4-1 START TO DAQMAN DERBY TRIO: FIVE HAPPY DAYS SO FAR: The focus on analysis of three Derbys in yesterday’s Daqman got off to a winning start when he landed the 19-runner Apprentice Derby at The Curragh last night. It gave him at least one winner a day on all five days of the week so far, seven in all.
WON 4-1 BEYOND HAPPY (Curragh Apprentice Derby)
20 WINNING BETS AND 450 POINTS MORE THAN PRICEWISE: Now Daqman challenges Pricewise of the Racing Post with value selections for the Irish Derby and the Pitman’s Derby (Northumberland Plate). His current standings are:
DAQMAN 37, PRICEWISE 17
(Daqman + 210.14, Pricewise – 253.50)
SUPERNAPS 8-10 (80%)
LAYS LOGIC 9-13 (70%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 4-8 (50%)
THIS MAY BE A CHOUX IN AT 23.0
⭕ 2.05 Newmarket David Evans blooded a few noses among trainers and punters alike when Rohaan won the Wokingham.
Also at Royal Ascot, his well-related Choux was not disgraced in the Queen Mary behind the impressive Gavin Cromwell winner, Quick Suzy.
Lovely Mana has shown promise but cover is unlikely from the widest draw in a much bigger field than usual for this.
So I’m on Cachet for the burgeoning George Boughey stable. Down the field at Royal Ascot but trotted up on the other similar course here, the Rowley Mile.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 6.0 Cachet, 23 Choux
BLOW CAN SHATTER VASE FIELD
⭕ 2.55 Newcastle (Northumberland Vase) Like the Plate itself, this consolation race can be lost in the first furlong when there is a big field (as in 2016-18 with the three winners by stall 16, 11, 19).
What happens is that they start right across the track but the wide and middle draw forces its way across early on and the low numbers, which go clear in smaller fields, are buried down the rail.
East Asia was my 33-1 ante-post bet (to one point win) for the Plate on the back of his 17lb climb up the ranks in only around five weeks.
He comes from stall 8, and I hope he gets cover down that rail without being suffocated, but I clearly need to get a bit wider out for my second bet.
I’ve been impressed by the form of Blow Your Horn, who’s got the speed to be put anywhere in a race, and is superbly bred for fast ground by Golden Horn out of the family of Arc winner Urban Sea.
There are plenty of opportunities for such an animal so it is significant that he is stepped up in trip for this by a trainer who has won the race before and has booked Jamie Spencer, who is an artist at extricating his mount from the mauling of a big field.
BETDAQ value 5.2 East Asia, 13.0 Blow Your Horn
IT’S ON A PLATE FOR TRUE CLASS
⭕ 3.30 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate) STATS: 4, 5, 6yo 9-10. Rating 96 to 107; last nine years: 101, 102, 96, 104, 99, 107, 99, 101, 98. The stats 1-2-3 (see yesterday) was The Maxwecan, Lucky Deal and Dubious Affair.
There’s no doubt that Mark Johnston has a good hand with Lucky Deal and The Maxwecan, backed up by Hochfield and Watersmeet, but I’m loathe to reject Mlldenberger as a front-runner, as others have done,.
He certainly takes a keen hold but is a tracker as well as a leader and his narrow defeat over the CD by Nayef Road in the Group-3 Sagaro Stakes is eye-catching (Rainbow Dreamer and Alright Sunshine behind).
Trueshan is a Group-2 winner at Ascot (soft), who missed the royal meeting because of the firm ground. Lightly raced and used to big weights but would be the highest rated horse ever to win a British handicap.
That’s where Gary Moore’s 5lb claimer, Rhys Clutterbuck, comes in. Like Mildenberger, Trueshan has a high cruising speed, and I think the pair can defy the stats.
Australis is 10lb higher than when second last year (Rainbow Dreamer 5th, Rajinsky 7th, Reshoun 8th, Just Hubert 11th) and it’s a better race this time around.
Dubious Affair and Global Storm were placed at Royal Ascot in a race which has produced only about 10% winners to runners for horses placed in the same race last year (see my table on Tuesday).
BETDAQ value 5.3 Trueshan, 19.5 Mildenberger
FRANKIE SWOOP FOR THE EAGLE
⭕ 3.45 The Curragh (Irish Derby) STATS; Aidan O’Brien has won six in the decade; winning ratings 103-124; stalls: 7-10 drawn 1 to 5.
Mac Swiney was always going to be top-rated, as a Classic winner already (2,000 Guineas); only fourth in the Epsom Derby but his chance would be improved if we knew he would do better on today’s sound surface. Both Guineas and Derby were on the soft.
But a sound surface may help those in front of him at Epsom. That result may be suspect in any case, because Mojo Star (struck into) and Hurricane Lane (lost front shoes), both seem to have had mishaps during the race.
Yibir, a close third in the Sandown Classic trial to ‘Ascot Derby’ winner Alenquer and subsequent Epsom hero Adayar, with Lone Eagle fourth, was hammered four lengths by Lone Eagle afterwards at Goodwood in the Cocked Hat Stakes, the final test before Epsom.
I fancy Lone Eagle win and place in a reverse of my stats 1-2-3, so that Lone Eagle wins from High Definition and Mac Swiney.
BETDAQ value 9.4 Lone Eagle
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Newmarket (win 20, win 22)
BET 4pts win CACHET
BET 1pt win CHOUX
2.55 Newcastle
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win EAST ASIA
BET 4pts (to win 50) BLOW YOUR HORN
3.15 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 4.35pts win MOTAKHAYYEL
BET 3.5pts win ROYAL CRUSADE
3.30 Newcastle (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 12pts win TRUESHAN (nap)
BET 2.75pts win MILDENBERGER
3.45 The Curragh (win 50 bull’s-eye bet, place 10)
BET 6pts win and 4pts place LONE EAGLE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
