over 1m 2f and was only just held, third in front of Baaeed, behind Bay Bridge and one-time Derby winner Adayar for the Champion Stakes in October.
Modern Games opened last season by winning the French 2,000 Guineas, and closed it with a globetrotting double in the Woodbine Mile and the Breeders Cup mile, so he is by far the highest earner (£2.5m) in a very strong Lockinge.
BETDAQ value 7.2 My Prospero is a better offer than 5.4 Modern Games though rated equal. Berkshire Shadow (Oisin Murphy) big at 36.0
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newbury (supernap)
BET 20pts win NOBLE STYLE
BET 1pt win and place AESOPS FABLES
2.05 Newmarket (win 12)
BET 3pts win TOTNES
2.15 Auteuil (win 12 each)
BET 3pts win THELEME
BET 1.5pts win FERONILY
2.40 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 4pts win MUTAANY
3.00 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 8pts win BERTINELLI
3.35 Newbury
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win MY PROSPERO
BET (to win 40) 1pt win and place BERKSHIRE SHADOW
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
