10-1 DAQMAN ALWAYS AHEAD OF THE GAME: Daqman’s chances of another big preview hit (named on Thursday) were boosted for Cheltenham today when he tipped the same stable’s 10-1 winner yesterday. He also named his one-two for the Futurity at Doncaster when the second horse was 20-1. He’s now hoisted that one into top spot for the race because of the forecast heavy ground.
WON 10-1 SEDDON (Friday at Cheltenham)
LAKE CONDITIONS FOR THE FUTURITY: That’s a tip as well as a weather warning: the going at Doncaster and Newbury could be deep; watch out for non-runners. Headlines:
IT’S BISCAY WEATHER AT NEWBURY
HAMISH A SUPERNAP FOR HAGGAS
LAKE CONDITIONS ON TOWN MOOR
REXEM COULD BE A FORTUNE COOKIE
IT’S BISCAY WEATHER AT NEWBURY
⭕ 1.50 Newbury (Horris Hill Stakes) This is Group 3 compared with the Group-1 Futurity later on but has still been a useful two–year-old test over the years, with subsequent Greenham and Sussex Stakes winner Mohaather (2018) best of recent winners.
Grey’s Monument scored at Haydock and York in blinkers, and it’s Lays Logic that such a colt rarely fits into the Pattern, and is usually overtaken in the trials by winners with a good mind.
What’s also damning is that he beat the same horse into second twice (Spioradalta), one whose sole success was also with first-time headgear.
Grey’s Monument’s first defeat of Spioradalta was in class 4 and the handicapper put him up 10lb; when he beat the same horse again by further, giving more than before, he went up another 12lb, so Ralph Beckett was left with no choice but to go for stakes races.
His Beckett stablemate, Promoter, was eased down to beat subsequent Brighton winner Racingbreaks Flyer and could improve past Grey’s.
Striking Star, representing the champion stable, also wore headgear (a hood) as an aid to his impressive debut win, and Roger Teal (Caragio) won this in 2019.
Knight, entered for the Futurity after winning well at Yarmouth, has been pulled back a couple of grades for this.
But Lord Of Biscay gets my vote: he came from the back with the speed and purpose of a mature Group horse when winning at Yarmouth.
His sire won the French Derby in soft ground and he is half-brother to the new British mile champion, Bayside Boy.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.4 Lord Of Biscay
HAMISH A SUPERNAP FOR HAGGAS
⭕ 2.25 Newbury (St Simon Stakes) Usually results conform to age: only those specially-built for speed – sprinters – can normally outperform their age.
But, particularly over middle and long distances, there are late developers, maybe reaching the Pattern via handicaps; the well-worn phrase as you try to spot one: Is he a Group horse in a handicap?
Hamish is just such a case. Three years ago at the current Newbury meeting, he ran Trueshan to a neck when both were three-year-olds. What a one-two!
Trueshan, of course, has only recently won the Long-Distance title for the third time and is now rated 123. Hamish stepped up this year to win the Ormonde and the Cumberland Lodge, lining up off 117 today.
His trainer, William Haggas, has won the St Simon before with younger horses: Young Rascal in 2018 (off 116) and Ilaraab last year (off only 106).
One of the rivals to Hamish today is the ever-popular Euchen Glen, who won this aged seven in 2019. He’s nine now but will get his usual special reception from the crowd.
Danger to all is last year’s Irish Derby runner-up, Lone Eagle, locked on to Hamish because, off a 113 rating, he receives 3lb, so there’s officially a pound between them.
Passion And Glory beat Euchen Glen on the soft at Goodwood last summer, Euchen Glen giving 3lb.
From what he did then, and as a Listed winner at Sandown since), I can’t have Passion And Glory, and will hope for a bit of glory for nine-year-old Euchen Glen as he and Lone Eagle fight out the places behind Hamish today.
LAKE CONDITIONS ON TOWN MOOR
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster (Futurity Trophy). Daqman’s ratings: see Friday.
The ratings remain but rain changes my assessment of the Futurity; in fact, it strengthens the claims Of Aidan O’Brien to win this race for the 11th time, not so much with Auguste Rodin more with Salt Lake City.
Epictetus, out of a Selkirk mare, should also be ok on the ground, and has stable confidence for a place. That seems to be academic, as Salt Lake City is much better value for a place in the dead-eight.
1 Salt Lake City I have Al Riffa (115) riding high in my two-year-old ratings this season and, as runner-up to that colt, and Curragh soft-ground winner, Salt Lake City is too big at the offers, though in from a silly bookmaker quote of 20-1 before the final decs.
2 Epictetus The Kingman colt has done nothing wrong so far but may fall short of the O’Brien duo; it depends whether he acts on the ground.
Named after a philosopher who should be bedtime reading for British cabinet ministers: ‘It’s better to do wrong seldom and own up to it than to seldom admit you have done wrong,’ he declared.
3 Auguste Rodin The Guineas favourite won the Champions Juvenile at Leopardstown on soft ground but the form is weak and O’Brien admitted last night that the further rain would be against him.
BETDAQ value 10.0 Salt Lake City
REXEM COULD BE A FORTUNE COOKIE
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham Daqman preview: see Thursday.
Auguste Rodin is a Fortune Cookie on the Flat and I promised to include Rexem in my first 2022-23 Jumps list if he wins this today.
He’s been laid out for it, judged on the regular success in the race by the John McConnell stable, which won for me yesterday with Seddon at 10-1.
His yard took this novice hurdle with Streets Of Doyen (2020) and followed up last year with Bardenstown Lad (2021).
So it is that, with Rexem, McConnell goes for a race hat-trick with a horse going for a hat-trick in his own right, after scoring back to back over shorter trips in August.
No worries on stamina grounds: Rexem, by Leading Light out of a Definite Article mare, is a strong stayer who can quicken off a good gallop.
Saint Palais is another five-year-old braving the Cheltenham fences: he’s won at Newbury and Wetherby; that form and this morning’s money suggest he is a formidable opponent.
Paul Nicholls’ only runner at the two-day Cheltenham meeting is Shearer in a race the trainer has never won.
Described as a big, weak horse last season, Shearer needed cheekpieces to get off the mark over hurdles in a class–4 handicap, and kept them on for his reappearance win at Worcester over Red Happy, my winning tip when he followed up at Exeter on Tuesday.
BETDAQ value 3.8 Rexem
DAQMAN’S SATURDAY BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 7pts win REXEM
1.50 Newbury (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win LORD OF BISCAY
2.05 Cheltenham (win 20, win 12)
BET 1.5pts win LORD ACCORD
BET 4pts win THE HOLLOW GINGE
2.25 Newbury (supernap)
BET 20pts win HAMISH
3.15 Cheltenham (win 12)
BET 2.25pts win DADS LAD
3.35 Doncaster (win 50)
Bull’s-eye bet 5pts win SALT LAKE CITY
3.50 Cheltenham (each to win 12)
BET 2.5pts win SHOOT FIRST
BET 1.5pts win PANIC ATTACK
4.10 Doncaster (win 22 at 7.5 and 23.0)
BET 3.25pts win COUNT D’ORSAY
BET 1pt win COPPER KNIGHT
FORTUNE COOKIE
(3.35 Doncaster)
AUGUSTE RODIN
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